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As you all know, I am by no means a Trump supporter. I find his behavior downright rude and condescending. His ideas are xenophobic and bigoted, and appeal to those that want to enforce that. He's an over-the-top narcissist who lies with ease. He's a known misogynist who values women only for how hot they are (which is why his daughter is "valued.") His business deals haven't exactly been that successful. He has very little clear policy proposals, and is mostly appealing to his cult of personality. That being said, as of this date (May 24, 2016), I'm giving Trump a 70% chance of winning the presidential election. Here's why:
1. Trump isn't stupid. People are generally opposed to his xenophobia, bigotry, and misogyny. He's going to tone it down in the next few months, because he's a narcissist who probably will be willing to say mostly anything to get elected. If he doesn't tone it down with the insults and barbs, I would greatly lower the chances of him being elected, but it's not a given that he will continue.
2. This election isn't just about conservative versus liberal, it's about keeping the system versus destroying the system. Clinton is about keeping the system, as were most of Trump's mainstream Republican challengers. Even Cruz, while ultraconservative, was part of the system. It's arguable that Carson and Fiona wanted to get rid of the system as well, but they were too enmeshed in social conventions as it were. The only other candidate that wants to destroy the system is Sanders. There are major indications that many Sanders supporters find it a bigger priority to get rid of the system than to support liberal policies, and many of them will end up backing Trump over Clinton.
3. People hate Clinton. Like, absolutely hate her. People don't really hate Trump - for a long time, he was an amusing over-the-top figure who fired people on "The Apprentice." They may not like his ideas, but they don't hate the man. With Clinton, it's different. Most Republicans have a 20+ year long all encompassing disdain for her. Most men, including independent and liberal leaning ones, can't stand her. When it comes to having to vote for Clinton to "save face," many people won't be able to do it. They'd rather stay home. Of course, some it comes off honestly - she is a known liar and likely criminal, but so is Trump for that matter. It's a no-win situation for many, and a lot of people who dislike Trump will stay home.
4. I'm not convinced that the states in play - namely Colorado and Virginia, are particularly favorable demographically for voters to prefer Clinton. Young professionals will not help - a state will need a lot of older women Democrats and minorities, and I'm not sure those groups are highly predominant in swing states outside of maybe Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania.
So with that being said, I don't like it, and I cringe at whatever it took to get here today, but I'm giving Trump a 70% chance of winning the election as of today. Excuse me while I vomit....
There's 100% chance that Trump will Win in November.
Hillary is unwilling to deal with job offshoring, crony capitalism, illegal immigration, Radical Islamic terrorism (she won't even use the term), Wall Street payola, and she wants to keep Obamacare which is killing the middle class. She willy nilly dismisses 10s of 1000s of American jobs because they don't fit her globalist agenda.
Her supporters can only spread FUD about Trump who is going to deal with every single issue above.
no, he isn't, but he is impulsive, reactionary and tends to ignore other's advice. i expect his insults, barbs and late night tweets to continue.
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2. This election isn't just about conservative versus liberal, it's about keeping the system versus destroying the system.
that i'm in agreement. as much as people across the political spectrum want change in our political system i don't thing it will result in the majority of voters gambling on an unknown ( and unhinged IMO ) quantity.
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3. People hate Clinton. Like, absolutely hate her. People don't really hate Trump -
i absolutely disagree. from my experience the level of hate/dislike/like for clinton tends to correlate to where a person sits on the political spectrum where as with trump i have met people on both sides of the isle that completely despise the man as a presidential candidate.
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4. I'm not convinced that the states in play - namely Colorado and Virginia, ...
i have not studied this point so i have no opinion.
Come back on Nov 9th (after you've cleaned up your barf).
We'll talk.
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