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In the 10 polls taken since the one in the OP was released Tillis has not led. Three of them have been tied, seven Hagan has led. In the 14 polls taken prior to the one in the OP, Tillis led in 0 of them. One poll showed a tie, Hagan was up in the other 13 of them. So now in the last 25 polls on this race, Tillis has led in exactly one poll (the one mentioned in the OP), four polls have shown a tie, and Hagan has led in twenty. It is certainly close, but Hagan has a clear advantage at this point.
Of course I am hoping Tilllis will pull it off, but this is one I do not think will go in the R side. it will be close, but I don't think close counts if you lose.
Hagan will win. Democrats are turning out their vote and the polls have Hagan leading. Any Senate race that has a Democrat close will be a toss up because polls are being conducted with anticipation that Republicans will turn out more than Democrats. If a Democrat is close and their GOTV does a good job of getting their voters to the polls the race will be a nail biter. I still think Republicans will control the Senate, but at most they will have 52 seats. A large Senate Democratic minority and Democratic president will be able to block or minimize the Republican agenda. Essentially, they can run out the clock until their chances improve during the 2016 elections.
Hagan will win. Democrats are turning out their vote and the polls have Hagan leading. Any Senate race that has a Democrat close will be a toss up because polls are being conducted with anticipation that Republicans will turn out more than Democrats. If a Democrat is close and their GOTV does a good job of getting their voters to the polls the race will be a nail biter. I still think Republicans will control the Senate, but at most they will have 52 seats. A large Senate Democratic minority and Democratic president will be able to block or minimize the Republican agenda. Essentially, they can run out the clock until their chances improve during the 2016 elections.
so what you are saying is: regardless of a GOP controlled congress, the Dems are not going to make any attempt to work with them. They will just sit on their behinds, if they even are present and wait til 2016. Didn't you just say on another thread the Rs should work with the President? So you are one that is saying, my way or no way, that is how I read this!!!! I think I am going to go watch some football. I need some relaxation.
so what you are saying is: regardless of a GOP controlled congress, the Dems are not going to make any attempt to work with them. They will just sit on their behinds, if they even are present and wait til 2016. Didn't you just say on another thread the Rs should work with the President? So you are one that is saying, my way or no way, that is how I read this!!!! I think I am going to go watch some football. I need some relaxation.
Yeah, kind of like in 2006 when dems took control at 51 and Republicans refused to work with them and blocked all attempts the dems make to reign in Bush and his wars. Plus lets not forget that it was the Republicans who said that their #1 agenda was to make Obama a one term President.
so what you are saying is: regardless of a GOP controlled congress, the Dems are not going to make any attempt to work with them. They will just sit on their behinds, if they even are present and wait til 2016. Didn't you just say on another thread the Rs should work with the President? So you are one that is saying, my way or no way, that is how I read this!!!! I think I am going to go watch some football. I need some relaxation.
Are Democrats going to help Republicans pass everything the right-wing wants? No. Would democrats work to pass actual bipartisan bills? Probably. If I was a republican worried about 2016, I would go the bipartisan problem solver route. If they want to try to repeal obamacare another 50 times they will not get much done.
On a side note it would be funny to watch Democrats pull every procedural maneuver to slow down or stop Republican legislation just as payback for the crap Republicans have been pulling these past few years.
Of course I am hoping Tilllis will pull it off, but this is one I do not think will go in the R side. it will be close, but I don't think close counts if you lose.
As North Carolianian Ill give my perspective. The race is basically tied and really will rely on the voter turn out. Due to a lot of districts was Gerrymandered alot of this state General Assembly the races are already decided. Around 60% both state house and senate the republicans had no challenger, on Nov 4th they will automatically be reelected.
Since this the case the voters have no drive in those districts to vote except the Tillis-Hagan race.
When I went to early vote and took my mom in her district to vote there was a line but half the size the last time I early voted.
The tv ads are relentless too, it one for Tillis followed by one for Hagan and vice versa. This past week both are doubling the ads during one commercial break.
I work flea markets on weekend and was listening to a guy talking to my next door vendor how he didnt like either one, he was definitely a republican because he also brought up the same sex marriage being legalized except he used the ugly f word that used for a gay man.
I really had to bite my tongue and let him vent mainly I didnt want an ugly vibe or discussion near potential customers or vendors.
He is example that is expressed by many of both parties in this state about not agreeing with his choices as leader of the state house.
Tillis is still fighting on marriage debate in courts even after the ruling as alot of rural NC are not happy with judge ruling and feel violated since they voted for the ban so Tillis hopes this will motivate them at polls
He passed legislation last year to over step democrat Attorney General and hired and out of state attorney.
There is a 3rd party candidate which is one of reasons the polls are tight or Tillis would be in the lead but this past week this candidate has launch youtube ads promoting he for pot legalization in hopes to shave votes from Hagan.
Far as my FB account and few other sites I am seeing a Tillis ad so Im not sure if Hagan is forgetting social media or is targeting different websites.
As North Carolianian Ill give my perspective. The race is basically tied and really will rely on the voter turn out. Due to a lot of districts was Gerrymandered alot of this state General Assembly the races are already decided. Around 60% both state house and senate the republicans had no challenger, on Nov 4th they will automatically be reelected.
Since this the case the voters have no drive in those districts to vote except the Tillis-Hagan race.
When I went to early vote and took my mom in her district to vote there was a line but half the size the last time I early voted.
The tv ads are relentless too, it one for Tillis followed by one for Hagan and vice versa. This past week both are doubling the ads during one commercial break.
