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On election night, CNN waited for the Black votes to roll in for Hillary in Detroit, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. And they waited...And waited..
Until Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were called for Trump.
Trump visited a Black church in Detroit and spoke about Black issues in the Midwest. (Sincere or not, doesn't matter.) While Hillary was firing up LGBT votes in Fort Lauderdale that were of no help.
All Trump needed was to take an extra sliver of the Black vote. Which he did.
I don't think that is the best example - Florida is absolutely a swing state and mobilizing those groups who are going to support your candidacy makes sense. It didn't work out for Clinton, but campaigning in Florida was not among the many mistakes she made. Virtually ignoring Michigan and Wisconsin was a huge and costly error that isn't likely to be repeated by the next Democratic nominee.
Philadelphia is also the key location for black voters in Pennsylvania, more so than Pittsburgh.
That's true. Things are subject to change, but it still comes down to the basic demographic groups and how they compare politically.
1. As white non-college voters continues to fall as a percentage of the vote both nationally and by state due to aging out, what voters replace them?
2. Do minority voters continue to be a bloc vote against the GOP?
3. How much of a disparity will exist in the future between the voting patterns of white college grads and white non-college grads? The closer the two groups track, the better for the GOP, but as of now in almost every case, white college tracks less R than white non-college.
4. Will Latino voters continue to identify as and vote as members of a minority group or will they fragment with more identifying as white and start trending more Republican?
5. How long can the GOP follow a Trumpian white identity blue collar formula without exacerbating their problems with the groups that are growing?
If you could answer those questions you could map the future, but it's all just an educated guess at this point.
For # 4 - some clues from the 2016 election can be seen in the county results. There are parts of Colorado and New Mexico that have high proportions of Hispanic voters who are not recent immigrants, but have strong multi-generational roots in the area. Many of these counties (e.g. the Pueblo area) were traditionally Democratic, but swung right to support Trump. So their voting patterns aligned more with predominantly white working class locations in other parts of the country than heavily Hispanic areas that have a lot of newly naturalized residents (e.g. greater Phoenix, Houston, central California), where Trump lost ground compared to previous Republicans.
I think there is a very strong argument for Hispanic (and Asian) groups assimilating more with whites of comparable educational and economic status as generations get more removed from the immigrant experience. More of these populations are spreading to locations across America where they have not traditionally had a major presence. In a historic context, there is some similarity with the experience of various European nationalities from the past who are now greatly assimilated as just Americans. The black experience has been quite different, and I would expect it's going to take a lot of changes from the Republican party before their vote is less reliably Democratic. I don't think Trump's rhetoric did him any favors, but he benefited from Clinton's deficiencies relative to Obama's.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BougNeg1
On election night, CNN waited for the Black votes to roll in for Hillary in Detroit, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. And they waited...And waited..
Until Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were called for Trump.
Trump visited a Black church in Detroit and spoke about Black issues in the Midwest. (Sincere or not, doesn't matter.) While Hillary was firing up LGBT votes in Fort Lauderdale that were of no help.
All Trump needed was to take an extra sliver of the Black vote. Which he did.
There is no data to suggest Trump won that sliver of black votes. Its more accurate to say he got them to vote for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.
There is no data to suggest Trump won that sliver of black votes. Its more accurate to say he got them to vote for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.
The most conservative figures I have seen indicates Trump got 8% of the Black vote, up from Romney's 6%, nationwide.
From Michigan Live-- Traditional Michigan Democratic voters in inner cities such as Detroit and Flint helped President Obama win his second term in 2012, but didn't pack the same punch for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Republican Donald Trump remained a whisker ahead of Clinton Wednesday, Nov. 9, -- 48 to 47 percent -- with 99 percent of all precincts in the state counted.
That enthusiasm gap showed itself in Genesee County, anchored by the city of Flint, which is 56 percent black. Clinton's margin of victory was 52-42 percent -- a 19,000 vote advantage, but not close to Obama's performance in 2012 against Republican Mitt Romney -- a 63-35 percent win and 57,000-vote cushion.
From Forbes-- Take Michigan for example. A state that Obama won in 2012 by 350,000 votes, Clinton lost by roughly 10,000. Why? She received 300,000 votes less than Obama did in 2012. Detroit and Wayne County should kick themselves because of the 595,253 votes they gave Obama in 2012, only 518,000 voted for Clinton in 2016. Mote than 75,000 Motown Obama voters did not bother to vote for Clinton! They did not become Trump voters – Trump received only 10,000 votes more than Romney did in this county.
