Will the GOP Lose Control of the House? (Harry Reid, house seat, Representatives)
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I personally believe that it is a near certainty that the GOP will lose control of the Senate (along with losing the presidential race, regardless of who is its nominee). I now fear that the GOP will lose control of the House as well.
Currently, there are 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats, and 1 vacancy in the House. Given all the chaos, I do now believe that there is about a 40% chance that the GOP will lose enough seats to lose the majority.
The only good news is that the GOP will probably recoup their House losses in the 2018 elections. I also think that the GOP will regain the Senate in 2018 as well.
I have previously stated that I expect the GOP to win the presidency in 2020. While I still believe the GOP will win in 2020, I do fear that the divisions are now so deep that the party will still be fractured four years from now. If the GOP fails to win the presidency in 2020, I think the party may then cease to function as a major political party.
I am pretty certain the Senate will flip, mostly because of the 24-10 seat disparity in 2016. 9 out of 10 seats most likely to flip are all Republican . . . and the 10th is retiring Harry Reid's seat in Nevada, which could go either way. Trump or not, it doesn't matter.
I am highly doubtful, however, that the House would flip to the Democrats, in light of the huge differential now. I haven't done a district-by-district analysis, but I just don't think so.
Trump wins. The Senate flips and the House stays (R). That is my prediction. Subject to change depending on whether or not either party trys to pull something.
I personally believe that it is a near certainty that the GOP will lose control of the Senate (along with losing the presidential race, regardless of who is its nominee). I now fear that the GOP will lose control of the House as well.
Well, if all these 'angry' republican voters also take out their anger on their representatives, at the very least, there should be some turnover in congress. Whether they vote in a new republican, or the seat turns over to a democrat, who knows? I think the democrats are far less likely to want to replace their persons than are republicans.
As an example, in Florida, where Rubio can't run for re-election in the Senate, there are currently 3 Rs and 2 Ds who are running for 2016. Florida's 'other' senator is a D, so it is possible that the state elects another one.
I wanted to add that--as of right now--I would guess that the GOP will lose about 20-25 House seats (which would not be enough to cause them to lose control of the House, although it would severely diminish its majority). But, as I said earlier, I do believe that the GOP will recoup most of its losses in 2018.
I am highly doubtful, however, that the House would flip to the Democrats, in light of the huge differential now. I haven't done a district-by-district analysis, but I just don't think so.
Mick
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockside
Senate maybe...not the House.
I can't speak for other states but gerrymandered districts in TX would absolutely prevent House seats from going blue.
US Senate seats are of course statewide so can theoretically can flip anytime a term expires.
I don't think the GOP will lose as many House seats as many might think, so I believe they'll be safe. It's too safe as it is to change over. They might just barely hang on to the Senate, as I predict a net loss when they really needed more seats going into this, especially with the new 60-vote rule. Establishment Republicans blew every chance they got at impeaching President Obama and they didn't do it. The only thing that could keep either branch from flipping is if enough people voted for a true conservative where they live.
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