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If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, which seems likely, I don't see how the Republicans end up with anyone other than him as the nominee.
He is under the 50% mark to avoid a potential brokered Convention, but if he takes both of those which is Winner Take All he would jump over the 50% mark. Obviously he would still need to win others, but the math becomes easier, and even if he falls short he would likely be close enough to the 50% mark and have such a delegate lead that him not getting the nomination would turn to utter chaos. On the other hand if he only takes one or takes neither a brokered Convention becomes very likely.
If Trump wins Ohio and Florida, which seems likely, I don't see how the Republicans end up with anyone other than him as the nominee.
Even if he doesn't win both, I don't see how Cruz can be nominated. So far, he's only proved that he is a regional candidate. With the exception of Maine he has no wins on the East Coast. In fact he has only won 2 states east of the Mississippi river. And as Michigan proved last night, he is very challenged in high population, highly industrialized states.
He is under the 50% mark to avoid a potential brokered Convention, but if he takes both of those which is Winner Take All he would jump over the 50% mark. Obviously he would still need to win others, but the math becomes easier, and even if he falls short he would likely be close enough to the 50% mark and have such a delegate lead that him not getting the nomination would turn to utter chaos. On the other hand if he only takes one or takes neither a brokered Convention becomes very likely.
I guess my point is that if you look at the places where Trump has already won, why wouldn't he win the rest of the states if he wins Ohio and Florida, which have Kasich and Rubio in them.
I mean, he's going to win the remaining northeast states like NY, PA, CT, NJ, RI. He'll probably win Maryland too. Most of the South is done, so I just don't see where Cruz is going to beat Trump even if Rubio and Kasich aren't in the picture.
I guess my point is that if you look at the places where Trump has already won, why wouldn't he win the rest of the states if he wins Ohio and Florida, which have Kasich and Rubio in them.
I mean, he's going to win the remaining northeast states like NY, PA, CT, NJ, RI. He'll probably win Maryland too. Most of the South is done, so I just don't see where Cruz is going to beat Trump even if Rubio and Kasich aren't in the picture.
I generally agree with you on this. However, we don't know what Rubio or Kasich will do if they do not win their own states, or how their supporters will break if they drop out. Not to mention this has been a strange election season to say the least.
With that being said it is becoming more and more likely that Trump will go to the Convention with the most delegates. Cruz gained a bit of momentum over the weekend, but Trump basically stalled that momentum last night. We are basically at the same point we were a week ago except the only real difference is Rubio is in even worse shape. I think really the only question is will Trump be able to crack the 50% mark.
I generally agree with you on this. However, we don't know what Rubio or Kasich will do if they do not win their own states, or how their supporters will break if they drop out. Not to mention this has been a strange election season to say the least.
With that being said it is becoming more and more likely that Trump will go to the Convention with the most delegates. Cruz gained a bit of momentum over the weekend, but Trump basically stalled that momentum last night. We are basically at the same point we were a week ago except the only real difference is Rubio is in even worse shape. I think really the only question is will Trump be able to crack the 50% mark.
Agreed, and then the follow up question of whether the Republicans are prepared to deny him the nomination if he has the most votes but not over 50%. Even if he didn't go 3rd party at that point, I think some of his supporters might vote Democratic in protest (for Bernie, yes, but even some for Hillary just because they would want to stick it to the Republicans and it seems like at least some of his supporters are more driven by emotion than policy) or they will just stay home.
Agreed, and then the follow up question of whether the Republicans are prepared to deny him the nomination if he has the most votes but not over 50%. Even if he didn't go 3rd party at that point, I think some of his supporters might vote Democratic in protest (for Bernie, yes, but even some for Hillary just because they would want to stick it to the Republicans and it seems like at least some of his supporters are more driven by emotion than policy) or they will just stay home.
I think there are a few possibilities on this. If Trump winds up being very close to the 50% mark and well ahead of anyone else I think it will be very unlikely they will block Trump from getting the nomination because it would turn it into utter chaos. However, if he isn't that close to the 50% mark, he isn't that far ahead of his next competitor (which will likely be Cruz) or if Rubio drops out and endorses Cruz it is possible that he could be blocked. Of course the other interesting tidbit is Cruz is almost as disliked among those in charge as Trump is.
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