From Milwaukee Journal Sentinal-- The most striking Democratic turnout decline came in Milwaukee County. It cast more than 50,000 fewer votes than 2012, the second biggest drop-off in the state in percentage terms. The drop off was even steeper in the city of Milwaukee. African-American turnout was down from 2012 in other key states, too. Clinton's winning margin in the city of Milwaukee was around 27,000 voters smaller than Obama's four years earlier. That is equal to the size of her losing margin statewide.
From Huffington Post-- Trump’s Win Isn’t All About White People: Clinton Lost Black and Brown Votes In Key States
Like I said, Trump only needed a sliver of Black folks to win this election. If Clinton had simply breezed through a Black neighborhood in Detroit or Milwaukee and kissed 3 Black babies she would have won. She chose not to.
A few years ago, when I first started posting here, the OP repeatedly posted the opinion that in order to maintain long term success, the Republican Party must diversify its base. During the Trump campaign he changed his tune and is now convinced that the Pubs will rule ad infinatum by running up the score with white blue collar voters, despite the fact that that's the demographic group that's statistically dropping like a rock. With them, he's convinced that the GOP will control everything but Acela and the Left Coast. He mentions more electoral votes coming to the Sunbelt but never mentions that that increase is fueled by increase in minority population, which slowly undermines the R control in those states.
If the GOP continues to be overly dependent on white non-college voters, and continues to use angry Trumpian dog whistles to drum up support in that fading demographic, they risk doing long term damage to themselves with the growing demographics. That's the truth. As Howard Schnellenberger said once about the success of his football team, "the only variable is time."
What are the "growing demographics" in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin? I've lived in Pennsylvania all of my life and I'm not aware of them. If anything, Pittsburgh has had an influx of hipsters/yuppies and has been getting whiter (though, admittedly, these sort of people tend to vote Democrat.)
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Location: Pine Grove,AL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BougNeg1
The most conservative figures I have seen indicates Trump got 8% of the Black vote, up from Romney's 6%, nationwide.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BougNeg1
Like I said, Trump only needed a sliver of Black folks to win this election. If Clinton had simply breezed through a Black neighborhood in Detroit or Milwaukee and kissed 3 Black babies she would have won. She chose not to.
Exit polls Trump won 6% of Black voters, Romney won 5% in Michigan
In Wisconsin it was 6% for Trump, 6% for Romney
Your own quote said they didnt become trump voters(LOL, nice for you not to put that part in bold. ), they voted for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.
Exit polls Trump won 6% of Black voters, Romney won 5% in Michigan
In Wisconsin it was 6% for Trump, 6% for Romney
Your own quote said they didnt become trump voters(LOL, nice for you not to put that part in bold. ), they voted for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.
A "no-vote" among blacks was the equivalent of an "anti-Clinton" vote. Under normal circumstances, the African-American vote would be nearly automatic for the Democratic nominee.
Trump went to the Midwest and actually "asked" black people for the vote; Clinton did not.
I think most African-Americans could not have consciously voted for Trump but they DID consciously "punish" Hillary Clinton by staying at home. That is why the expected high numbers of black votes in Detroit, Flint and Milwaukee simply were not there.
With those votes Hillary would be President today.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,560 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6042
Quote:
Originally Posted by BougNeg1
A "no-vote" among blacks was the equivalent of an "anti-Clinton" vote. Under normal circumstances, the African-American vote would be nearly automatic for the Democratic nominee.
Trump went to the Midwest and actually "asked" black people for the vote; Clinton did not.
I think most African-Americans could not have consciously voted for Trump but they DID consciously "punish" Hillary Clinton by staying at home. That is why the expected high numbers of black votes in Detroit, Flint and Milwaukee simply were not there.
With those votes Hillary would be President today.
I never said that those people voted for Clinton, I have said from the beginning that Jill Stein and Gary Johnson took a share of the black vote.
YOU are the one who claimed they actually voted for Trump, which is untrue. Your own link even said that.
And again, it doesnt look like Black people stayed home in either state, they seemed to have voted Stein and johnson. There are some counties of exception, but besides that, no.
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