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We have seen no end of polls by various unknown entities, often nothing more credible than a Poli Sci class at a small liberal arts college. So today, the latest iteration of the NBC/WSJ poll is out and guess what? Very little change. Obama still leads by less than the MOE. BUT, and it's big one, Obama is pulling away in the swing states. It seems exposing the real Romney record at Bain is a very effective approach for Obama. Romney continues to lag badly in the all-important likability ratings. Not great news, but pretty good all considered for Obama.
We have seen no end of polls by various unknown entities, often nothing more credible than a Poli Sci class at a small liberal arts college. So today, the latest iteration of the NBC/WSJ poll is out and guess what? Very little change. Obama still leads by less than the MOE. BUT, and it's big one, Obama is pulling away in the swing states. Romney continues to lag badly in the all-important likability ratings. Not great news, but pretty good all considered for Obama.
We may expect to see the polls all over the map from here on. The only consistent thing is that the two candidates seem to be in a dead heat.
I believe that PPP and Rasmussen polls have been the most accurate at predicting winners in recent years. MSNBC/WSJ? Not sure on that one. One thing we know is that just being considered biased doesn't make you inaccurate. I would expect MSNBC to be about as biased as Fox News but in the opposite direction. Ultimately, if the science of your poll is good, even Fox and MSNBC can produce pretty accurate results.
We've seen precious few polls where either candidate leads by more than the margin of error. Popular vote should be incredibly close if these trends hold.
We may expect to see the polls all over the map from here on. The only consistent thing is that the two candidates seem to be in a dead heat.
I believe that PPP and Rasmussen polls have been the most accurate at predicting winners in recent years. MSNBC/WSJ? Not sure on that one. One thing we know is that just being considered biased doesn't make you inaccurate. I would expect MSNBC to be about as biased as Fox News but in the opposite direction. Ultimately, if the science of your poll is good, even Fox and MSNBC can produce pretty accurate results.
We've seen precious few polls where either candidate leads by more than the margin of error. Popular vote should be incredibly close if these trends hold.
While I agree with you on the value of polls at this point, let me make it clear that this is not an "MSNBC" poll. It is a collaborative poll with NBC News and the Wall Street Journal. There is input and commentary from both Dem and Rep pollsters in the poll. The overall accuracy is probably less significant at this stage of the game than the fact that the poll is conducted at regular intervals using repetitive methods. That may allow for trend inference.
And yes, it is certainly a toss up right now. I have to admit, however, I was somewhat surprised to see Obama hanging in there after the rather bad month he had politically.
We may expect to see the polls all over the map from here on. The only consistent thing is that the two candidates seem to be in a dead heat.
I believe that PPP and Rasmussen polls have been the most accurate at predicting winners in recent years. MSNBC/WSJ? Not sure on that one. One thing we know is that just being considered biased doesn't make you inaccurate. I would expect MSNBC to be about as biased as Fox News but in the opposite direction. Ultimately, if the science of your poll is good, even Fox and MSNBC can produce pretty accurate results.
We've seen precious few polls where either candidate leads by more than the margin of error. Popular vote should be incredibly close if these trends hold.
The popular vote means nothing which is the premise of the thread. If Romney loses the swing states he currently trails in he loses no matter how big he takes the red states.
The popular vote means nothing which is the premise of the thread. If Romney loses the swing states he currently trails in he loses no matter how big he takes the red states.
Very true. Conventional wisdom says it's almost unwinnable if he doesn't take both Ohio and Florida. Things are looking extremely close in both states, but Obama has held onto a lead in both.
Romney has to come from behind to win this election. As long as the economy stays in the toilet, there's a very good chance of that. Then again Romney is threatening in states that one would have thought were gimmies for Obama: Wisconsin and Michigan. If he manages to take either state, it changes things tremendously. Romney still would need Florida, but with Michigan and Wisconsin, he could lose Ohio and still win the 270 electoral votes needed. Right now, RCP has Obama with 221, Romeny with 170 and 147 as toss-ups. No matter how it turns out, it should be an interesting election to follow.
Wouldn't it be interesting if New Hampshire or Colorado were the states where the election was won?
Are you worried that this poll apparently over sampled liberals?
In real life, Obama had 53% and McCain 46% of the vote in 2008.
Of the people in this poll who voted and remembered, Obama has 55% and McCain 40%.
So Obama +7% in real life, but +15% in this poll say they voted for Obama over McCain. Doesn't that give you some pause as to declaring this poll more accurate than all others when they clearly oversampled 2008 Obama supporters compared to 2008 McCain supporters?
Additionally, isn't it bothersome that the people in this poll give Obama a +15 margin for Obama over McCain, but only a +3 margin for Obama over Romney. It appears as if Romney is flipping some voters and getting some new voters based on this poll - does it not?
We have seen no end of polls by various unknown entities, often nothing more credible than a Poli Sci class at a small liberal arts college. So today, the latest iteration of the NBC/WSJ poll is out and guess what? Very little change. Obama still leads by less than the MOE. BUT, and it's big one, Obama is pulling away in the swing states. It seems exposing the real Romney record at Bain is a very effective approach for Obama. Romney continues to lag badly in the all-important likability ratings. Not great news, but pretty good all considered for Obama.
I'm sorry this poll offers no insight into swing states. It is a national poll of 1000 people across the country.
I fail to see how it is better than a PPP or Rasmussen state poll.
Not sure about the robustness of the poll. However, this is an interesting contrast.
"In addition, a majority of Romney supporters – 58 percent – say their vote is more against Obama than for Romney. That’s compared to a whopping 72 percent of Obama supporters who say their vote is more for Obama than against Romney."
I think it means many of us respect Obama's leadership. Romney has yet to gain a strong following.
We may expect to see the polls all over the map from here on. The only consistent thing is that the two candidates seem to be in a dead heat.
I believe that PPP and Rasmussen polls have been the most accurate at predicting winners in recent years. MSNBC/WSJ? Not sure on that one. One thing we know is that just being considered biased doesn't make you inaccurate. I would expect MSNBC to be about as biased as Fox News but in the opposite direction. Ultimately, if the science of your poll is good, even Fox and MSNBC can produce pretty accurate results.
We've seen precious few polls where either candidate leads by more than the margin of error. Popular vote should be incredibly close if these trends hold.
I think that the polls will be pretty useless until the debates. That said, Romney has to get some message out. He's trying to be more evasive than Bush during his 2004 campaign. I couldn't tell you what he stands for and I read a lot of newspapers.
The poll has 42% calling themselves a Democrat and 38% Republican.
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