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Old 09-15-2014, 03:35 AM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,218 posts, read 22,371,062 times
Reputation: 23858

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BentBow View Post
Makes the case to amend the 17th amendment and going back to the original intent of the constitution.

This obviously isn't working. When once elected, they move permanently to DC.


Harry Reid, didn't go back to Nevada during this recession.
Why are you willing to deny anyone the freedom to live and work where he wants?

Not every ex-Congressman stays in D.C. Those who do ended their obligations after they left office.

Freedom is freedom, buddy. Ban them from living and working where they please, and you're next. A big part of liberty is not imposing your beliefs on others.
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Old 09-16-2014, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Type 0.73 Kardashev
11,110 posts, read 9,817,167 times
Reputation: 40166
Quote:
Independent Greg Orman has opened up a lead in his effort to unseat Republican Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, according to a new poll from Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

Orman leads Roberts 41-34, with Democrat Chad Taylor — who announced plans to end his campaign earlier this month — capturing 6 percent of the vote. Libertarian Randall Batson earned 4 percent support in the poll, which was first provided to the Huffington Post. The automated phone and online survey of 1,328 likely voters was taken between Sept. 11 and Sept. 14. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.7 percentage points.
Poll: Greg Orman leads Pat Roberts in Kansas - Kyle Cheney - POLITICO.com

Numerous comments and notes:
*PPP is a Democratic pollster, so one should always take such polls with the usual grain of salt. However, PPP has a decent track-record. In 2012, for example, their polls within the final 21 days of the election were off an average of 2.7% from the final result. Not great, but not terrible. Also, like most pollsters during that election, their polls showed a net Republican bias - the average PPP poll overstated the net Republican result by 1.6%. [all the while, of course, Republicans were furiously 'unskewing' such polls in a hopeless attempt to show that they were favoring Democrats]
*This poll did not 'prime' the respondents by informing them that Taylor, the Democrat, had dropped out of the race. After responding, Taylor supporters were asked if they were aware that he had dropped out of the race; they were, by a 59%-36% margin.
*This is an exceptionally unusual race, with no Democratic candidate actively campaigning and uncertainty as to whether or not the Democratic nominee will actually be on the ballot. Also, this race is essentially new, and there will be a shake-out period before the longer-term picture becomes clear. Do not be surprised by major polling fluctuations if they occur, nor necessarily by a final result that diverges significantly from most polling.
*Orman has said he will caucus with whoever wins the Senate. However, he has not said what he will do if the other races make it 50D, 49R - in that case, whichever side he took would control the Senate. If this happens, Orman likely sides with the Demcrats. First, he is clearly closer ideologically to the Democrats than to the Republicans. Second, he wants to be in the majority as long as possible, and he knows that the Democrats are very likely to hold the Senate after the 2016 elections (the 2016 Senate field is even more favorable to the Democrats than the 2014 Senate field is to the Republicans).
*Taylor will probably not be on the ballot come election day.
Live Blogging #KSSEN Taylor v. Kobach: Analysis | Election Law Blog

On a side note, this poll again shows Brownback losing the governors race. Interestingly, when libertarians are asked to choose between Brownback or Davis, the Democratic nominee, Davis' margin increases.
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Old 09-16-2014, 11:35 AM
 
12,282 posts, read 13,241,939 times
Reputation: 4985
Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike View Post
Why are you willing to deny anyone the freedom to live and work where he wants?

Not every ex-Congressman stays in D.C. Those who do ended their obligations after they left office.

Freedom is freedom, buddy. Ban them from living and working where they please, and you're next. A big part of liberty is not imposing your beliefs on others.



Is it a ban or just one of the election requirements that Roberts has been bending for years and years?
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Old 09-16-2014, 11:42 AM
 
12,282 posts, read 13,241,939 times
Reputation: 4985
I watched part of the Orman/Roberts debate. Orman cut him up pretty good. Orman kept his cool and Roberts got mad and was pointing fingers and stretching the truth quite a bit.
Time will tell.
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Old 09-16-2014, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Old Mother Idaho
29,218 posts, read 22,371,062 times
Reputation: 23858
Quote:
Originally Posted by Versatile View Post
Is it a ban or just one of the election requirements that Roberts has been bending for years and years?
Good point. If you were referring to his not having a home in Kansas, I'll agree with you, as home ownership is a requirement in Kansas. It is here in Idaho, too, and a guy here was bounced for the same reason.

But after a politician is through, I believe that's when the requirement ends. if I mistook the intentions of your earlier post, I apologize.
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Old 09-17-2014, 09:45 AM
 
9,981 posts, read 8,593,450 times
Reputation: 5664
Regardless of whether Taylor is on the ballot or not,
the recent polls reflect only temporary disarray.
In the end, Kansas will re-elect Pat Roberts to the Senate
just like they have in every election since 1997 and
as they did to the House from 1981-1997.
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Old 09-17-2014, 03:59 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley, CA
13,561 posts, read 10,359,245 times
Reputation: 8252
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowball7 View Post
Regardless of whether Taylor is on the ballot or not,
the recent polls reflect only temporary disarray.
In the end, Kansas will re-elect Pat Roberts to the Senate
just like they have in every election since 1997 and

as they did to the House from 1981-1997.
I'm not so sure about that. Roberts is in real big trouble for long term incumbent. He only survived barely a primary challenge from an extremely flawed candidate.

Kobach's blatantly partisan ballot moves are not looking good, either. Even if Kobach's ruling stands, Roberts is still a bit behind.

Coupled with Brownback's extreme unpopularity - in a deep red State no less - and it could be a trifecta.
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Old 09-17-2014, 06:39 PM
 
Location: Home is Where You Park It
23,856 posts, read 13,754,224 times
Reputation: 15482
Analysis from the christian science monitor -

How a Kansas ballot dispute could determine control of the US Senate (+video) - CSMonitor.com

Seems to me though, that the real casualty of this will be Kobach. He has not covered himself in glory here.
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Old 09-18-2014, 08:36 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,956,097 times
Reputation: 7458
Roberts leads by 2 in the most recent poll. I suspect he'll pull it out by more than that. Kansans don't want Harry Reid as Senate majoirty leader. No sane person would.
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Old 09-18-2014, 08:53 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,190 posts, read 19,466,581 times
Reputation: 5305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trace21230 View Post
Roberts leads by 2 in the most recent poll. I suspect he'll pull it out by more than that. Kansans don't want Harry Reid as Senate majoirty leader. No sane person would.

Even if Taylor remains on the ballot, it is unliekly he will get 11%. Even with Taylor on the ballot other polls show Roberts trailing Orman. It remains unclear if Taylor will stay on the ballot, the Supreme Court was beating up on Kobach's lawyer the other day (ruling should come out shortly on this). Without Taylor on the ballot Orman leads in everything including by 6 on the poll you cited.
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