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Old 03-12-2014, 08:08 AM
 
4,587 posts, read 3,417,630 times
Reputation: 2612

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Quote:
Originally Posted by chessgeek View Post
The GOP and their party are a seriously desperate group to celebrate a single US House special election so resoundingly as if they are guaranteed to win all the future elections because of it. I guess you have to start somewhere. It was 48.4% vs. 46.6% for the winner. It could have gone the other way if a 3rd party candidate had not gotten 4.8% of the vote.

These are the small victories that will sustain what little remains of the GOP's relevance for the last 15-20 years of its existence. BTW, that view is shared by many observers and experts.
Because after all we must substitute the opinions of "many observers and experts" for our own judgement, like many a good liberal.
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Old 03-12-2014, 08:26 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,214 posts, read 19,507,211 times
Reputation: 5312
This was a two point GOP victory in a swing district that the GOP previously held. The Democrats did have what was thought to be the stronger caandidate and a spending advantage (though not nearly the 3-1 advantage posted earlier n this thread). I did think the Democrats would pick up this seat, so I was wrong on that.

However, you really can't make much of a prediction on November based off a two point special Election in March. There is no way you can draw any real conclusions on a close race in a Special Election. I said the same thing in another post yesterday prior to the results coming out when it looked like Sink will win.
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Old 03-12-2014, 08:48 AM
 
Location: St. Louis
7,444 posts, read 7,033,086 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi View Post
That seat has been Republican for many many many decades, not exactly a surprise.
Democrats obviously thought they had a chance with all the money poured in and they sent in the big dog to campaign.
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Old 03-12-2014, 08:50 AM
 
Location: St. Louis
7,444 posts, read 7,033,086 times
Reputation: 4601
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
This was a two point GOP victory in a swing district that the GOP previously held. The Democrats did have what was thought to be the stronger caandidate and a spending advantage (though not nearly the 3-1 advantage posted earlier n this thread). I did think the Democrats would pick up this seat, so I was wrong on that.

However, you really can't make much of a prediction on November based off a two point special Election in March. There is no way you can draw any real conclusions on a close race in a Special Election. I said the same thing in another post yesterday prior to the results coming out when it looked like Sink will win.
It's interesting though that the libertarian got almost 5%. Not being from that area, I have no idea if he was a real libertarian or a democrat stalking horse, but I have to believe the almost 7 point margin going to the GOP plus the libertarian over the dem in a district that Obama carried twice is troubling for democrats.
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Old 03-12-2014, 09:01 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,214 posts, read 19,507,211 times
Reputation: 5312
Quote:
Originally Posted by MUTGR View Post
It's interesting though that the libertarian got almost 5%. Not being from that area, I have no idea if he was a real libertarian or a democrat stalking horse, but I have to believe the almost 7 point margin going to the GOP plus the libertarian over the dem in a district that Obama carried twice is troubling for democrats.

There is little indication that actual Libertarian candidates pull more from the GOP than the Democrats. Looking at VA for example, in the polls McAuliffe's leads were pretty much identical in the vast majority of the polls with or without the Libertarian candidate in the poll. Exit polls also tend to show something similar, the Libertarian candidate tends to pull from both sides, and often the bulk of their vote tends to come from voters who are unhappy with either side.

Green Party candidates pull heavily from the Dems, Constitutional Party candidates pull heavily from the GOP. Libertarian candidates are similar to Independent candidates in that there really isn't much of a correlation and more of a case by case and race by race basis on who they pull more from.
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Old 03-12-2014, 09:05 AM
 
Location: St. Louis
7,444 posts, read 7,033,086 times
Reputation: 4601
Default Here's a take on it from Florida....

Adam C. Smith: David Jolly's victory spells trouble for Democrats*nationwide | Tampa Bay Times
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Old 03-12-2014, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,771 posts, read 104,909,020 times
Reputation: 49248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rakin View Post
Instead of being on a comedy show, Obama should have been down there campaigning for her and promoting Obamacare.

He should stand behind the issues.
I know why they say he was on the comedy show, but whatever the reason: I think it was a bit unprofessional to say the least. The guy, in my opinion simply lacks class!!!
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Old 03-12-2014, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Orlando
8,276 posts, read 12,874,411 times
Reputation: 4142
So there have been 50 votes to cancel ACA which would NEVER happen anyway, FL has 9 of the idiot R's that voted to shut down the gov and these Tampa fools voted for another one. Guess all the Koch Brothers advertising money paid off, it is a shame it isn't true and the people believe their crap. The good news is this is only for 7 months.

Last edited by AONE; 03-12-2014 at 09:54 AM..
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Old 03-12-2014, 09:46 AM
 
8,061 posts, read 4,895,559 times
Reputation: 2460
Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
You seem to have a reading comprehension problem. I said the left does do PAC money. They just don't do as much of it as the right. The reason being is that the republicans policies tend to offer a greater return on investment for their big donors in the form of tax and regulatory breaks where as liberal donors like Soros, Buffet and Gates, tend to do it for social reasons. The fact is the Republican agenda is very friendly to the wealthy much more so then the democrats thus it makes more investment sense for big donors to back the GOP since they stand a good chance of getting more from the government. Wealthy Liberals on the other hand excluding people like the plaintiff's bar don't get that return on their political money.

You seem to have a axe to grind here. Liberals have big time rich donors and the same polices (tax program ) apply to you rich Liberal guys. You may not like the rich, but they provide the working capital to grow our economy. Some how there is perception that there is 2 sets of laws and tax schedules for Dem and Rep.

Republican Policy? Hmmm that is interesting since the Dem Control the White House and the Senate. Don't let your Donors fool you (Soros, Gates and Buffet) fool you they are in for political and profit out come. No does any thing in the Political area because they think you are a good guy!

Not even Liberals!

The bottom line is the DNC and the Socialist Liberals will at all cost sell a bill of goods that some Republicans are evil just because they have earned their way in this Obama Anti Success Culture.
American is realizing that democratic "Polices are failing." and hope and change was just anther slogan.

Your sarcasm does not become you!
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Old 03-12-2014, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,229 posts, read 17,882,592 times
Reputation: 4585
Quote:
Originally Posted by AONE View Post
So there have been 50 votes to cancel ACA which would NEVER happen anyway, FL has 9 of the idiot R's that voted to shut down the gov and these Tampa fools voted for another one. Guess all the Koch Brothers advertising money paid off, it is a shame it isn't true and the people believe their crap.
I think Sink may well be on the ticket this Nov. Perhaps a few more Dems will come out to vote then.
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