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A newly released (5-2) Zogby tracking poll (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1495 - broken link) shows all that talk about Obama's demise may be premature. Note these polls were taken 4-30 & 5-1 After Obama severed his ties with Rev. Wright.
Obama leads by a 50% to 34% margin over Clinton in North Carolina, while the two are tied at 42% support each in Indiana.
In North Carolina, Obama dominates all age groups with one exception those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied.
Democrats NC
Clinton
34%
Obama
50%
Someone else
8%
Undecided
8%
In Indiana, the two Democrats were deadlocked at 42% each, with 16% either favoring someone else or yet undecided.
Hillbilly's ship is sin king fast. I won't declare Obama the winner in both states next Tuesday yet, but this poll hopefully is the start of a trend of polls we'll see up to next Tuesday.
A newly released (5-2) Zogby tracking poll (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1495 - broken link) shows all that talk about Obama's demise may be premature. Note these polls were taken 4-30 & 5-1 After Obama severed his ties with Rev. Wright.
Obama leads by a 50% to 34% margin over Clinton in North Carolina, while the two are tied at 42% support each in Indiana.
In North Carolina, Obama dominates all age groups with one exception those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied.
Democrats NC
Clinton
34%
Obama
50%
Someone else
8%
Undecided
8%
In Indiana, the two Democrats were deadlocked at 42% each, with 16% either favoring someone else or yet undecided.
Democrats - Indiana
Clinton
42%
Obama
42%
Someone else
7%
Undecided
9%
I sense some desperation. . . your posting of poll numbers typically has a much fairer, honest presentation of fact. But I'll step up to provide the balance. Averages from realclear:
IN: Clinton +6
NC: Obama +8.4
National: Obama +1.6
Obama's touted 25% win in NC that was going to seal the deal might be difficult to pull off.
I sense some desperation. . . your posting of poll numbers typically has a much fairer, honest presentation of fact. But I'll step up to provide the balance. Averages from realclear:
IN: Clinton +6
NC: Obama +8.4
National: Obama +1.6
Obama's touted 25% win in NC that was going to seal the deal might be difficult to pull off.
fact: even if Hillary wins NC and IN, she wont catch up in votes, delegates or states EVEN if u add in MI and FL
I sense some desperation. . . your posting of poll numbers typically has a much fairer, honest presentation of fact. But I'll step up to provide the balance. Averages from realclear:
IN: Clinton +6
NC: Obama +8.4
National: Obama +1.6
Obama's touted 25% win in NC that was going to seal the deal might be difficult to pull off.
Those are RCP poll averages you cite, something I rarely post due to the differences in the dates the polls (that make up the averages) are taken. With today's 24 hour news cycle and the quick changes, polls with differences in the dates the respondents are polled have a tendency to give a misleading overall average.
I post individual polls almost entirely. Therefore, I have no idea what you are talking about when you claim, "your posting of poll numbers typically has a much fairer, honest presentation of fact." I didn't make up the Zogby numbers.
Clinton has always polled low. I don't know if a lot of undecided wait until the last minute and vote for her or if people don't accurately report their true preference to the pollsters.
In the end, I look for a disappointing result for Obama in North Carolina (single digit win). This should make the super delegates take notice and break for Hillary.
Those are RCP poll averages you cite, something I rarely post due to the differences in the dates the polls (that make up the averages) are taken. With today's 24 hour news cycle and the quick changes, polls with differences in the dates the respondents are polled have a tendency to give a misleading overall average.
I post individual polls almost entirely. Therefore, I have no idea what you are talking about when you claim, "your posting of poll numbers typically has a much fairer, honest presentation of fact." I didn't make up the Zogby numbers.
I've posted individual poll numbers (favorable to my argument to be sure!) and you're quickly trashed them as being "outliers." If you're now blessing their use and not averages it's:
States
IN: Clinton +10.0 (TeleResearch)
NC: Clinton +2.0 (Insider Advantage)
National
Obama/Clinton: Clinton +4.0 (Gallup)
McCain/Obama: McCain by +6.0 (Rasmussan)
McCain/Clinton: Clinton by +9.0 (AP-Ipsos)
I've posted individual poll numbers (favorable to my argument to be sure!) and you're quickly trashed them as being "outliers." If you're now blessing their use and not averages it's:
States
IN: Clinton +10.0 (TeleResearch)
NC: Clinton +2.0 (Insider Advantage)
National
Obama/Clinton: Clinton +4.0 (Gallup)
McCain/Obama: McCain by +6.0 (Rasmussan)
McCain/Clinton: Clinton by +9.0 (AP-Ipsos)
That was fun!
there was a NYT poll (who endorsed Hillary) that has obama 48-43, when they wre tie last month
Well we know Obama has to win NC but I think if he edged out in Indiana, even by a small margin, we will see a number of superdelegate switching to Obama and it would likely be enough to give him the super delegate lead. He currently leads in pledge delegates and the popular vote so with a super delegate lead, there is NO WAY the nomination will be taken away from Obama. I will say this. In Greensboro, which is North Carolina's third largest city, Obama has received more campaign donations than Hillary has.
Obama should do really well in the NC urban areas and citizens shouldnt have a problem electing a black president. Both Greensboro and Durham currently have black mayors and Charlotte has had a black mayor in the past.
Greensboro, NC population: 245,000 (NC's 3rd largest city)
Here is the race ratio in Greensboro
White 53.6%
Black 37.4%
Hispanic 4.4%
other 6%
main industry:textiles/insurance/manufacturing/distribution
-----------------------------
Obama should do real well in Durham
Durham, NC population 209,000 (NC's 5th largest city)
race ratio in Durham
Black 43%
White 42%
Hispanic 8%
other 5%
main industry: research/technology/tobacco
----------------------- Winston-Salem, NC population: 223,000 (NC's 4th largest city)
race ratio
White 52%
Black 37%
Hispanic 8%
other 6%
main industry: tobacco,manufacturing,research
----------------------- Raleigh, NC population: 356,000 (NC's 2nd largest city)
race ratio
White 60%
Black 27%
Hispanic 7%
other 9%
main industry: research/technology/governement
----------------------- Charlotte, NC population: 640,000 (NC's largest city)
race ratio
White 55%
Black 32%
Hispanic 7%
other 8%
main industry: banking & finance
Last edited by gsoboi; 05-02-2008 at 09:16 AM..
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Not so Fast