I work flea markets on weekend and was listening to a guy talking to my next door vendor how he didnt like either one, he was definitely a republican because he also brought up the same sex marriage being legalized except he used the ugly f word that used for a gay man.
I really had to bite my tongue and let him vent mainly I didnt want an ugly vibe or discussion near potential customers or vendors.
He is example that is expressed by many of both parties in this state about not agreeing with his choices as leader of the state house.
Tillis is still fighting on marriage debate in courts even after the ruling as alot of rural NC are not happy with judge ruling and feel violated since they voted for the ban so Tillis hopes this will motivate them at polls
He passed legislation last year to over step democrat Attorney General and hired and out of state attorney.
There is a 3rd party candidate which is one of reasons the polls are tight or Tillis would be in the lead but this past week this candidate has launch youtube ads promoting he for pot legalization in hopes to shave votes from Hagan.
Far as my FB account and few other sites I am seeing a Tillis ad so Im not sure if Hagan is forgetting social media or is targeting different websites.
You have a better feel for what to expect than those of us not living in or near NC. As for the ads, I think we are all experiencing the same thing and are sick of them. In fact, an article in our paper this morning said, there will be no more Political ads between now and Tues. They are not sure how effective they even are. I don't think anyone has an answer to the negative ads situation or ads period, but I hope between now and 2016 someone will come up with a better way to push candidates. There will always be some negative ads and there are usually some pretty good ads, regardless of which side you are on, but the constant lies and 1/2 truths are turning a lot of us off. I said a few weeks ago, if I couldn't make up my mind between 2 candidates I would choose the one that had the least amount of negative ads blasting his/her opponent.
Early voting in NC ended early yesterday Afternoon
1,155,065 early votes were cast, compared to 957,093 in 2010, an increase of 20.68% compared to 2010
550,126 early votes were cast by registered Democrats (47.63% of the overall early vote). In 2010 443,484 early votes were cast by registered Democrats (46.34% of the early vote). An increase of 24.05% compared to 2010
368,200 of early votes were cast by Registered Republicans (31.88% of the overall early vote) In 2010 349,009 (36.47% of the overall early vote) were cast by registered Republicans, an increase of 5.50% compared to 2010.
236,739 of the early votes were cast by Unaffiliated/ 3rd party(20.50% of the overall early vote) in 2014. It was 164,600(17.20%) in 2010. An increase of 43.83%
Other noteables, blacks were 20.80% of the early vote in 2010, they were 24.99% of the early vote in 2014. Increasing from 199,017 to 288,648. An increase of 45.04%.
Wake County made up the highest % of early votes in 2010 at 8.3%, it made up 8.39% of the early vote this year, but was surpassed by Mecklenberg which had 7.4% of the early vote in 2010, but 8.6% this year.
Early voting in NC ended early yesterday Afternoon
1,155,065 early votes were cast, compared to 957,093 in 2010, an increase of 20.68% compared to 2010
550,126 early votes were cast by registered Democrats (47.63% of the overall early vote). In 2010 443,484 early votes were cast by registered Democrats (46.34% of the early vote). An increase of 24.05% compared to 2010
368,200 of early votes were cast by Registered Republicans (31.88% of the overall early vote) In 2010 349,009 (36.47% of the overall early vote) were cast by registered Republicans, an increase of 5.50% compared to 2010.
236,739 of the early votes were cast by Unaffiliated/ 3rd party(20.50% of the overall early vote) in 2014. It was 164,600(17.20%) in 2010. An increase of 43.83%
Other noteables, blacks were 20.80% of the early vote in 2010, they were 24.99% of the early vote in 2014. Increasing from 199,017 to 288,648. An increase of 45.04%.
Wake County made up the highest % of early votes in 2010 at 8.3%, it made up 8.39% of the early vote this year, but was surpassed by Mecklenberg which had 7.4% of the early vote in 2010, but 8.6% this year.
As North Carolianian Ill give my perspective. The race is basically tied and really will rely on the voter turn out. Due to a lot of districts was Gerrymandered alot of this state General Assembly the races are already decided. Around 60% both state house and senate the republicans had no challenger, on Nov 4th they will automatically be reelected.
Since this the case the voters have no drive in those districts to vote except the Tillis-Hagan race.
When I went to early vote and took my mom in her district to vote there was a line but half the size the last time I early voted.
The tv ads are relentless too, it one for Tillis followed by one for Hagan and vice versa. This past week both are doubling the ads during one commercial break.
I work flea markets on weekend and was listening to a guy talking to my next door vendor how he didnt like either one, he was definitely a republican because he also brought up the same sex marriage being legalized except he used the ugly f word that used for a gay man.
I really had to bite my tongue and let him vent mainly I didnt want an ugly vibe or discussion near potential customers or vendors.
He is example that is expressed by many of both parties in this state about not agreeing with his choices as leader of the state house.
Tillis is still fighting on marriage debate in courts even after the ruling as alot of rural NC are not happy with judge ruling and feel violated since they voted for the ban so Tillis hopes this will motivate them at polls
He passed legislation last year to over step democrat Attorney General and hired and out of state attorney.
There is a 3rd party candidate which is one of reasons the polls are tight or Tillis would be in the lead but this past week this candidate has launch youtube ads promoting he for pot legalization in hopes to shave votes from Hagan.
Far as my FB account and few other sites I am seeing a Tillis ad so Im not sure if Hagan is forgetting social media or is targeting different websites.
while hagen has a lot of faults, she has been a decent supporter of the military , not the greatest, but decent
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