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GOP Increase in Party ID After Convention Not Unusual
Such short-term shifts in party affiliation are a regular occurrence after a party's convention -- Gallup has measured an increase in the percentage of Americans identifying with a party after its convention since 1992, averaging 4 percentage points.
But are those increases temporary, or do they have some staying power? In general, it appears that the increases are short-lived and fade as the enthusiasm from the convention subsides.
Thus, while the Republicans have cut into the Democratic advantage in party identification, it is likely that this year's election will still be contested in a political environment that is more favorable to the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.
GOP Increase in Party ID After Convention Not Unusual
Such short-term shifts in party affiliation are a regular occurrence after a party's convention -- Gallup has measured an increase in the percentage of Americans identifying with a party after its convention since 1992, averaging 4 percentage points.
But are those increases temporary, or do they have some staying power? In general, it appears that the increases are short-lived and fade as the enthusiasm from the convention subsides.
Thus, while the Republicans have cut into the Democratic advantage in party identification, it is likely that this year's election will still be contested in a political environment that is more favorable to the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.
Really the game depends on the debates now. Obama had better come out blazing and hit a grand slam and pray that McCain or Palin say something stupid. Right now we are about where JFK was with Nixon and JFK smoked Nixon in the debates which is what won it.
Sorry, but the increase in GOPer's is not just due to the convention, it's due to Palin bringing in the "base", completely.
I agree but still think it's a bounce. Palin is just such an unexpected choice that the ball went up a little higher than it normally would...but at some point has to come back down to earth. The backlash has started...
Anybody here ever read the book, "The Big Sort" by Bill Bishop? It's about the clustering of like-minded Americans (the red state/blue state divide but down to a much lower level of division than state level) and naturally, a lot of it is devoted to election voting patterns. I think political junkies of either persuasion would enjoy it.
You know it explores the question - How could the election turn out that way if everybody I know thinks like me?
You mean the backlash on the media, obama and his supporters, right?
Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
Have you looked at this sea of "red" lately? Notice MI, PA, WA, NJ.
You mean the backlash on the media, obama and his supporters, right?
Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
Have you looked at this sea of "red" lately? Notice MI, PA, WA, NJ.
Actually I do think there's backlash all around...lots of buzz around Obama not being tough enough (I think the mainstream media has been just fine...that criticism to me is not valid).
Yesterday you posted Zogby which showed an Obama advantage.
They say that polls are a snapshot in time so I'm not really paying much attention to those (yet)
Actually, until they find a way to do polling with people who use cell phones and not land lines, I don't take the polls very seriously this year. The majority of folks under 30 do not even have land lines. They use cell phones exclusively. And a big chunk of Obama's support is in this age group.
Seems like the Electoral map is still shifting to McCain. Any idea when the bounce will be finished?
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