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Latest New Hampshire CNN WMUR Poll Sept 24 2015 - conducted by the University of New
Hampshire Survey Center. Likely Republican Voters
Note: This is not the same polling outfit posted here previously for NH. These people have not polled since July. Public Policy Polling and Monmouth have been polling previously here.
Trump 26%
Fiorina 16%
Rubio 9%
Carson 8%
Kasich 7%
Bush 7%
Christie 5%
Cruz 5%
Paul 3%
Gilmore 1%
Graham 1%
Everyone else less than 1%
PPP polled here last month. Monmouth posted their NH results 10 days ago and showed this. Monmouth polled Likely Republican Voters prior to the debate:
Trump 28% - up 4% from July
Carson 17% - up 12% from July
Kasich 11% - up 4% from July
Cruz 8% - up 5% from July
Fiorina 7% - up 4% from July
Bush 7% - down 5% from July
Paul 4% - down 1% from July
Rubio 4% - down 2% from July
Christie 2% - down 2% from July
Walker 2% - down 5% from July
Latest New Hampshire CNN WMUR Poll Sept 24 2015 - conducted by the University of New
Hampshire Survey Center. Likely Republican Voters
Note: This is not the same polling outfit posted here previously for NH. These people have not polled since July. Public Policy Polling and Monmouth have been polling previously here.
Trump 26%
Fiorina 16%
Rubio 9%
Carson 8%
Kasich 7%
Bush 7%
Christie 5%
Cruz 5%
Paul 3%
Gilmore 1%
Graham 1%
Everyone else less than 1%
PPP polled here last month. Monmouth posted their NH results 10 days ago and showed this. Monmouth polled Likely Republican Voters prior to the debate:
Trump 28% - up 4% from July
Carson 17% - up 12% from July
Kasich 11% - up 4% from July
Cruz 8% - up 5% from July
Fiorina 7% - up 4% from July
Bush 7% - down 5% from July
Paul 4% - down 1% from July
Rubio 4% - down 2% from July
Christie 2% - down 2% from July
Walker 2% - down 5% from July
Just shows how these polls can vary from month to month and even week to week. I love to see them, but do not put a lot of faith in them. All they do is give us bragging rights if our candidate has gained or is on top or give us reason to say: see, your candidate is losing speed even if they have even gone down 1%. i do think it shows a few candidates might want to think about dropping out before they waste any more money.
Just shows how these polls can vary from month to month and even week to week. I love to see them, but do not put a lot of faith in them. All they do is give us bragging rights if our candidate has gained or is on top or give us reason to say: see, your candidate is losing speed even if they have even gone down 1%. i do think it shows a few candidates might want to think about dropping out before they waste any more money.
They are good for trending if you keep following the same polling company because the same methodology will be used from poll to poll. The candidates advisors should look to see if their candidate is trending up or down in the same polling outfit's poll. Their rank, if outside the margin of error, would be more important to me than the actual number. I'd pick which poll I was going to follow based on likely registered voters sampling.
Example:
Smith has 10% this month and Jones has 10% this month in the ABC poll. Jones and Smith are tied for second place and are outside the margin of error.
In the XYZ poll this month Smith has 8%, Jones has 12% and are outside the margin if error.
Last month Smith had 6% in the ABC poll, Jones had 13% and are outside the margin of error.
XYZ didn't poll last month.
I would toss the XYZ poll this month (although Jones desperately wants to brag about his 12%) and look at The ABC poll only because XYZ isn't putting out a monthly poll and I haven't been watching them over the months as events change. Smith improved by 4% and Jones went down 3%. So even though they are tied for second place with 10%, Smith is doing better than Jones right now. I would keep looking at the ABC monthly polls only, to see how my candidate is really doing by trending.
The TV news media rarely talks about trending by the same poller and often cherry pick the poll they want to talk about. Some don't mention margin of error. I don't even want to talk about how FNC decided Kasich would be in the first tier and others within the margin of error would not just to get Kasich on the stage in his home state (where he still is governor) in the top tier and I like him.
The big story no one talked much about until very recently is Jeb Bush. They tried to pretend there was some kind of fake race with Trump but those two were never close together in any poll. The candidates didn't help either by pretending they were neck and neck.
People only say that when their candidates aren't doing well. If anyone was poll watching month to month they would have known Walker was trending in the wrong direction even when he had more than a half percent.
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