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Well we know Obama has to win NC but I think if he edged out in Indiana, even by a small margin, we will see a number of superdelegate switching to Obama and it would likely be enough to give him the super delegate lead. He currently leads in pledge delegates and the popular vote so with a super delegate lead, there is NO WAY the nomination will be taken away from Obama. . . .
Certainly if Obama wins Indiana and takes NC by the 20+ predicted last week he's looking good.
Well we know Obama has to win NC but I think if he edged out in Indiana, even by a small margin, we will see a number of superdelegate switching to Obama and it would likely be enough to give him the super delegate lead. He currently leads in pledge delegates and the popular vote so with a super delegate lead, there is NO WAY the nomination will be taken away from Obama. I will say this. In Greensboro, which is North Carolina's third largest city, Obama has received more campaign donations than Hillary has.
Obama should do really well in the NC urban areas and citizens shouldnt have a problem electing a black president. Both Greensboro and Durham currently have black mayors and Charlotte has had a black mayor in the past.
Greensboro, NC population: 245,000 (NC's 3rd largest city)
Here is the race ratio in Greensboro
White 53.6%
Black 37.4%
Hispanic 4.4%
other 6%
main industry:textiles/insurance/manufacturing/distribution
-----------------------------
Obama should do real well in Durham
Durham, NC population 209,000 (NC's 5th largest city)
race ratio in Durham
Black 43%
White 42%
Hispanic 8%
other 5%
main industry: research/technology/tobacco
----------------------- Winston-Salem, NC population: 223,000 (NC's 4th largest city)
race ratio
White 52%
Black 37%
Hispanic 8%
other 6%
main industry: tobacco,manufacturing,research
----------------------- Raleigh, NC population: 356,000 (NC's 2nd largest city)
race ratio
White 60%
Black 27%
Hispanic 7%
other 9%
main industry: research/technology/governement
----------------------- Charlotte, NC population: 640,000 (NC's largest city)
race ratio
White 55%
Black 32%
Hispanic 7%
other 8%
main industry: banking & finance
If you look at the race ratios, Obama has a GREAT chance. Hillary might chip a little into the cities that have alot of traditional manufacturing (blue collar workers) but the big 5 cities In NC are not like the economically depressed cities in Ohio and Pennsylvania. North Carolina's economy, in general, seems to be booming especially in Charlotte and Raleigh. The poor housing market has not affected Charlotte and evidence of that is all the new homes that are under construction and all the big upscale condo skyscrapers that are now being built in uptown Charlotte and also on the drawing boards. Even areas such as Greensboro and Winston-Salem which were heavily tradional manufacturing cities known for brands such as Wrangler jeans, Winston, Salem and Newport cigarettes, are now enter a new economy with hitech manufacturing, research, distribution & logistics. Honda is currently building a jet factory and its aviation world headquarters in Greensboro. So with the economy being more on the upswing in NC and having a large "intelligent" population, Obama will win North Carolina pretty big. North Carolina is a pretty big state. Alot of people dont realize its the 10th most populated state in the country which is why the state has a big delagate prize. North Carolina also also alot of big universities including Duke and UNC-Chapel Hill.
Obama will convicingly win NC but Hillary will do best in eastern, NC where there really arent any sizable cities. The economy in eastern, NC is depressing and there are alot of rural voters there.
true fact: Hillary is winning in votes cast. Therefore, even if Hillary ties in NC and IN she's still winning in votes cast.
The real true facts:
Popular vote
Obama-14,418,784
Clinton-13,917,318
Obama +501,466
Popular vote with Fla.
Obama-14,994,318
Clinton-14,788,304
Obama +206,694
Those numbers are not adding in the caucuses or Mi, which was uncontested as all the leading candidates, except Clinton, withdrew their names from the ballot in keeping with the pledge they all, including Clinton, signed.
A newly released (5-2) Zogby tracking poll (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1495 - broken link) shows all that talk about Obama's demise may be premature. Note these polls were taken 4-30 & 5-1 After Obama severed his ties with Rev. Wright.
Obama leads by a 50% to 34% margin over Clinton in North Carolina, while the two are tied at 42% support each in Indiana.
An even newer Zogby International (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1496 - broken link) poll shows that talk about Obama's demise being premature may be premature. Note that these polls were taken 5/1 and 5/2 after Obama's politically motivated tossing of Rev Wright. Obama's lead has shunk from 16% to 9% in just two days.
An even newer Zogby International (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1496 - broken link) poll shows that talk about Obama's demise being premature may be premature. Note that these polls were taken 5/1 and 5/2 after Obama's politically motivated tossing of Rev Wright. Obama's lead has shunk from 16% to 9% in just two days.
He's tanking.
All that does is bring Zogby in line with the other major polls all of which have Obama leading by an average of 7%. Obama leads in every current poll taken in NC by at least 5%.
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