New NC Senate election poll - Thom Thillis (R) leading Kay Hagan (vote, thought)

[afoigrokerkok]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p...ase_NC_213.pdf

This is PPP. She trails her other possible opponents by the same margin or larger margins, with one exception (and is tied with that potential opponent).

Among those polled, the same percentage said they voted for Obama and Romney in 2012 even though Romney won the state by more than 2%.

[Boss]

With the Amount of money spent already by the Koch's and Mr.Pope, this is a tight race. Seems like every other Comm. on TV is from a right wing PAC.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by Boss

With the Amount of money spent already by the Koch's and Mr.Pope, this is a tight race. Seems like every other Comm. on TV is from a right wing PAC.

and the left never does this, is that what you are hinting at or are you simply mentioning how much money is going into the race?

[AeroGuyDC]

Excellent! Hagan was a very weak candidate in 2008 and only won by being on the same ticket as Barack Obama in terms of voter turnout. She would have never beat Dole had it not been for Obama. NC is considered a swing state...but it is very deep red in 90% of the counties. She's hitched to Barack Obama, and North Carolina just doesn't like Barack Obama. Kay Hagan is a one hit wonder.

[Maabus1999]

Originally Posted by nmnita

and the left never does this, is that what you are hinting at or are you simply mentioning how much money is going into the race?

As someone who sees these Ads, it is at least 5 to 1 difference between PACS, with the conservative ones taking a big lead. A new one against Thom Thillis did pop up in the last few weeks, but not sure how effective it will be since I think everyone is sick of the conservative spam that has been on TV for the last 2 months.

Really think people are getting tired of the endless political nonsense on TV. We'll see though.

Little Off Topic, but while Obama is a big negative for Hagen, her biggest boon is the local frustration with the GOP state legislature (it is substantial) that has many local groups organizing to try and throw some of them out.

[Egbert]

Basically, conservative super pacs have poured millions of dollars in and it really hasn't move the numbers a whole lot. What should be troubling for conservatives is how big HKonJ was which suggest that the legislature is going have serious problems next year with publicity.

Another interesting note is that it seems Tillis is having a lot harder time getting traction then people thought he would. He may get into a Tea Party runoff.

[Egbert]

Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC

Excellent! Hagan was a very weak candidate in 2008 and only won by being on the same ticket as Barack Obama in terms of voter turnout. She would have never beat Dole had it not been for Obama. NC is considered a swing state...but it is very deep red in 90% of the counties. She's hitched to Barack Obama, and North Carolina just doesn't like Barack Obama. Kay Hagan is a one hit wonder.

That really isn't true. Dole was a horribly bad senator and she was sunk when she ran the "godless" ad. That far more then anything Obama did is why she lost.

[Maabus1999]

Originally Posted by Egbert

That really isn't true. Dole was a horribly bad senator and she was sunk when she ran the "godless" ad. That far more then anything Obama did is why she lost.

Bingo. Godless ad was one of the biggest political mistakes I've ever seen done. It made me go out of my way to vote against her (and for the record I voted McCain in 2008).

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC

Excellent! Hagan was a very weak candidate in 2008 and only won by being on the same ticket as Barack Obama in terms of voter turnout. She would have never beat Dole had it not been for Obama. NC is considered a swing state...but it is very deep red in 90% of the counties. She's hitched to Barack Obama, and North Carolina just doesn't like Barack Obama. Kay Hagan is a one hit wonder.

Hagan won by 8.5% so to pin it out the larger turnout to Obama is false. Did it help? Yes, but the margin was quite a bit larger than Obama's. Dole was the key reason why she lost and Tillis has plenty of prblems as his own (which will be shown again, especially if the NC legislature tries pushing the same crap it did last year.

[LexusNexus]

We saw what polls meant to Republicans during Romney's run. Not surprising that they're still using them to give the impression that they have a chance, when in reality, they don't.