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"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident
If every black voter and every white liberal voter went to the polls, I'd agree with you. But that's only compared to the standard white conservative voter turnout.
On the flip side, if every white conservative voter went to the polls, the conservatives would still win comfortably in MS. Of course, for this particular election, I'm not seeing signs that black voters are particularly enthusiastic about voting.
That is actually not true, at least based on demographics. Maximum support from either side comes out near 50/50
That is actually not true, at least based on demographics. Maximum support from either side comes out near 50/50
I disagree. Up to 90% of white voters back the GOP in Mississippi, while a slightly higher % of black voters back the Dems in MS: Mississippi Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com. I've seen nothing to suggest that these numbers would change drastically even if voter turnout was 100% among all racial groups in MS. You'd have more blacks voting and more white liberals, but you'd also have more conservative whites voting. Note, in 2008 and 2012 black voter turnout in MS was very high. The math just doesn't work for Democrats in MS and other Deep South states . . . not without support from conservative voters: https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...ot-flip-missi/
This is actually more in line with the other poll that was taken...
The issue is the poll you are citing was taken back at the beginning of July, things have changed since then with the Manafort trial & the Omarosa tapes going public.
I really cannot imagine a scenario where the Democrat holds Indiana. He was elected six years ago because he drew an idiot opponent who could not figure out was rape was. And that was a Presidential year which tends to flush out more Democrats.
If he wins the Democratic wave will have been massive. I just don't have a sense that is the case.
Might need to revise the above, just saw a poll with the Democrat leading in the Mississippi race. Espy who commissioned the Poll is up 3 on (R) Hyde-Smith who is favored to win the republican nomination.
One thing to also keep in mind about this race is a Jungle Primary is taking place on November 6th, if one candidate gets 50% + 1 they win outright, if no one receives that amount a runoff is held three weeks later with the top two regardless of party. The most likely scenario is Espy and Hyde-Smith advancing. The chances of someone winning 50% + 1 appear slim, Espy seems assured to advance while Hyde-Smith is likely.
I wouldn't put too much stock into the poll showing Espy ahead of Hyde-Smith, it is a campaign internal. In order for the Democrats to pick up a Senate seat in the deep south they really need a completely off the wall candidate on the GOP side, not a generic conservative Republican which is what Hyde-Smith generally is. With that said if this winds up being Espy vs McDaniel I do think Espy would have a decent chance at winning
No polling data along with 35% of the people polled being 65 or older means its not a legit poll...35% of the population of Indiana is NOT 65 or older lol.
Read the bottom of the poll. It says they weighted it based on expected turnout of voters. This means 65 and older might have received less weight and the other age ranges possibly more weight in the poll. Weighting is not the same as the percentages which responded. It's a calculation that's applied later in order to ensure the poll responses match the expected electorate turnout.
Weighting is not solely based on demographics of a state. It's also based on expected voter turnout demographics. Weighting is done when responses to polls don't match the expected voter turnout demographics. Lots of folks on C-D seem to get confused about poll weighting.
Pasted from bottom of last page of Trafalgar poll:
Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the geographic and demographic breakdown of expected Indiana 2018 general election participants. Final results are
based on these weights in order to address non-response bias.
Read the bottom of the poll. It says they weighted it based on expected turnout of voters. This means 65 and older got less weight and the other age ranges got more weight in the poll. Weighting is not the same as the percentages which responded. It's a calculation that's applied later.
BTW, poll turnout and weighting is not based on demographics of a state. It's based on expected voter turnout demographics.
Pasted from bottom of last page of Trafalgar poll:
Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the geographic and demographic breakdown of expected Indiana 2018 general election participants. Final results are
based on these weights in order to address non-response bias.
Heck of a way to do polls...well we THINK this many people will show up....good lord..this is worse than the oversampling democrats over republicans...
I really cannot imagine a scenario where the Democrat holds Indiana. He was elected six years ago because he drew an idiot opponent who could not figure out was rape was. And that was a Presidential year which tends to flush out more Democrats.
If he wins the Democratic wave will have been massive. I just don't have a sense that is the case.
I do not think we should make too much out of a single poll, and while I believe Donnelly is up, I doubt it is by this much. I do think it is somewhat interesting that this poll is from a Republican firm, however.
Heck of a way to do polls...well we THINK this many people will show up....good lord..this is worse than the oversampling democrats over republicans...
That's how ALL political polls are done. Every single one of them. It's not just "think" this many will show up. It's scientific based on prior electorate turnout.
Seems you don't understand how polls work. Polls would be very bad if they gave younger people percentages based on state demographics because younger people vote in much lower percentages than older. Polls have to take this into account.
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