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[LEFT]It’s too early for Republicans to start popping corks or for Democrats to start hanging crepe, but a new Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll should buoy the former and depress the latter. The survey shows Mitt Romney capturing 49% of the vote, while President Obama enjoys support from 44% of the electorate.
Taken in isolation the survey might be seen as an outlier. But a Gallup survey, released on Wednesday, seems to lend some external credence. It shows Democratic voting enthusiasm sharply down from 2008 and the same metric for Republicans markedly up. Whereas 61% of Dems claimed to be enthusiastic at the time of Obama’s first run, only 39% are enthusiastic now. For Republicans, the corresponding percentages are 35 and 51.
The winner of the electoral vote and the national popular vote have different in exactly one election since 1888....in 2000, when there were also more EV's in "safe/lean" Democratic states than in "safe/lean" Republican states but the Republican still won the EV despite losing the national popular vote. Not to mention it was an extremely close election in terms of both the national popular vote and EV. And that map doesn't show Obama anywhere near 270 anyway.
If Romney wins the popular vote, he will likely win in the electoral college and is almost certain to if he wins by more than about 1 point. The same goes for Obama...who could also narrowly lose the EV even while narrowly winning the popular vote - despite his perceived electoral college advantage.
I have to admire the perennial hope among some of the Romney supporters. It's nice that you can suspend reality like that.
Obama - lower approval than any incumbent president has ever been re-elected with, including in most of the battleground states (if predicting the election using his current approval state by state, which is actually historically a good predictor, Romney would win 340-350 EV's)
Lower consumer confidence than any incumbent president has ever been re-elected with
I can go on and on.
You Obama lovers suspend reality all the time. Reality = either candidate could win
Nah. It's not that important to me. I just know what all of the electoral maps look like, and they all show at least a slight lead for Obama.
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