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Old 08-15-2016, 12:40 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,575 posts, read 17,293,027 times
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In the latest NBC poll, the numbers look like this:

Clinton/Trump...51/41
Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein....44/38/10/4. So Johnson takes more from Hillary than Trump.

It was a nationwide poll taken from registered voters, Aug 1 - 7. A more accurate poll would be taken from likely voters.
NBC Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 10 Points, Gains Ground With Men
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Old 08-16-2016, 04:03 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,903,106 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
In the latest NBC poll, the numbers look like this:

Clinton/Trump...51/41
Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein....44/38/10/4. So Johnson takes more from Hillary than Trump.

It was a nationwide poll taken from registered voters, Aug 1 - 7. A more accurate poll would be taken from likely voters.
NBC Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 10 Points, Gains Ground With Men
Not quite
51+41=92%, 8% at large
44+38=82%. add Johnson, that is 92% but then we add in Stein as well and get 96% with 4% at large. So basically Stein and Johnson take 1/2 of the 8% at large in this first poll. For argument sake let's say it is 2% for Johnson, 2% for Stein. 2% from Hillary goes to Stein, dropping her to 49%. Johnson gets 3% from Trump but would still need to take 5% off of Hillary. I'm scratching my head why leaning Democrat voters are willing to vote Libertarian, especially on policy issues. Maybe it's the #NeverHillary disenfranchised Sanders supporters.
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Old 08-16-2016, 04:11 PM
 
4,668 posts, read 3,900,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
Not quite
51+41=92%, 8% at large
44+38=82%. add Johnson, that is 92% but then we add in Stein as well and get 96% with 4% at large. So basically Stein and Johnson take 1/2 of the 8% at large in this first poll. For argument sake let's say it is 2% for Johnson, 2% for Stein. 2% from Hillary goes to Stein, dropping her to 49%. Johnson gets 3% from Trump but would still need to take 5% off of Hillary. I'm scratching my head why leaning Democrat voters are willing to vote Libertarian, especially on policy issues. Maybe it's the #NeverHillary disenfranchised Sanders supporters.
It could be disenfranchised Sanders supporters, but if one goes into the details of the polls, Johnson is performing best with millennials and independents, also groups Sanders did well with. I think Johnson is picking up independents who may lean slightly Democrat, or are voting for Hillary over Trump, but probably not really liking Hillary either.
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Old 08-16-2016, 05:01 PM
 
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You forgetting Ross Perot. He had a chance then he blew it by dropping out for some crazy reason and then he jumped backed in just to lose.
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Old 08-16-2016, 05:14 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,903,106 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattks View Post
It could be disenfranchised Sanders supporters, but if one goes into the details of the polls, Johnson is performing best with millennials and independents, also groups Sanders did well with. I think Johnson is picking up independents who may lean slightly Democrat, or are voting for Hillary over Trump, but probably not really liking Hillary either.
Yeah. I would be one but I don't like the Fair Tax being on the table with Johnson. IMHO Weld is much more level headed but he isn't up for president, Johnson is.
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Old 08-16-2016, 08:45 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,575 posts, read 17,293,027 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
Not quite
51+41=92%, 8% at large
44+38=82%. add Johnson, that is 92% but then we add in Stein as well and get 96% with 4% at large. So basically Stein and Johnson take 1/2 of the 8% at large in this first poll. For argument sake let's say it is 2% for Johnson, 2% for Stein. 2% from Hillary goes to Stein, dropping her to 49%. Johnson gets 3% from Trump but would still need to take 5% off of Hillary. I'm scratching my head why leaning Democrat voters are willing to vote Libertarian, especially on policy issues. Maybe it's the #NeverHillary disenfranchised Sanders supporters.
The poll has now been replaced by this one.

The latest NBC News national poll (8/8 to 8/14):

Clinton/Trump..... 50/41 (91%)
Clinton/Trump/Johnson.....43/37/11 (91%)

These polls may reflect the fact that 9% of the people have no idea what is going on, anyway.
(Actually, kinda sad)
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Old 08-16-2016, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,903,106 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
The poll has now been replaced by this one.

The latest NBC News national poll (8/8 to 8/14):

Clinton/Trump..... 50/41 (91%)
Clinton/Trump/Johnson.....43/37/11 (91%)

These polls may reflect the fact that 9% of the people have no idea what is going on, anyway.
(Actually, kinda sad)
I figure that perhaps some of the 11% for Johnson just wants a third party and the 9% of the undecided don't know Johnson. If given a third option, some with this incredible apathy to either candidate (if not both) may just say "I'd vote for a third option" without realizing their stances. I'm sorry, that's as bad if not worse than the vote for two evils or either side of the same coin you hear from third party supporters. I'm all about equity, it's fair for one, it's fair for both.

At least the percent is consistant to close loopholes of the math. I did only one scenario with the previous data. What if 3% of the four were libertarians? That means 3% of Hillary's votes were now going Stein based on her being an option while 3% of Johnson's total 10% are Trump supporters in a two party option. That leaves 4% for Johnson and 3% for Stein from Hillary's loss of 7% total. I see some Sanders supporters voting Libertarian, some voting Stein but I think the sample is a bit on the small size to be that accurate. That's not even with the end of the summer push that gives independent parties a boost that die off by the time of the debates.
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Old 08-18-2016, 09:24 AM
 
Location: LEAVING CD
22,974 posts, read 27,016,029 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkpunk View Post
Yeah. I would be one but I don't like the Fair Tax being on the table with Johnson. IMHO Weld is much more level headed but he isn't up for president, Johnson is.
Why? What's wrong with the Fair Tax plan?
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Old 08-18-2016, 09:38 AM
 
4,668 posts, read 3,900,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimj View Post
Why? What's wrong with the Fair Tax plan?
In the fairtax that was introduced as a bill, it includes rent in the sales tax. Johnson supported that fairtax, but has put language on his website that implies that he would not tax rent.

That's what he replied before was his main problem with the fairtax.

But I think Johnson uses the words consumption tax for a reason, I don't think he would like to tax rent, but he has never said so directly.
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Old 08-18-2016, 09:47 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,575 posts, read 17,293,027 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattks View Post
In the fairtax that was introduced as a bill, it includes rent in the sales tax. Johnson supported that fairtax, but has put language on his website that implies that he would not tax rent.

That's what he replied before was his main problem with the fairtax.

But I think Johnson uses the words consumption tax for a reason, I don't think he would like to tax rent, but he has never said so directly.
Taxing rent seems to be beyond The Pale to me. Although it is consistent with all the other provisions in the Fair Tax plan, it puts the onus on us landlords to collect and forward the tax money. Same thing with the kid you pay to mow your yard.

But it could all be worked out. My guess is that they would leave that provision in the original bill so that they have something to offer Democrats when the Republicans ask for support across the aisle.
Hopefully a major bill will not be shoved through with only one party's support, the way Obamacare was.
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