Latest State Polls - mosty stable (John Kerry, votes, security, Democrats)

[Tennis702]

Intrade.com "market-based" predictions:

Electoral - Obama : 375 / McCain :163

$$ price - Obama : $87.70 / McCain : $12.80

Originally Posted by PollingReport.com

Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

How to Forecast an Election

[Happy Cells]

All polls need to be taken with a huge bag of salt.....people are going to vote the way they want...when they are in private, in the security of the voting booth.....not the way some pollster "hints" that they should vote....

[miamiman]

Arizona is getting closer. According to the NBC News poll, Arizona is now a "lean" McCain state as opposed to a "likely' McCain state. It would be a horrible embarassment for him to lose here.

[padcrasher]

I love the RCP poll average.

Sanrene turned me on to it when he was out trying to keep his right wingers spirits up. Poor little guy. I could tell that McCain spike on the graph meant the World to him.

As you can see now Obama has matched his highest leads yet.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama