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Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).
The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as 'very conservative' and Romney's getting only 26% with them. But he's still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as 'very conservative,' Romney's at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.
It's not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.
Exactly, what I have been noticing also. I don't buy that him getting out would help Santorum all that much. I think it would help Romney.
With Mittens polling in the mid 20's in both states among the "very conservative" how could you think that Mittens would not be hurt? Face it Santorum and Newt are splitting the conservative vote, they are the anybody but Mittens. Newt is doing Mittens a favor by staying in the race, if he dropped out Santorum would be mopping the floors with Mittens.
With Mittens polling in the mid 20's in both states among the "very conservative" how could you think that Mittens would not be hurt? Face it Santorum and Newt are splitting the conservative vote, they are the anybody but Mittens. Newt is doing Mittens a favor by staying in the race, if he dropped out Santorum would be mopping the floors with Mittens.
I disagree, but I think we will soon see, because I am pretty sure Newt is running out of money fast.
Newt's dream of a 5th resurgence will be crushed tomorrow when he barely wins/barely loses one or both Southern primaries.
With Santorum in the race and splitting the conservative vote, if Newt wins it is a win, I do agree if he loses, it is a the END.
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