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I find this interesting considering some of the polls. Looks like the Republican celebrations may be a bit premature.
Thing is, Lichtman has never been wrong. The keys he uses to make his predictions are listed in the article..
Quote:
Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.
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Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row.
Well that does it for me, why even have an election?
That is a good point. We might all want to go to the nearest fortune teller as well; see what the crystal ball says. we know that is always right as well.
Under normal circumstances, any incumbent President would probably lose in this economy. It should mean that the Republicans would be virtually guaranteed success if they put forth any truly viable candidate.
It's their election to lose, and they seem keen on trying to lose it by simply being unable to field a viable candidate that appeals to both moderates and independents as well as the right wing loonies that seem to have inordinate influence over the party these days.
It's pretty hard to argue with his points. The number one thing to cause Obama to win would be if Perry wins the nomination. If this happens, four more years of Obama. A good ol' boy from either side cannot win a presidential election at this point, in my opinion.
The last time I read the Constitution, the US government has three branches.
The legislative branch, or Congress, consisting of the Senate and House of Representatives, proposes and approves bills, including the government budget, to be signed into law.
The executive branch, or president, proposes and signs bills approved by Congress into law, and executes the laws.
Politically, it is still a long time to November 2012, the republican candidates so far at least, either do not inspire or are (is) probably unelectable, and the economy could be on an upward trajectory.
Some of the US electorate is not as dumb as it looks.
A not unlikely scenario is that Obama retains the presidency, the republicans maintain their majority in the House, and the republicans maintain more than 41 seats in the senate or possible achieve a small minority.
What is less malignant about such a result is that one faction can block the excesses of the other faction (like the horrid health car law of 2010, shoved down the people's throats by a super majority of one faction), exactly what the Constitution was designed to do.
If the economy continues to sputter and Obama fails to be re-elected because of that issue, then it may be better if the democrats maintain at least 41 seats in the Senate, if not a small minority.
As much as I cannot stand Obama, I tend to agree with the assessment. I didn’t know this guy was out there but these are similar to things I have looked at.
I would argue that on point 7 (Policy Change), While Obama has affected change, I would argue that this doesn’t score him serious points as it would otherwise do. Those changes have caused him serious issues and they are not universally popular. I would move this from win for Obama to push/undecided at this point.
on point 8 (social unrest), I would argue that the rise of the Tea Party is proof of social unrest on a certain level. again, this is more push/undecided in my view.
on all other points, I think this guy is right and Obama will be very hard to defeat. I do think there is time for things to sour for Obama and conversely there is time for the economy to get better. if the later happens, Obama wins big.
"A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”
Um, what? 7 samples is 'beyond statistical significance'? This guy has no sense of statistics, does he?
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