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Die-hard Trump supporters aren't going to like this, but looking at the electoral data from last November gives credence to the theory that a more generic Republican (e.g. Marco Rubio) likely would have been a stronger general election candidate. Look at the data for the following ten states (the nine states that I mentioned in my initial post, along with the key state of Ohio); the Republican Senate candidate bested Trump's performance in seven of these states and only did worse in two states. (In Nevada, the GOP Senate essentially equaled Trump's performance.)
ARIZONA
*DJT wins by 3.54%
*John McCain wins by 13.0%
FLORIDA
*DJT wins by 1.20%
*Marco Rubio wins 7.7%
INDIANA
*DJT wins by 18.91%
*Todd Young wins by 9.70%
MISSOURI:
*DJT wins by 18.63%
*Roy Blunt wins by 2.79%
NEVADA:
*DJT loses by 2.42%
*Joe Heck loses by 2.4%
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
*DJT loses by 0.37%
*Kelly Ayotte loses by 0.10%
NORTH CAROLINA:
*DJT wins 3.66%
*Richard Burr wins by 5.7%
OHIO:
*DJT wins by 8.13%
*Rob Portman wins by 20.9%
PENNSYLVANIA:
*DJT wins by 0.72%
*Pat Toomey wins by 1.43%
WISCONSIN:
*DJT wins by 0.77%
*Ron Johnson wins by 3.4%
By the way, none of this is to take away from the fact that Trump pulled of the biggest upset in American political history. But it does show that while Trump wasn't a drag on the down-ballot GOP candidates, he generally didn't have any coattails, either. (An obvious exception was in the state in Missouri, where Trump helped pull a very weak GOP Senate candidate over the finish line. And although Trump outperformed Todd Young in Indiana, Young's margin of victory was large enough to be attributable to factors other than Trump's coattails.)
I am not getting this thread or your post...forgive me for being dumb on this
what make you think that any of these that you have mentioned ''rode the coattrails of trump""
for example freshman senator Todd Yung...an Annapolis grad Marine, with a TS security clearance, and trained in anti terrorism, who was elected 3 times to the house of reps
now a freshman senator he doesn't need to worry about re-election until 2022.
IF I am understanding the point of this thread... shouldn't you be talking about the senators who are up for re-election next year in 2018...or even the ones for 2020
but your arrow seem to be look at people up in 2022....what am I missing about this thread
I voted for Rubio, then voted against Clinton. Unlike you, I have nothing to be ashamed about.
Regardless of what you might believe, I did not vote for Trump and instead cast a protest vote. I absolutely despise the Clintons, but--at this point--I truly wish that she did win. Four years of her would have been awful and empowered the most extreme elements of the Democratic Party (which is why I chose not to vote for her). But I can't imagine it being as bad as witnessing how Trump's victory has empowered the white supremacists and the other low lives of society. And the corruption that is coming from this White House is like Clintonian corruption on steroids.
I'm a bit surprised that you voted for a "RINO" like Rubio, to be honest. Many on the far-right went absolutely apes*it when he proposed his immigration reform package a few years back.
I am not getting this thread or your post...forgive me for being dumb on this
what make you think that any of these that you have mentioned ''rode the coattrails of trump""
for example freshman senator Todd Yung...an Annapolis grad Marine, with a TS security clearance, and trained in anti terrorism, who was elected 3 times to the house of reps
now a freshman senator he doesn't need to worry about re-election until 2022.
IF I am understanding the point of this thread... shouldn't you be talking about the senators who are up for re-election next year in 2018...or even the ones for 2020
but your arrow seem to be look at people up in 2022....what am I missing about this thread
Sorry for the confusion. The main point I was trying to make with that particular post was that Trump likely underperformed relative to how a generic GOP presidential nominee would have done, as evidenced by the data I shared (which showed Trump doing worse than most of the GOP candidates in the high-profile Senate races of 2016).
Regardless of what you might believe, I did not vote for Trump and instead cast a protest vote. I absolutely despise the Clintons, but--at this point--I truly wish that she did win. Four years of her would have been awful and empowered the most extreme elements of the Democratic Party (which is why I chose not to vote for her). But I can't imagine it being as bad as witnessing how Trump's victory has empowered the white supremacists and the other low lives of society. And the corruption that is coming from this White House is like Clintonian corruption on steroids.
I'm a bit surprised that you voted for a "RINO" like Rubio, to be honest. Many on the far-right went absolutely apes*it when he proposed his immigration reform package a few years back.
I understand the damage the Democrats have done to the country. You obviously do not.
I understand the damage the Democrats have done to the country. You obviously do not.
If somebody voted for Trump in order to stop the far-left Democrats from attaining power, I can understand. (What I can't understand are those on the far-right who idolize Trump in much the same way those on the far-left idolized Obama.)
My rationale for refusing to vote for Trump--even when taking a few SCOTUS seats into account--was primarily twofold:
1. I worry that Trump will be embroiled in a scandal that will lead to a generational destruction of the GOP. If the GOP is decimated for a generation, the damage done to the country will be far worse than even four years of a hard-left agenda under HRC. Even a few SCOTUS seats aren't worth long-term damage to the conservative movement.
2. This may sound a bit rude, but I am somebody who strongly believes in integrity. I was appalled at how corrupt the Clintons were in the 1990s and how the Democrats always excused their behavior. So I would feel like a complete hypocrite if I turned around and voted for somebody as unethical as Trump.
Regarding reason #1, I sure hope I am wrong about my fear of Trump destroying the GOP for an entire generation, particularly in light of the fact that many of the Democrats who are running in 2020 are to the left of even Obama. (Obviously, I couldn't have been more wrong about my 2016 election predictions, so I'm no longer trying to forecast the future; rather, I'm merely stating what I fear might happen.)
