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Funny, my source shows that McCain won that district in 2008: 52%-47%. It narrowly went for Obama in 2012: 50%-49%. FL-13 has also had a GOP incumbent since 1983 (upon redistricting). The closest election margin for congress in the past 3 terms is 5.1% (50,000 votes). This one was much closer at roughly 1.9% (3457 votes).
Assuming those not affiliated split along the common percentage:
GOP: 211,911 -- 46.01%
Dem: 197,823 -- 42.95%
Essentially, the GOP has a built in 3% advantage yet only carried this special election by 1.9%. Also, Sink wasn't even a resident of the district which no doubt, along with low turnout, hurt her a bit. If you look at this from a basic statistical perspective, it is a referendum of nothing. The person with the statistical, 30 year party incumbency, and "home team" advantage won by a very unimpressive margin. Had it been 6+ points above party lines, you might have something to be excited about. The problem is, the victory was actually about 1.1 points below party lines. That is never considered to be promising.
You are looking at the old FL-13, which isn't this one. The district was renumbered after redistricting. In 2008 it was FL-10 which was won by Obama 51-47. After redistricting, the new FL-13 was made up of 84% of the old FL-10, and the overall dynamics changed little. Obama won the new district 51-48 as opposed to 51-47 under the old lines, it was then 50-49 in 2012.
Regardless, fact of the matter is this was a 2% race in a swing district that was previously held by a long term GOP incumbent. You really can't make any conclusions off of this or foreshadow how November may turn out.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather
I noticed one of your favorite mechanisms is to state, 'your .... blah, blah makes no sense...blah, blah.' I submit you are intuiting thoughts different than I committed to bits and bytes. I always knew pwogs possessed a level of knowledge and understanding we mere mortals, we conservatives do not.
So, first show me where I wrote, implied or inferred Sink should have won in a landslide. You cannot, because I did not. The definition of a swing district is that it can go either way, that there are elements to support the district going, or state going either way.
Indeed, this district meets the criteria of a swing district. I understand millennials fondness for polling, but Cook PVI is wrong in this case. Just as many polsters were wrong about Mr Romney's chances in 2012. Here is why.
A very long term incumbent gets elected precisely because she or he is an incumbent. In this case, Congressman Young happened to have been a Republican. Heck, he came of political age in a time when many Southern Republicans were former conservative Dems, as there districts had been.
Did the district continually reelect him because they liked the Republican brand, or because he was a long term incumbent? Good 'ol Bill Young, as the saying goes. Incumbency often becomes, regardless of party affiliation, a birth right, as opposed to a political leaning. This appears to be the case, since the past two elections showed the district to be blue, at least nationally, having gone for the President twice.
In this election there is a new candidate flying the red flag, against a blue candidate who was thought to have a good chance due to having won state-wide elected office under the blue banner and narrowly losing her last state-wide election, under the same banner. The red candidate could claim an association - loose as it was - with the dearly departed long term incumbent. That is his edge if any. But, he ain't good 'ol Bill. He is the red candidate.
Indeed, the election can be seen as relatively close, likely to be replayed in November. Can one say, the district is in play, could go either way? Is a swing district. Absolutely.
Oh, and work on that reading comprehension. "Landslide" never crossed my lips.
1. What's a pwog?
2. You asked where you said it would be a land slide, here you go
Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather
with a disporportionately 'senior' pop. Easy to scare the creepers with the Pubs are going to take your social away.
The dems had a lot going for them. But, no, Sink and her party line stunk and thus sunk.
Those are your words, not mine.
Your argument is you didnt say the specific word "landslide" but you claimed the Dems should have won easily.
The GOP and their party are a seriously desperate group to celebrate a single US House special election so resoundingly as if they are guaranteed to win all the future elections because of it. I guess you have to start somewhere. It was 48.4% vs. 46.6% for the winner. It could have gone the other way if a 3rd party candidate had not gotten 4.8% of the vote.
