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I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.
The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.
I had to explain to my 11 year old son last night why it's improper to assume his Language Arts teacher (who is Black) voted for Obama, simply because she is Black. It's hard sometimes teaching your kids proper ettiquette, when you have to lie to them to teach them the proper moral/value.
I wonder if the Dem would have won had the Republican candidate been Black?
In 2016 when there will likely be two white candidates again, the black turnout will be back to '04 levels.
And the Latino increase will offset that.
Last night, Obama won Latinos by 44%. They made up 12 million voters. That is plus 5 million Obama Latinos (Double his popular vote spread).
Expect the 12 million to be up 1-2 million minimum over 4 years. That means, while the Midwest may not stay blue, New Mexico and Colorado are going to stay blue.
19 states have been blue 6 times in a row, with 243 electoral votes. Add NM, Colorado, and Nevada, and the GOP must must must get back to 43's 39% Latino vote percentage. You cannot start your opponent off with 260 plus electoral votes, and expect to win.
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Dick Morris explains -- why I was wrong about the 2012 election