When it comes to reason #2, I am surprised (to say the least) that most Republicans--including most GOP "leaders"--don't seem to care much about ethics in government. (It's a big reason why I have left the Republican Party.) It appears that crass political gain was the only reason why the GOP attacked the Clintons for their corruption.
I understand the damage the Democrats have done to the country. You obviously do not.
Right now I think there is a great chance that PA will end up with two Republican Senators that both oppose illegal immigration after 2018. The Democrats are showing a muscle spasms before the rigor mortis sets in. What are they going to run on beside: I hate Trump or I love ANTIFA!
Seeing the Trump cult members "bump" up every single pre-election thread (that incorrectly predicted a HRC victory) is getting really old. It might have been "cute" the first dozen or so times these threads were bumped, but it currently serves no purpose other than to prove that the Trump zealots are every bit as vindictive as their Dear Leader himself.
I've already admitted that I royally screwed up in my pre-election predictions. Honestly, I didn't think that 46% of Americans would vote for a racist, corrupt, p---y grabber. I have never been more wrong.
And the fact that 90% of Republicans voted for Trump is deeply disturbing, as is the fact that 80% or so of Republicans still approve of his job performance (despite the fact that Trump's overall job approval numbers are in the gutter). It's long past time for anti-Trump conservatives to leave the GOP and form a political party of their own, one which values integrity and rejects white supremacy.
.
Welcome back, Dole. Haven't seen your posts in awhile. You realize of course, that to the cultists on C-D you have just committed the unpardonable sin; mentioning the white racism inherent in Trump's base.
I don't know if you're familiar with Chris Ladd. He's the Texas born and raised lawyer who served as a precinct officer for years in one of the collar counties of Chicago. He resigned his position and became an independent when Trump was nominated, because he felt that merely nominating Trump, the party was forever tainted and would never be the same.
Prior to leaving the party, his blog was entitled GOPLifer.
When you talk of Trump potentially ruining the GOP for generations, I fully agree. If you look at Trump's coalition, it's comprised of those groups of voters that are losing voting share with the passage of each POTUS election. Trump cashed in by exploiting the fear and anger of those who feel that their America is fading away. For every move Trump takes to please that base, the more he alienates the groups that are growing. That's the long term danger to the GOP. Each living American generation is less non-Hispanic white than the one that preceded it. Currently, those Americans over the age of 65 is 85% n/h white. For those under the age of 19, it drops to 58% and for those under 10, it drops to 50%, and for infants, it's less than half. That's the future whether we like it or not. We're going to become a minority-majority nation in the not too distant future. That has already been determined and no policy change at this point will change it. But many posters on this site are angered and infuriated by these facts. I can have plenty of respect for conservatives, but not for closet, or not so closeted white racial resentment voters. That's one reason that I frequently post data driven posts about demographic change. It's statistically true and it drives the racists utterly insane.
Unfortunately, you might be in the minority of your party currently, at least according to this recent OP by David Brooks...
Quote:
Third, white identity politics as it plays out in the political arena is completely noxious. Donald Trump is the maestro here. He established his political identity through birtherism, he won the Republican nomination on the Muslim ban, he campaigned on the Mexican wall, he governed by being neutral on Charlottesville and pardoning the racialist Joe Arpaio.
Each individual Republican is now compelled to embrace this garbage or not. The choice is unavoidable, and white resentment is bound to define Republicanism more and more in the months ahead. It’s what Trump cares about. The identity warriors on the left will deface statues or whatever and set up mutually beneficial confrontations with the identity warriors on the right. Things will get uglier.
...and this Ronald Brownstein article quoting Republican pollster Kristin Soltis Anderson, that touches on the same point.
Quote:
Anderson’s fear is that in a rapidly diversifying America, Trump is stamping the GOP as a party of white racial backlash—and that too much of the party’s base is comfortable with that. Trump’s morally stunted response to the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia, this month unsettled her. But she was even more unnerved by polls showing that most Republican voters defended his remarks.
“What has really shaken me in recent weeks is the consistency in polling where I see Republican voters excusing really bad things because their leader has excused them,” she told me. “[Massachusetts Governor] Charlie Baker, [UN Ambassador] Nikki Haley, [Illinois Representative] Adam Kinzinger—I want to be in the party with them. But in the last few weeks it has become increasingly clear to me that most Republican voters are not in that camp. They are in the Trump camp.”
The portion of the party coalition willing to tolerate, if not actively embrace, white nationalism “is larger than most mainstream Republicans have ever been willing to grapple with,” she added.
Right now I think there is a great chance that PA will end up with two Republican Senators that both oppose illegal immigration after 2018. The Democrats are showing a muscle spasms before the rigor mortis sets in. What are they going to run on beside: I hate Trump or I love ANTIFA!
Winning Pa in '16 was far harder than GOP winning in '18, as casual voters depart.
Looking forward to 2018,just as I eagerly awaited 2016..
Winning Pa in '16 was far harder than GOP winning in '18, as casual voters depart.
Looking forward to 2018,just as I eagerly awaited 2016..
Some of Trump's 2016 support came from casual voters, but maybe such folks are going to be regular voters from now on ... we'll see. If Rep. Barletta (who has taken a pretty vocal stance on immigration issues) or another Republican does defeat Senator Casey, that would certainly overturn standard assumptions about midterms, the Rust Belt, and how the president is perceived. Conventional wisdom would not suggest such an outcome is likely but it's up to the voters over a year from now.
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