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Sabato's Crystal Ball is a well-known non-partisan website at the University of Virginia. Their analysis is sane, logical, and they don't jump on every poll. They are small-c conservative in their conclusions.
Using two independent models, they conclude Joe Biden is the likely winner with around 340 to 350 electoral college votes.
Sabato's Crystal Ball is a well-known non-partisan website at the University of Virginia. Their analysis is sane, logical, and they don't jump on every poll. They are small-c conservative in their conclusions.
Using two independent models, they conclude Joe Biden is the likely winner with around 340 to 350 electoral college votes.
Given where we are in the polls, 340 is not far-fetched at all. Biden has a better than 50% chance of winning Pennsylvania and if you think Florida is a toss-up, then he's got a 50% chance of winning there too. He wins both Florida and Penn then 340 is easy.
340-350 doesn't seem likely. The current RCP no toss-up map looks more realistic for a Biden win.
It has FL going to Trump and IA & NC going to Biden. That puts it at 311 - 227.
The only way Biden could get 340 is if the Democrats hack the system and steal the election in Texas and Georgia. Anybody who says its 340-350 isn't making much sense. More likely Trump gets 340.
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