Modern History Shows that White House Will Be Taken By GOP in 2016

[MTQ3000]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

His disapproval rating is in the mid to high 50s. His approval rating on the economy has been in the low 20s. By any measure, most Americans think he is doing a terrible job. On the other hand I support your right to believe anything you like about Obama.
.

Obama's current approval rating is about 49%, so I don't think it is mathematically possible that "most Americans think he is doing a terrible job". You should see GWB's approval rating before the end of his term . . . in the mid-30's.

Mick

[drishmael]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

"So in line with those who claim past elections predict future elections we have this.

After the amendment went into effect in 1945 that prevents a President from holding two terms, there has only been one case where a political party held the White House for more than 2 terms. This would be Reagan/Bush in 1988.

• 1946 - DEM
• 1952 - GOP
• 1956 - GOP
• 1960 - DEM
• 1964 - DEM
• 1968 - GOP
• 1972 - GOP
• 1976 - DEM
• 1980 - GOP
• 1984 - GOP
• 1988 - GOP <----- 3 terms
• 1992 - DEM
• 1996 - DEM
• 2000 - GOP
• 2004 - GOP
• 2008 - DEM
• 2012 - DEM
• 2016 - ? <------ GOP due to history.

"

And now for the rest of the story ...

1789 – ............ 1860 – REP ...... 1932 – DEM
1792 – ............ 1864 – REP ...... 1936 – DEM
1796 – FED ...... 1868 – REP ...... 1940 – DEM
1800 – D–R ...... 1872 – REP ...... 1944 – DEM
1804 – D–R ...... 1876 – REP ...... 1948 – DEM
1808 – D–R ...... 1880 – REP
1812 – D–R ...... 1884 – DEM
1816 – D–R ...... 1888 – REP
1820 – D–R ...... 1892 – DEM
1824 – D–R ...... 1896 – REP
1828 – DEM ...... 1900 – REP
1832 – DEM ...... 1904 – REP
1836 – DEM ...... 1908 – REP
1840 – WHIG .... 1912 – DEM
1844 – DEM ...... 1916 – DEM
1848 – WHIG .... 1920 – REP
1852 – DEM ...... 1924 – REP
1856 – DEM ...... 1928 – REP


And note: no president prior to FDR served more than two terms, but the Republican Party still managed to win six consecutive presidential elections between 1860 and 1880, largely due to partisanship trumping candidates/campaigns. Sound familiar?

[drishmael]

Originally Posted by MTQ3000

"Obama's current approval rating is about 49%, so I don't think it is mathematically possible that "most Americans think he is doing a terrible job". You should see GWB's approval rating before the end of his term . . . in the mid-30's.

Mick"

You're being too kind. W.'s average approval for the month of November, 2008, was 26%, and he left office with a 29% average in January '09.

[kat in aiken]

Originally Posted by WaldoKitty

If you read the OP again, you will find that WAS the point.

Did you think I really think this?

Huh? Your post was all about proving that the republicans will win in 2016. Now you seem to be saying that you are trying to prove that basing the outcome on the historical record is actually a moot point. Or you are saying something different than that. Yes, I really think you think what you wrote in your post.

[WaldoKitty]

Originally Posted by kat in aiken

Huh? Your post was all about proving that the republicans will win in 2016.

Haha. Try This.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/42728603-post4.html