Ap poll - 10/22/08 - all even in the homestretch (voting, interviews, polls)

[ashrob123]

Originally Posted by sanrene

Oh, right. And ABC, CBS, NBC, NYTimes don't? Hilarious!

Check this poll out on RCP;

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/...08_release.pdf

Obama +5, right? This is the kind of stuff I'm always ranting about - 13% MORE dems than reps - and ONLY a five point lead? Please.

You do realize that at any given time that there are more Democrats than Republicans in this country? In 2004 there were 72 million Democrats, 55 million Republicans and 42 million independents. Democrats represent proportionally more of the electorate.

[pirate girl]

I'm not watching national numbers very closely any more. The states are much more realistic and interesting.

[sanrene]

Almost all the straight forward polls that simply ask......"who do you plan to vote for?" all show McCain leading!

Keep in mind these fact:

1. The major polling samples are taken by mostly by 18-30 year old liberal polsters. Are they honest?

2. The polls set all sorts of criteria as to whom they poll.

3. A higher percentage of under aged 30 being polled then ever before

4. 15-22% more Democrats being polled then ever before

All straight up polls, show McCain ahead and quite comfortably.

You forgot one, the most important one, imho. The in-the-tank-for-Obama-media, who run most of these polls, use them to influence your thinking, to depress you, to discourage you, to make you think it is over, to make you think your vote won't matter, to get you to stay home.

Ignore the national polls. Anybody post the Gallup yet? Bots? No? I'll do it for you.

[sanrene]

You do realize that at any given time that there are more Democrats than Republicans in this country? In 2004 there were 72 million Democrats, 55 million Republicans and 42 million independents. Democrats represent proportionally more of the electorate.

I think not.

[Mister Mappy]

Originally Posted by sanrene

I think not.

Of course you don't.

[thebigr]

Still have not talked to one person who was polled yet.

[KsStorm]

Originally Posted by ashrob123

You do realize that at any given time that there are more Democrats than Republicans in this country? In 2004 there were 72 million Democrats, 55 million Republicans and 42 million independents. Democrats represent proportionally more of the electorate.

Thanks,that was my question. It's only common sense,I suppose. People keep saying "Oh,well, they're just polling MORE DEMs. Well, if there ARE more dems,wouldn't that make sense?? Haven't many ,many more people registered dem this year?

[Upton]

Originally Posted by sanrene

I think not.

This is as of 2004, the difference is more than likely even more pronounced today.

Democratic Party (United States) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

[sanrene]

Sanrene, why is it that polls matter to you again?

They don't. But I like clearing up misconceptions, incorrect analysis and pointing out the obvious that others like to ignore.

[TigerLily24]

Originally Posted by KsStorm

Thanks,that was my question. It's only common sense,I suppose. People keep saying "Oh,well, they're just polling MORE DEMs. Well, if there ARE more dems,wouldn't that make sense?? Haven't many ,many more people registered dem this year?

Yes, the polls are generally weighted to reflect the number of people registered in each party.

Details from Rasmussen:

"The current targets suggest a significantly better environment for Democrats than they faced in Election 2004. When President Bush was re-elected, the number of Republicans and Democrats in the nation were essentially even."

Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_3 9_3_democrat_33_0_republican - broken link)