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Asa I recall, he was down 8 only a week before the election. He just came from nowhere, like Secretariat on a motorcycle or something. So yeah, it surely has happened before.
Trouble is, Trump ain't no Reagan. And the numbers are trending away form him, not toward him. Don't see it happening this season.
The polls historically have been fairly close, but I don't believe that is the case in this election. And that is due to three known factors.
1. It's been shown that many people who plan to vote for Trump don't want to admit it, even to a pollster on the phone. That's due to the media stigma associated with being labeled a racist, etc.
2. About 99.9% of people who say they will vote for Trump are going to vote. They are excited about Trump.
3. Hillary does not have excited voters and many just don't want Trump. But when it comes to voting day, many will not bother. NOBODY likes this woman.
You combine all these factors and these "polls" are likely 5-7 points off in favor of Trump.
3. Hillary does not have excited voters and many just don't want Trump. But when it comes to voting day, many will not bother. NOBODY likes this woman.
OH Trust me, some of us ARE VERY EXCITED About this election too. WE CAN HARDLY WAIT TO VOTE AGAINST TRUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NEVER TRUMP!!!!
NEVER TRUMP!!!
NEVER TRUMP!!!!
The polls historically have been fairly close, but I don't believe that is the case in this election. And that is due to three known factors.
1. It's been shown that many people who plan to vote for Trump don't want to admit it, even to a pollster on the phone. That's due to the media stigma associated with being labeled a racist, etc.
2. About 99.9% of people who say they will vote for Trump are going to vote. They are excited about Trump.
3. Hillary does not have excited voters and many just don't want Trump. But when it comes to voting day, many will not bother. NOBODY likes this woman.
You combine all these factors and these "polls" are likely 5-7 points off in favor of Trump.
1. False. Trump consistently underperformed his polling numbers during the primary.
2. False. The enthusiasm gap, based on polling, is on Hillary's side. These numbers come from people who say they are voting.
3. The numbers aren't far off for either candidate, based on who they are voting for/against.
Trump is likely down as much as the polls siggest, maybe a bit more because of Hillary's superior ground game.
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Wanna make a friendly wager?
