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Forget the polls. Too early, too noisy. It is a tight race and everyone knows it. In the end, the electoral math is so much in Obama's favor that it is unlikely that Romney will win. Obama has many paths to victory that are plausible or even likely. Romney has far fewer and they are long shots at best.
Romney is basking in the afterglow of his opponents dropping out and his wins in the primaries. Once the mud slinging begins in the fall, he will be stung as people get to know him just like he was in the primaries. In contrast, there is little bad about Obama that the Republicans have not yet said - again and again and again so the negative ads will have less impact on him.
I don't understand this as a counterargument? 21 EVs is very important to both camps, particularly when Obama is almost certainly losing Indiana and North Carolina (26 EVs) this election cycle.
But hey - if the Obama strategy this election cycle is to ignore states with less than x EVs, then I will be interested to see the results.
That's not established and Democrats normally don't win North Carolina. The magic number is 270. Obama won in 2008 with 370. No Republican has won in modern times without Ohio and Florida and Obama leads in Ohio.
Besides, it's not even clear that Obama would lose North Carolina. This poll said he leads 49-44.
The Republicans here are projecting their own disdain for Obama onto the whole country, thinking that the whole nation thinks like Obama-hating Republicans.
^Obama barely won NC in 2008. This election cycle, with the Republicans controlling the legislature for the first time since the 19th century, an incumbent Democratic governor that is not running for re-election, and Democratic turnout less enthusiastic, NC is very likely to go Republican this election cycle.
I have played scenarios with 270towin.com. If Romney picks up Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada, that creates a 269-269 tie. There is no doubt that Romney/the GOP have a very tough road to victory. But it isn't impossible, especially a few of them like Indiana, North Carolina, and even Florida. Heck, even Virginia is going to be a little tough for Obama to defend, especially if suburban and rural Republicans get energized. If the House remains within Republican hands (which odds say will happen, even if the majority is reduced), Romney wins.
That's not established and Democrats normally don't win North Carolina. The magic number is 270. Obama won in 2008 with 370. No Republican has won in modern times without Ohio and Florida and Obama leads in Ohio.
Besides, it's not even clear that Obama would lose North Carolina. This poll said he leads 49-44.
The Republicans here are projecting their own disdain for Obama onto the whole country, thinking that the whole nation thinks like Obama-hating Republicans.
The NC poll is pre-amendment 1 and nearly 2 months ago.
The NC poll is pre-amendment 1 and nearly 2 months ago.
It was in April. Are you really complaining about the date of the poll when we haven't even gotten to the conventions? This entire thread is pre-mature!
The NC poll is pre-amendment 1 and nearly 2 months ago.
I seriously doubt Amendment 1 will be a big deal except for potentially seeing how the againstcrowd votes.
Simply put the people for Amendment 1 who are white will mostly vote for Romney regardless and the people who were for Amendment 1 who are Black and Native American will mostly vote for Obama regardless.
It is the against voters who will be interesting since a lot of toss up suburban areas were strongly against Amendment one and have traditionally gone both ways in R/D races.
For an interesting comparison look at these two maps from Wake county which is arguably one of the most important in NC. (The first is the 2008 election, the second is the 2012 amendment).
As you can see in 2008 Obama loses the anti amendment white areas in the North, South and East of the county. Obama wins the predominently black pro amendment areas in the center east portion of the county, but in the toss up center, center west, and west portions of the county the Amendment fails dramatically, but the voters are split between McCain and Obama.
Last edited by Randomstudent; 05-31-2012 at 10:32 AM..
I seriously doubt Amendment 1 will be a big deal except for potentially seeing how the againstcrowd votes.
Simply put the people for Amendment 1 who are white will mostly vote for Romney regardless and the people who were for Amendment 1 who are Black and Native American will mostly vote for Obama regardless.
It is the against voters who will be interesting since a lot of toss up suburban areas were strongly against Amendment one and have traditionally gone both ways in R/D races.
For an interesting comparison look at these two maps from Wake county which is arguably one of the most important in NC. (The first is the 2008 election, the second is the 2012 amendment).
As you can see in 2008 Obama loses the anti amendment white areas in the North, South and East of the county. Obama wins the predominently black pro amendment areas in the center east portion of the county, but in the toss up center, center west, and west portions of the county the Amendment fails dramatically, but the voters are split between McCain and Obama.
Are you still clinging to the idea that Oblama is going to win North Carolina again? If so, I'm highly amused.
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