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Old 07-14-2012, 09:11 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,972,963 times
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As of 1/21/2013, even if one only credits GOP Senate gain by the absolute 4 or so Democratic dead ducks, they would have gained 12 seats in 4 years, going from no say (40 votes) to the majority, gained several dozen House seats to make Peloser the minority leader, and now control the vast majority of governor seats, and in many states, all the governing statewide chambers.

With 21 Dem Senators up for grabs, realistically GOP seats will exceed 55, and simply by getting a few conservative Dem votes, the filibuster is not effective.

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Old 07-14-2012, 10:47 PM
 
Location: CHicago, United States
6,933 posts, read 8,495,383 times
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Yes, it's been an exceptionally good period for the GOP. My assumption is that Democrats will continue to outnumber the GOP in the Senate, and pick-up a few seats in the House. I see a Obama victory, also.
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Old 07-14-2012, 10:55 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,972,963 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gomexico View Post
Yes, it's been an exceptionally good period for the GOP. My assumption is that Democrats will continue to outnumber the GOP in the Senate, and pick-up a few seats in the House. I see a Obama victory, also.
Dems are doomed in the Senate this year. 21 running, and 4 are dead ducks. GOP has 48 before adding those 4.

GOP only needs to defend 6 seats this year.

the only question is can GOP get to 57 or 58, where adding a few conserv Dems means filibuster cannot happen.
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Old 07-15-2012, 12:37 AM
 
Location: NC
9,984 posts, read 10,394,292 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Dems are doomed in the Senate this year. 21 running, and 4 are dead ducks. GOP has 48 before adding those 4.

GOP only needs to defend 6 seats this year.

the only question is can GOP get to 57 or 58, where adding a few conserv Dems means filibuster cannot happen.
There are also a lot of GOPers in trouble.

The GOP is going to lose Maine, and the Dems have a good shot in Nevada, Mass. Ind. and possibly Ariz. mean while the Tea Party is looking to sink a sure bet pickup for Republicans in Wisc. with their crazy just like they sank a sure bet hold in Indiana.
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Old 07-15-2012, 03:00 AM
 
Location: Cape Coral
5,503 posts, read 7,335,790 times
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Without getting rid of Obama all else is meaningless. He has become the dictator of the United States. He is legislating through executive orders and regulations. He does not abide by any law.
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Old 07-15-2012, 08:41 AM
 
Location: Hometown of Jason Witten
5,985 posts, read 4,379,635 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomstudent View Post
There are also a lot of GOPers in trouble.

The GOP is going to lose Maine, and the Dems have a good shot in Nevada, Mass. Ind. and possibly Ariz. mean while the Tea Party is looking to sink a sure bet pickup for Republicans in Wisc. with their crazy just like they sank a sure bet hold in Indiana.
If the GOP loses Olympia Snowe, they haven't lost much.
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Old 07-15-2012, 09:13 AM
 
30,065 posts, read 18,670,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Dems are doomed in the Senate this year. 21 running, and 4 are dead ducks. GOP has 48 before adding those 4.

GOP only needs to defend 6 seats this year.

the only question is can GOP get to 57 or 58, where adding a few conserv Dems means filibuster cannot happen.
Agreed. It almost makes the whitehouse irrelevant, as the House and Senate could over-ride Obama's veto of essentially everything.

I would offer that Obamacare will probably be gone, even if, in the very unlikely scenario that Obama is re-elected.

People are upset about the poor economic record of Obama and will take their vengence in the polls. Most likely, the republicans will have the senate, congress, and the white house. However, if Obama is re-elected (it's the economy), he will be unable to do anything. I would imagine that the congress and senate would introduce legislation to even overturn most executive orders.
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Old 07-15-2012, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Eastern NC
20,868 posts, read 23,558,348 times
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And we all know what happened the last time repubs had control of all houses.
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Old 07-15-2012, 10:42 AM
 
1,182 posts, read 1,139,996 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
As of 1/21/2013, even if one only credits GOP Senate gain by the absolute 4 or so Democratic dead ducks, they would have gained 12 seats in 4 years, going from no say (40 votes) to the majority, gained several dozen House seats to make Peloser the minority leader, and now control the vast majority of governor seats, and in many states, all the governing statewide chambers.

With 21 Dem Senators up for grabs, realistically GOP seats will exceed 55, and simply by getting a few conservative Dem votes, the filibuster is not effective.

The seats that the GOP will likely pick up are those of conservative Democrats. There will not be any left after 2012. So the fillibuster will remain in full effect. And lots of those Senate races that the GOP seems to think they will just win are not going to turn the way they think. I predict that they will only pick up a few states like Nebraska and Montana which are red states anyway and maybe Wisconsin. And some of that will be offset because I think the Democrats are going to surprise and shock with pick ups in Mass, Conn and they will hold on in Florida and Missouri. And in Maine an independent, Angus King, might even win that race and his views, while conservative on a few things, are often more in line with the Democrats and he did support Obama. So you Republicans need not count your turkeys until they hatch.
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Old 07-15-2012, 10:44 AM
 
1,182 posts, read 1,139,996 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rikoshaprl View Post
Without getting rid of Obama all else is meaningless. He has become the dictator of the United States. He is legislating through executive orders and regulations. He does not abide by any law.
He does what every President before him as done. It is called outflanking your enemies. If they fillibuster your appointments, you make recess appointments. If they block your programs, you use the regulatory power you have to bypass them. Reagan did it, Clinton did it and Bush did it.
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