These are the small victories that will sustain what little remains of the GOP's relevance for the last 15-20 years of its existence. BTW, that view is shared by many observers and experts.
hehehehehe now this is funny
I did not watch this election but the dems said this guy was "flawed" he was out spent and was expected to loose
but he won
ooooops!
lets see how fast the dems who are left scurry to decry Obama care
Nov should be interesting indeed
You need a good bowel movement, taking a hyperbolic stick in the eye, sarcastic lmao comment at your and the rest of the pwogs (derisive reinterpretation of progressive), "It's not a precursor.". You know like pajama boy. "Oh, oh, oh!"
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
with a disporportionately 'senior' pop. Easy to scare the creepers with the Pubs are going to take your social away. Nothing about 'disporportionate senior' says landslide. Quite an over reach to support your over wrought reaction.
The dems had a lot going for them. But, no, Sink and her party line stunk and thus sunk.Clearly a play on words to any thinking individual. Really? This translates to landslide?
Good grief, you pwogs take yourself too seriously. You all need a good enema. Uptight and overwrought bunch of pajama boys. I got better things to do. Keep paying your taxes. I'm enjoying my retirement at your expense. Ha, ha, ha.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsjj251
1. What's a pwog?
2. You asked where you said it would be a land slide, here you go
Those are your words, not mine.
Your argument is you didnt say the specific word "landslide" but you claimed the Dems should have won easily.
You really want to stop with the mind-reading shtick. Nothing hear to see.
Good word paly. Repped you. Despite your misguided view of the world. Lots of fun.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55
The winning candidate was Jolly about the victory and seeing his opponent Sink. But if the GOP considers it a "big win" to narrowly squeak out a victory in a district that has been Republican for 60 years, it's in trouble.
Oh, it was a surprise for sure and a pretty nasty surprise at that. They even brought in the Big Dog to clinch this race for Sink. She had 10 times the money that Jolly had ...... it still wasn't enough.
This isn't as big a deal as when Scott Brown won in Massachusetts ..... but it is a "big deal".
Dems up for re-election were already worried, now they are terrified.
Sorry but this isn't a "big deal"! It's Tampa for christ's sake! A bunch of rednecks who live in mobile homes and drive SUVs.
Even that she almost won in a conservative part of the state. Remember what "Southern" state elected President Obama "twice"
Sorry but this isn't a "big deal"! It's Tampa for christ's sake! A bunch of rednecks who live in mobile homes and drive SUVs.
Even that she almost won in a conservative part of the state. Remember what "Southern" state elected President Obama "twice"
The folks in Tampa are a lot more mainstream than the limp-wristed freaks that flock to big cities like Miami. You don't have to question your gender identity to be considered normal. At least not yet.
Status:
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(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,560 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6042
Quote:
Originally Posted by earthlyfather
You need a good bowel movement, taking a hyperbolic stick in the eye, sarcastic lmao comment at your and the rest of the pwogs (derisive reinterpretation of progressive), "It's not a precursor.". You know like pajama boy. "Oh, oh, oh!"
Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
with a disporportionately 'senior' pop. Easy to scare the creepers with the Pubs are going to take your social away. Nothing about 'disporportionate senior' says landslide. Quite an over reach to support your over wrought reaction.
The dems had a lot going for them. But, no, Sink and her party line stunk and thus sunk.Clearly a play on words to any thinking individual. Really? This translates to landslide?
Good grief, you pwogs take yourself too seriously. You all need a good enema. Uptight and overwrought bunch of pajama boys. I got better things to do. Keep paying your taxes. I'm enjoying my retirement at your expense. Ha, ha, ha.
You really want to stop with the mind-reading shtick. Nothing hear to see.
1. Im a Liberal,not a Progressive
2. You can keep playing yourself, but your comment clearly that you thought the Democrats should win, and easily because they could scare seniors. Again, your words not mine.
Also, if you had better things to do, you wouldnt have been here in the first place, but you seem to have a knack for lying to yourself.
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