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Old 08-08-2017, 10:21 AM
 
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Attached is a data-laden article from Larry Sabato's site that examines the political changes of Virginia from 1968 through 2016. Of particular interest, it tracks the partisan lean of VA as compared with the nation as a whole for each election. From 1996 on, the movement has steadily been to the Democrats, going from 10.48% more Republican than the nation in 1996 to 3.23% more Democratic in 2016.

The urban crescent of Virginia is growing rapidly, is racially diverse and is heavily Democrat while rural Virginia is becoming more Republican, but is losing population.


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The New Dominion: Virginia

Lots of data there to parse through.
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Old 08-12-2017, 06:00 AM
 
59,089 posts, read 27,318,346 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Attached is a data-laden article from Larry Sabato's site that examines the political changes of Virginia from 1968 through 2016. Of particular interest, it tracks the partisan lean of VA as compared with the nation as a whole for each election. From 1996 on, the movement has steadily been to the Democrats, going from 10.48% more Republican than the nation in 1996 to 3.23% more Democratic in 2016.

The urban crescent of Virginia is growing rapidly, is racially diverse and is heavily Democrat while rural Virginia is becoming more Republican, but is losing population.


Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The New Dominion: Virginia

Lots of data there to parse through.
Sabato has admitted he is a registered dem.

Even with that I have always liked him and find him to be honest.

I am from the D.C area and just about everybody knows that the surrounding areas of DC are mostty dem.

The fed gov't had grown and grown creating MANY jobs, MANY from liberal fed agencies.

MOST fed gov't employees and gov't contracors vote dem in order to keep their jobs, so it is NO surprised that Norther Virginia would be dominated by dems.

The population expansion has been primarily in the Northern Va. area.
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Old 08-17-2017, 11:00 PM
 
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Those trends will reverse as the swamp is drained and as immigration laws are actually enforced.
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Old 08-19-2017, 11:34 AM
 
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NOVA is full of DC or federal bureaucracy-employed Dems. just look at the population density of the Virginia DC burbs. Of course the state has turned from Red to almost a sure-Blue. Duh! As the federal government grows, so does the DEM base. Federal bennies are terrific. Don't bite the hand that feeds you. Further, the bureaucracies are full ofshould/ought, appropriate, feeler-type, rule writing and enforcing people.

Fits.
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Old 08-19-2017, 03:53 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
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Originally Posted by earthlyfather View Post
NOVA is full of DC or federal bureaucracy-employed Dems. just look at the population density of the Virginia DC burbs. Of course the state has turned from Red to almost a sure-Blue. Duh! As the federal government grows, so does the DEM base. Federal bennies are terrific. Don't bite the hand that feeds you. Further, the bureaucracies are full ofshould/ought, appropriate, feeler-type, rule writing and enforcing people.

Fits.

Fairfax County is home to many fortune 500 companies, so it's far from just government employees. Metro Richmond has also swung Democratic.
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Old 08-19-2017, 04:18 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Fairfax County is home to many fortune 500 companies, so it's far from just government employees. Metro Richmond has also swung Democratic.
True

Also a lot of lobbyists and defense contractor types that aren't necessarily bleeding hearts. The federal government angle has certainly played a role in the state turning blue, but the decreasing share of the total vote cast by rural Virginia is probably just as big a factor. The three metros of NOVA, Hampton Roads and Richmond are all contributors to the turn left by the state with NOVA being the most influential of the three.
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Old 08-21-2017, 05:20 PM
 
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Not nearly as complicated as one thinks.

Incredible growth in the size of the US Federal Government = Huge population in NOVA completely dependent upon federally funded jobs and services. The rest of the state except for very urban Richmond is Red.
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Old 08-21-2017, 05:46 PM
 
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The rest of the state is not all red.

Henrico isn't red. Newport News, Hampton, Sufolk, Norfolk, Portsmouth, James City, Williamsburg, Charlottesville, Rosnoke, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Petersburg etc are not red. Chesterfield is on the cusp of turning too.

And the economy of NoVa is way more complex than you'd like to believe.
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Old 08-21-2017, 06:02 PM
 
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Originally Posted by spencer114 View Post


And the economy of NoVa is way more complex than you'd like to believe.
Not really. Take away federally funded jobs (direct/indirect) and the place turns into a ghost town overnight. It's the only place in the nation where, on snow days, the local news says who gets to stay home by GS #.
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Old 08-23-2017, 03:24 PM
 
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It also has the most tech companies outside of Silicon Valley and is the major data center hub ( nearly all Internet traffic flows through there) east of the Mississippi.
Banking is pretty big there too. Throw in medical, retail and hospitality and you have a pretty well balanced economy.
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