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Dr. Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University has developed a statistical formula that he claims has picked the winner of the presidential popular vote going back 100 years, except for the JFK-Nixon matchup in 1960.
He predicts that Donald Trump has an 87-percent probability of winning the election in November.
From Dr. Jarod Benowitz, Mathematical Biophysicist
Department of Molecular Physiology and Biophysics at the University of Iowa:
I would equate the accuracy of Helmut Norpoth's 'model' to flipping a slightly biased coin for every election and getting heads every time. If I had $10 million to wager against his prediction, I would do so confidently.
The 'statistical model' is political pixie dust, lacking any and all flavors of rigor.
There is a fundamental problem in building predictive models from historical events. The further you go into the past, correlations exponentially decouple with respect to the present. This exponential decoupling is proportional to the exponential growth of technology.
The political landscape has fundamentally changed in the post-internet era, any model not accounting for this change almost surely will fail.
Yeah, well in 2008, he also predicted Hillary Clinton would narrowly defeat John McCain.
And then once he had to backtrack that (since his basic model consists solely of who wins in NH when there is not an incumbent) and calculate with the actual Democratic nominee, he predicted a statistical tie between Obama and McCain of 50.1 to 49.9, in an election that Obama won by 7 points in the popular vote and more than 2/3 of the electoral college.
I believe the election is "rigged' with the CORPORATE HO Clinton as the winner, or Mohammed Obama suspending the elections with Marshal Law, but we will see.
Location: Foothills of Maryland Blue Ridge mountains
993 posts, read 766,974 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell
Has Dr Norpoth made a follow up to that criticism?
Not that I could find and I searched for it.
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