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I reject the idea that polling firms skew the results. These firms earn money by being accurate and skewing a poll hurts their credibility and bottom line.
Nah individual outfits have demonstrated house tilts over x number of polls. What's funny is the same people decrying bias here are the same ones constantly spamming the forum with polls favoring their boss. Granted that's their job with their boss's campaign, but still, it's funny.
Believe it or not, statistics is a science and can provide accurate and repeatable results.
That's why the candidates use polling, and count on as much accuracy as possible in the results. It is vitally important for the candidates to know where they are weak as much as where they are strong, and where they are falling behind or gaining the lead. The candidates must know the bad as much as the good if they intend to win.
When it comes to publicly released polls, there is some skewing, but only in the interpretation of the polling results when all the indices are very close. When the results are very clear, the professional polls report them as they are.
Remember that a good reputation for accuracy counts. Accurate professionally conducted polls are never free; creating one requires a very carefully constructed set of standards which will reveal the questions the pollsters are hired to determine, and that costs a lot of money.
Polling is a multi-million dollar business, and is not restricted to only politics. Polling organizations conduct most of their business outside the political arena, and some polling outfits prefer to stay clear out of politics. If a poll is found to be false, in any number of ways, it can be instant death for the company. Second chances simply do not happen in this biz.
Polling is a multi-million dollar business, and is not restricted to only politics. Polling organizations conduct most of their business outside the political arena, and some polling outfits prefer to stay clear out of politics. If a poll is found to be false, in any number of ways, it can be instant death for the company. Second chances simply do not happen in this biz.
Man. Zogby. They were right on the money twice then totally blew it in 2008. it just goes to show the more sophisticated the technology is, the bigger the undiscovered bomb inside may be, if there is one. Another polling outfit bought the rubble from the Zogby brothers, and have put them back into shape after 2008, but the Zogby name is no longer first on the letterhead.
Zogby did, at one time, have the far and away the best data base going early in the century. Their 2002 accuracy rate was astonishingly high.
Even the link from the link where it is supposed to tell you how many Democrats, Republicans, and Independents were called doesn't mention it.
Historically, when that information is ascertained, it turns out the poll is skewed in favor of Democrats.
The fact that they don't TELL us that, is rather suspicious in itself.
A poll of registered voters and Dems have an advantage nationally among registered voters. Yet Dems are lazy so that doesn't mean they'll turn up at the polls. Yet the Libs lose their minds to delirium because Reuters shows a 7 point lead. Gallup has it tied. NY Times has Obama down 5 in Colorado one of his must win states. Wisconsin is hurtling into tossup category. I mean really libs we haven't even got a a VP pick, convention or debates and you're already crowning the great one again.
Since you Dems like identity politics so much let's take a look at a little map. There are four states listed as tossups where the White's make up 80% plus of the population (Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire) All states Obama won in '08 Obama is running sub 40% among Whites. I don't care what the polls say I bet Obama loses all 4 states including Wisconsin based on this fact alone when it's all said and done. If that happens it's lights out Obamaniacs.
Since you Dems like identity politics so much let's take a look at a little map. There are four states listed as tossups where the White's make up 80% plus of the population (Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire) All states Obama won in '08 Obama is running sub 40% among Whites. I don't care what the polls say I bet Obama loses all 4 states including Wisconsin based on this fact alone when it's all said and done. If that happens it's lights out Obamaniacs.
Obama could lose all of those states (ignoring the fact that he's leading all of them), plus Indiana and North Carolina, and still win with 294 EV. You need a bigger miracle.
Obama could lose all of those states (ignoring the fact that he's leading all of them), plus Indiana and North Carolina, and still win with 294 EV. You need a bigger miracle.
Deduct Florida too Obama has more paths to victory for sure.
Obama down 5 in Colorado one of his must win states
Except it isn't.
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