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Old 09-08-2010, 07:25 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,961,908 times
Reputation: 7118

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Let us hope, pray, cross our fingers that this holds for November.

Study: Democratic turnout for primaries lowest in 80 years - On Politics: Covering the US Congress, Governors, and the 2010 Election - USATODAY.com
http://www.american.edu/media/news/2...terstitialskip

Quote:
For the first time since 1930, more Republican voters showed up to vote in statewide primaries this year than Democrats -- another sign of the huge challenges facing President Obama's party in this year's elections.

Gans looked at 35 primaries held before Sept. 1 and found that 4 million more Republicans voted than Democrats -- statistical proof of the "enthusiasm gap" that pollsters and pundits have been talking about.
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:32 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
Reputation: 3826
Yeah, I'm guessing that Dems are less invigorated to vote and are willing to concede their party's control over the house and senate, and are secretly hoping for a Republican majority just so there'll be a more Clinton like atmosphere of roadblocks plugging the hole on spending. Opinion polls from unlikely voters will be exceedingly meaningless in the coming weeks because few of the youth will want to wait in the rain and the cold to vote for someone they're only lukewarm about.
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,211 posts, read 9,434,359 times
Reputation: 1895

It might hold. Not only is the economy bad, but Progressives are upset with Obama, he's abandoned his base. These are the same people who donated to and worked for him in 2008. I frequent liberal boards and many are talking about sending a message.

This is shaping up to be a prime Republican year. Chances like this don't come along all the time. If you don't take control of both chambers of Congress you should consider it a loss.
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
Reputation: 3826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
It might hold. Not only is the economy bad, but Progressives are upset with Obama, he's abandoned his base. These are the same people who donated to and worked for him in 2008. I frequent liberal boards and many are talking about sending a message.

This is shaping up to be a prime Republican year. Chances like this don't come along all the time. If you don't take control of both chambers of Congress you should consider it a loss.
I doubt the republicans will consider much a loss. They'll be gaining plenty of seats. Might be a moderate victory, might be a complete slaughter. They won't care about how high you set the bar.
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:38 AM
 
604 posts, read 751,061 times
Reputation: 274

Why not just solve the problem?
Get rid of all Congressmen, and destroy the GOP and Democratic Party--and any other "party"//political machine

And THEN vote? A house divided against itself cannot stand...
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:45 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,211 posts, read 9,434,359 times
Reputation: 1895
Quote:
Originally Posted by summers73 View Post
I doubt the republicans will consider much a loss. They'll be gaining plenty of seats. Might be a moderate victory, might be a complete slaughter. They won't care about how high you set the bar.
In other words, you're now lowering the bar. lol

Picking up seats is one thing, taking control is something else.

People like Larry Sabato, who has an excellent track record, is currently forecasting a pick up of 47 seats in the House, 8-9 in the Senate.

That puts the Republicans on the cusp of taking complete control of Congress. Anything less has to be considered a loss.

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » SIXTY DAYS TO GO
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
20,054 posts, read 18,291,205 times
Reputation: 3826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
In other words, you're now lowering in the bar. lol
It's impossible to say how many seats will be picked up, so no bar can realistically be set.

Quote:
Picking up seats is one thing, taking control is something else.
Yep.

Quote:
People like Larry Sabato, who has an excellent track record, is currently forecasting a pick up of 47 seats in the House, 8-9 in the Senate.
Larry who?

Quote:
That puts the Republicans on the cusp of taking complete control of Congress. Anything less has to be considered a loss.
To you and you alone.

Larry who?
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Old 09-08-2010, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Washington state
7,211 posts, read 9,434,359 times
Reputation: 1895
Quote:
Originally Posted by summers73 View Post
It's impossible to say how many seats will be picked up, so no bar can realistically be set.

Yep.

Larry who?

To you and you alone.

Larry who?
I suppose you don't know who Nate Silver is either?

See, the fact that you have no idea who these people are, is one reason I don't take your Lawson baloney seriously.

Here's Sabato, in 2008, predicting Obama and the Democrats win..

Sabato Predicts Obama Landslide, Big Democratic Gains in Congress

Sabato's success in 2006:

http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/new...se.php?id=1031
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Old 09-08-2010, 09:05 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,961,908 times
Reputation: 7118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
It might hold. Not only is the economy bad, but Progressives are upset with Obama, he's abandoned his base. These are the same people who donated to and worked for him in 2008. I frequent liberal boards and many are talking about sending a message.

This is shaping up to be a prime Republican year. Chances like this don't come along all the time. If you don't take control of both chambers of Congress you should consider it a loss.
Yeah, the Left would LOVE to put out that narrative and meme.

NO ONE thought 3 months ago and even today, that the GOP could take the Senate - talking 12 SEATS.

But there are some pollsters and pundits who think the Senate could flip, if ALL 16 races split for the GOP.

A very tall order and NOT likely to happen.
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Old 09-08-2010, 09:07 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,961,908 times
Reputation: 7118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Upton View Post
In other words, you're now lowering the bar. lol

Picking up seats is one thing, taking control is something else.

People like Larry Sabato, who has an excellent track record, is currently forecasting a pick up of 47 seats in the House, 8-9 in the Senate.

That puts the Republicans on the cusp of taking complete control of Congress. Anything less has to be considered a loss.

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » SIXTY DAYS TO GO
But wait!! You're using a right-leaning analyst to bolster the argument?

Why not take Nate, or Cook, or pollster.com or any of a number of dem-leaners, who will tell you that the Senate is a TALL order and NO ONE thought it would even be in play, until just recently.
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