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Nixon lost the WH race in 60, and the race for CA governor in 62 yet still managed to get elected to two terms (though if RFK hadn't been assassinated, Nixon would have lost in 68)
Maybe, maybe not. The Democrat party by that point was ruined by the Vietnam war. Almost every day in the late 1960s, the news, when it was still relatively honest, was reporting sometimes 100s of servicemen being killed in that meat grinder.
It's the very reason that LBJ didn't run for a 2nd term. He knew his goose was cooked.
Walter Cronkite and the Tet Offensive pretty much insured that Nixon was going to win it. The only thorn he had to contend with was, ironically, George Wallace who wasn't a Democrat.
The candidates who throw their hat in the ring and drop out early don't get hurt as much if they stay in and lose for quite a while before they drop out.
Hmm.
It didn't hurt Hillary who stayed to the bitter end in her fight with Obama. And even then took several days to actually concede to the hapless community agitator. (must have been a very bitter pill for Bill Clinton's estranged wife) Democrats infamously nominated her 8 years later.
Biden is OLD, white and male-major knocks against him in the Dem party. He also isn't too bright-making many dumb comments and gaffes-which in themselves are entertaining-but not when it's from the potential president. And finally, in the era of #metoo, groping Joe would either be demonized-or the party trashed for hypocrisy. Unless the party comes up with another old-school, pro-establishment player, it'll be Hillary the Crypt Keeper, once again.
But Hillary announced she isn't running for president. It didn't surprise me.
I do not like Joe Biden as a politician and I do not think he can win the Primary should he decide to throw his hat in the ring. I think Bernie will win and beat Trump or whoever wins the Republican primary. It is looking more and more like some Republicans will run against Trump in the Primary because his reputation is ruined.
Trump has close to 90% support among republicans. Yes the democrats and some republicans hate him but I would think its unlikely he will get more than a token challenge. Trump has made the GOP his party. There really is no other national voice on the GOP side.
And as a GOP political opp said during the controversy over Clinton and the super delegates. The parties pick the nominee, not the voters. The DNC proved that in 2016 and the GOP might do the same in 2020.
No, not Hillary Clinton, instead, it will be Joe Biden. But he won't beat Trump, either, since he is a proven loser, and Republicans will be utterly obsessed over the creepy way he sometimes acts around women.
I agree Hillary is done and won't run. The days of a old straight white gentile guy getting the nomination for the dems is over. Biden will fall off quickly like Jed Bush did.
Sanders or Harris. Harris has 3 things on Bernie. She is relatively young, black and a woman. And Sanders would be following the same path as Hillary. Lost the first time in the primaries and will have to face Trump in 2020. Incumbent Trump. Much tougher situation than Hillary faced. But the dems love socialism and Bernie so who knows.
I would say pick someone from Florida, Texas or Ohio that can win their respective state. Beto? Despite his nickname he is also a straight, white, gentile guy but he is younger. If he delivers Texas Trump will lose.
Harris has one advantage over Bernie.
She is from the west.
So far, the Republican party has done its best when it has nominated a westerner. Win or lose, a westerner has always advanced the Republican party in some important way toward the long-term good of the party.
So far, the Democratic party has never nominated a westerner. All their nominees have come from the eastern seaboard and the northeast, extending to the mid-west.
Those areas the the ones that are all losing population to the west, which is the fastest growing section of the nation. The immigrants to the west have been completely ignored by the Democratic party's leadership and actively courted by the Republican leadership.
The old Democratic stronghold in the east cannot hold any longer with any certainty. Meanwhile, California, the most powerful state and the largest population state in the country, along with every major population center in the West, has gone Democratic.
The Democrats of the west are rapidly changing the traditional political demographics of the region in all the largest and fastest-growing areas. If the party recognizes them, and delivers a nominee who also recognizes their importance, the party will win 2020.
Harris is from the west and of the west. If she can unite the westerners behind her, she can win the nomination. If her party will support her in a western effort, they will win the election.
President Trump will win re-election. I don't buy into the idea that many conservatives stayed home in 2016. Sure, people were skeptical a few years ago. But you have to also understand that people were sick and tired of the same old campaign promises by the same old politicians being broken time and time again. We were sick and tired of an atrocity display in D.C. that was the hallmark of Barack Obama's wretched administration. You had corrupt politicians, and people were tired of it all. President Trump (as he now is) had decided to break the mold. At least he has an idea of how to put America back together again, and this is not an overnight fix, and he knows it. He's a businessman, not a politician. Trump is running Washington like a business. Okay, so he's a little flamboyant at times. So what? At least, he's done what he has said he'll do, and he's done much of it, unfortunately, with very little cooperation from Congress. I'll agree that not just anyone should run for president, but in Trump's case, with his real-world experience (and it doesn't hurt that he has name recognition), it just made perfect sense. He had a contrast to the radical left.
People are seeing change taking place in our nation's economy as has never been seen in many years. When people are back to work, it pays off for improving lives and seeing a country thrive. Donald Trump has made a difference.
This is why he has the advantage to win in 2020. You can't vote against a good economy, and he's the only one running next year who can really back that claim up.
I said something similar somewhere. I forgot as there’s so many Trump bashing threads it’s hard to keep track. The very reasons many despise him for are the reasons I voted for him. Dems lost me a while ago. I’m white, female, college educated, professional and in my 50’s . They don’t understand me at all and nor do they care to try anymore. This is why they will lose again to Trump.
And as a GOP political opp said during the controversy over Clinton and the super delegates. The parties pick the nominee, not the voters. The DNC proved that in 2016 and the GOP might do the same in 2020.
On the GOP's side there simply exists no mechanism where this can be done. If they could have, they'd would have used it against Trump in 2016. It's Trump's party now. Many of the Never Trumpers were flushed out in this last election cycle and others have lost influence.
On the other hand, it was the Super Delegates who decided the primaries in 2008 & 2016 for the DNC as neither candidates, Obama/Hillary, Hillary/Sanders had enough elected delegates to win the nomination. It's a system that should be eliminated along with the secret caucus system.
On the GOP's side there simply exists no mechanism where this can be done. If they could have, they'd would have used it against Trump in 2016. It's Trump's party now. Many of the Never Trumpers were flushed out in this last election cycle and others have lost influence.
On the other hand, it was the Super Delegates who decided the primaries in 2008 & 2016 for the DNC as neither candidates, Obama/Hillary, Hillary/Sanders had enough elected delegates to win the nomination. It's a system that should be eliminated along with the secret caucus system.
To me the best system would be to just have election day. Let the candidates campaign all year and just have an election. If no one gets 50% have a runoff of the top 3. Get rid of the primaries and perhaps the power of the two biggest parties. Why do Iowa and New Hampshire get to narrow the field down? Alternative would be to have one primary day where every state votes at the same time. This staggered primary system only really helps the RNC and DNC. They let people think they have a choice but behind the scenes the parties can pick who they really want.
True Trump was able to overcome the RNC who did not want him to be the nominee. But without the super delegate option they could not stop Trump from winning.
I think Hillary had the votes even without super delegates. But early on the super delegates made her look like she was running away with the race where in reality Sanders was pretty close. That alone probably sealed her victory.
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