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It doesn't look like any one group is following him now. His candidacy follows the line of "well here's what we've got to go with". Where's the enthusiasm? He has been effectively characterized as the third term of the current President. He let this happen. Senator's Obama and Clinton made sure they used all available airtime (and they had plenty) to typecast him as President Bush's third term. The characterization is now so inescapable that he must defend against Senator Obama and the President's popularity. Whether mentioned or not, fair or not, it has been effectively placed on his shoulders. His "maverick status" has been wiped out by these two factors his inability to solidify the conservative base, and his consequential move towards the center. The pulls may just be too great for him to overcome.
I don't think McCain's alleged "move to the center" is a response to Bush/Cheney/Rove. My response to Bush/Cheney/Rove are trials, jail terms and maybe capital punishment if so adjudicated.
The great strength in our nation has always been the center. Probably 2/3 of the electorate is within a short distance to either side of center, if we can ever define a point on a straight line where the exact center really lies.
Complicating the OP's scenario is that there are many distinct factions within the GOP. In his wonderfully written book, The New American Story, former 3-times U.S. Senator Bill Bradley lays out 12 distinct factions within the GOP. Some of these factions would follow JM to the center, not all.
IMO, both candidates need to focus on the center and avoid the extremes on each end. In the end it will come down to which candidate has a better plan for moving forward, and right now there is no contest there. McCain wants four more years of the bumbling we've seen. Obama wants to fix what's been wrong for so long.
Many Republicans will vote for him if he is the nominee. Plain and simple. They refuse to vote Democrat and think voting third party is a wasted vote. He's not the perfect candidate for hardly any Republican, but given the environment today, he's a pretty good one to go up against Obama. If the election were to be a landslide, I think the polls would already indicate that. Unless either candidate makes some serious blunders between now and November, it's going to come down to one or two states again with half the country pissed off for 4 more years. That's not change that either candidate can overcome.
It's going to be hard. The modern GOP is very, very far right of center over the last decade and pulling it back toward the center is going to be a tough task for McCain. What's funny is that conservatives decry how liberal the Democrats are, when compared to "real" liberal parties in other countries, they'd still probably be considered conservative! Or at least centrist.
I'm not sure but sometimes I think our country may become more liberal if McCain won instead of Obama.
If Obama wins there is a clearly defined line if McCain wins that line becomes blurred. I think most people can't/won't see that line and vote by party affiliation.
If McCain wins I think he would bring the Republicans closer to center, I also think Democrats would find McCain easier to deal than Bush was. Therefore a government that may actually get things done. A positive that would pave the way for future Republicans.
It's going to be hard. The modern GOP is very, very far right of center over the last decade and pulling it back toward the center is going to be a tough task for McCain. What's funny is that conservatives decry how liberal the Democrats are, when compared to "real" liberal parties in other countries, they'd still probably be considered conservative! Or at least centrist.
Hillary would be a comfortable moderate. Even Obama would be considered a moderate compared to almost any European country. Ahmadinenajad in Iran is a conservative - meaning he wants no change and wants the power structure to remain intact, the real definition of Conservatism used in the rest of the world.
The reality is that most people are closer to the center than the people they vote for and they usually govern that way. Obama could be an exception but I doubt it. He will disappoint his hard left wing of the party because he has to to get re-elected or at least attempt to. It is politics 101 and they all follow the same game plan. The difference is only in the label and until a viable third party appears on the scene we will continue to have more of the same election after election. Sad but reality!
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