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There's absolutely no guarantee that any given state will continue to trend Democratic just because Clinton performed better than Obama did back in 2012. Thus, the premise of this thread is somewhat flawed. But if one wants to compare the states in which Clinton improved over Obama to the states in which Trump improved over Romney, such a comparison does not bode well for the Democrats. Specifically, Clinton improved over Obama's 2012 performance in the following states, which total 195 Electoral Votes:
Arizona (11 EVs)
California (55 EVs)
District of Columbia (3 EVs)
Georgia (16 EVs)
Idaho (4 EVs)
Illinois (20 EVs)
Kansas (6 EVs)
Massachusetts (11 EVs)
Texas (38 EVs)
Utah (6 EVs)
Virginia (13 EVs)
Washington (12 EVs)
In all other states--possessing a total of 343 Electoral Votes--Trump performed better than Romney did.
Nah. It was a one off based on bad turnout by dems for a candidate that did not move them. They will maybe need to come up with more charismatic, flashy type like Obama but the fundamentals are still solid. Anyone but Clinton probably wins all those states and don't forget the diff was only about 100K votes. Iowa is probably going to turn. AZ might by 2020. There will be a couple million more young people voting (well eligible). A lot depends on how the Dems structure their message and whether Trump can reshape the GOP into a more progressive party than the Ryans want it to be. It is better to be out of power in a lot of ways. The GOP showed you can say and promise just about anything if you have no ability or responsibility to deliver. Now the Pubs have it all and have no excuses for the coming recession/wars/cultural regression/race problems.
Agreed and; it's ON the Repubs like you said cause a LOT of us WILL vote for a GOOD Dem IF things go bad in the next 2 to 4 years.
Democrats have been asleep since Reagan -- with the possible exception of Bill Clinton's win over GH Bush. Obama had perfect timing and GW Bush ran so far off the rails that McCain/Palin was an unbelievable circus act. Demographics favor the Democrats only if they wake up and take advantage of demographics. There's no guarantee. How did they let the statehouses and Governors of blue states go Republican? The GOP's best friend is gerrymandering to shut out Democratic voters in congressional races and voter suppression tactics. The GOP doesn't control the House of Representatives based on the quality or intelligence or experience of their candidates. Remember Tip O'Neil's comment that "all politics is local"? Democrats need to take that to heart.
The problem with using facts with liberals is that they don't mean much if anything to them....the emotional feeling of a decision and the hive support are what is important.
and that is exactly why they want a recount in 3 states, think protesting and rioting will gain them something and refuse to act like adults. Maybe if more of them actually voted the outcome would have been different.
Although GOP still won, the margin he won over was less or way less than the margins Romney won over!
Arizona
2012 - Romney +9.1%
2016 - Trump +3.6%
Georgia
2012 - Romney +7.8%
2016 - Trump +5.7%
Texas
2012 - Romney +15.8%
2016 - Trump +9.2%
Utah
2012 - Romney +48.0%
2016 - Trump +19.0%
Arizona and Texas? Sure maybe. Utah? No, that's complete nonsense. The X factor you're leaving out in the Utah tally is Evan McMullin. He ran as an Independent as a "Conservative option that isn't Donald Trump." He very nearly tied with Hillary in Utah:
Donald Trump: 452,086 - 45.9%
Hillary Clinton: 274,188 - 27.8%
Evan McMullin: 207,288 - 21.0%
Gary Johnson: 33,142 - 3.4%
Jill Stein: 7,695 - 0.8%
D Castle: 6,665 - 0.7%
Significantly, McMullin is anti-abortion. The Dems will not make much headway in Utah while they remain pro-abortion, trust me.
Arizona and Texas? Sure maybe. Utah? No, that's complete nonsense. The X factor you're leaving out in the Utah tally is Evan McMullin. He ran as an Independent as a "Conservative option that isn't Donald Trump." He very nearly tied with Hillary in Utah:
Donald Trump: 452,086 - 45.9%
Hillary Clinton: 274,188 - 27.8%
Evan McMullin: 207,288 - 21.0%
Gary Johnson: 33,142 - 3.4%
Jill Stein: 7,695 - 0.8%
D Castle: 6,665 - 0.7%
Significantly, McMullin is anti-abortion. The Dems will not make much headway in Utah while they remain pro-abortion, trust me.
Absolutely correct.
Salt Lake City is growing more liberal as Utah is becoming an increasingly important computer state, but Utah still has a very long way to go before it catches up to California or Washington, and the urban liberalism quickly fades once outside the Salt Lake City limits. The further out one goes, the more conservative Utah gets, and it's a conservatism that is older, longer and stronger than just about any state in the conservative Intermountain West.
And it's as much a religious conservatism as much as secular. A person's politics can change a lot faster than their faith, and the LDS faith has learned how to bend just enough to keep their flock relatively content.
A favorite son in Utah will always be a Mormon, even if the person lives on the other side of the country. That's not going to change. And the faith and their politics have always gone hand in hand with equal conservatism in both.
Arizona is full of Mormons too. They are outnumbered now, but that's a new phenomenon, and the continuation of Arizona as the great retirement home for the West probably won't last forever. When all the others decamp for a cooler climate elsewhere, you can bet your bottom dollar the grizzled Mormons will remain; they were some of the very first white folks to arrive, after all.
Absolutely correct.
Salt Lake City is growing more liberal as Utah is becoming an increasingly important computer state, but Utah still has a very long way to go before it catches up to California or Washington, and the urban liberalism quickly fades once outside the Salt Lake City limits. The further out one goes, the more conservative Utah gets, and it's a conservatism that is older, longer and stronger than just about any state in the conservative Intermountain West.
And it's as much a religious conservatism as much as secular. A person's politics can change a lot faster than their faith, and the LDS faith has learned how to bend just enough to keep their flock relatively content.
A favorite son in Utah will always be a Mormon, even if the person lives on the other side of the country. That's not going to change. And the faith and their politics have always gone hand in hand with equal conservatism in both.
Arizona is full of Mormons too. They are outnumbered now, but that's a new phenomenon, and the continuation of Arizona as the great retirement home for the West probably won't last forever. When all the others decamp for a cooler climate elsewhere, you can bet your bottom dollar the grizzled Mormons will remain; they were some of the very first white folks to arrive, after all.
And it's not as though the Mormon community votes as a block. They don't. I find it quite interesting how this year has played out. The GOP and it's long tradition of telling people how to live their lives in moralistic terms saw a revolution against that status quo in the form of Donald Trump. Trump honestly doesn't care much about opposing gay rights, gay marriage, which restroom a trans takes a leak in, whether you're approved by the Evangelical GOP, etc. It is doubtful whether he cares all that much about abortion to be honest. Many Latter Day Saints care a great deal about most of these issues and I think that's why Evan McMullin got a huge chunk of the vote there and in Idaho -- the second most Mormon state.
Trump is shifting the GOP away from those wedge morality issues and towards the stuff that wins votes: The economy and jobs. His level of success on these matters will be the single biggest determining factor in his own and the GOP's success or failure going forward. It's a curious development to see the Democrats become more hyperfocused on their own wedge issue causes and while the GOP becomes less so. If Trump is successful then his reinvention of the GOP will be permanent and extremely successful in elections. That will likely force the Democrats to evolve as well.
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I'll Say It Again For Those Who Missed It.....
