How good 2010 looks for Democratic Senate races (Al Franken, voters, security)

[golfgod]

2008 was good, and getting better with Franken likely on his way, but 2010 is looking even better. Of the Democratic Senators whose terms are up in 2010, 2 are already gone, Obama (IL) and Salazar (CO), barring any big problems, and depending on how state law deals with replacements, those seats should stay blue. OTOH the Republicans (at least those who can look ahead) don't see a lot of good news on the horizon.

Let's take a look:

AZ: John McCain can probably keep this seat until he's been dead for 3 years, and lost his likely Democratic challenger when Napolitano moved up to Homeland Security. He's been looking pretty bipartisan this week and he and Obama seem to really like each other, campaign rhetoric aside.

AL: Shelby. No spring chicken, a couple of strong Ds coming up through the ranks.

FL: Martinez. IIRC he already said he's leaving after his current term. Generally polls as one of the worst Senators. I guess Jeb Bush could run but he seems to really like making big $$.

IA: Grassley. Already said he's out after this term, could still become Sec-Def when Gates leaves. The state is trending blue.

KS: Brownback. Already said he's going. Governor Kathleen Sebellious (sp?) could mount a pretty strong campaign, already shown she can win statewide.

KY: Bunning. Even the brain dead realize that his senility is pretty pronounced. I have another thread on him so won't repeat it all here. Goodbye Rs!

LA: Vitter. Trying to make a name for himself in the hope that voters will forget about the hookers. The state Democratic party, once reeling is rebounding and feeling its oats.

MO: Bond. Detected the sea change and following McCain on bipartisanship. Knows the Dems are targetting him, hard!

NH: Gregg. The only R left in state office is Judd Gregg. He's been very available on talk shows lately but I doubt he can hold his seat.

NC: Burr. The last person to hold this seat for more than one term was SAM ERVIN! I'm pretty sure Burr won't follow Dole's lead on how to run a campaign.

OH: Voinovich. Now that they're running honest elections I don't think the Rs can hold this seat. A couple of Reps have statewide name recognition.

OK: Coburn. Despite some of his wacky views he's really a pretty solid Senate performer. In any other state but OK he'd probably be looking over his shoulder, but not here.

PA: Spector. Great guy, not afraid to go against his party, defines the term "honest politician". But, he's 80 years old, his cancer is resurgent, and so are the state's Dems.

The only thing that can help the Republicans in 2010 is the fact that it's not a Presidential election year. The only way the Democrats see 60 seats in 2010 is IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR. When the Ds are holding a 65/35 majority Lmibaugh's head will explode.

golfgod

[Mike from back east]

Great listing. Lots of targets for 2010, especially those retiring in 2010. Should see a net gain of several seats for the DEMS.

[arctichomesteader]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch, as the saying goes...

[Mamama Mia]

I would hope that the good people of my state will elect Republican Mark Kirk when Roland Burris' two years are over.

[th3vault]

HAHAHA....you Dems really think you'll get all those seats?

The only reason y'all won so big in 06 and 08 was anger over Bush.

Guess what? There's no Bush to blame in 2010...... you'll have to run campaigns for a change instead of simply blasting Bush enough to win the election..

[RangerDuke08]

No bull no bias. Assuming Al Franken has won, the DNC should be able to pick up at least 1 seat in 2010 most likely from that of FL or MO to gain the fillibuster proof senate, maybe both. 6 seats as you project? I hope you don't bet your house on it.

[Mister Mappy]

Originally Posted by Mamama Mia

I would hope that the good people of my state will elect Republican Mark Kirk when Roland Burris' two years are over.

Hmmm, if Mamama Mia hopes it, then I may write in Mickey Mouse, if it's between Kirk & Burris. I'd probably do that anyway. Actually, If there's a Green candidate, he/she would probably get my vote in that situation.

Illinois could be a problem, since Burris is considered a Blagojevich hack. Because of social issues, I don't like to vote Republican, even though Kirk seems more moderate than our last Republican senator, do-nothing Fitzgerald was.

Burris is pretty stubborn, so I think he'll run even without the Dems backing. So, the best case scenario is if another Dem challenges Burris in the primary & wins. I'd like to see Tammy Duckworth as Illinois' next senator.

[padcrasher]

The big 3 likely Dem wins are MO, FL, and OH.

In the mean time nothing gets better for the GOP. Their base gets more elderly and less diverse. Evangelical youth are less strident.

And they have kooks for leaders. Coryn (stupid as the come) Palin ( enough said) this Indian fellow from Lousianna ( claims to have performed an exorcism) Vitter ( loves whores) McConnell ( barely survived his own election)

[th3vault]

FL.... not likely. All 3 branches of the state gov't are Republican controlled and Florida went blue for Obama, not for the Democratic party. FL already has a Dem senator, I doubt a second one will be sent. Crist, the governor, is as popular in the state as Obama is..... so whoever he endorses will get a huge boost. Florida also has rather conservative minority groups (Cubans) instead of the more liberal Mexicans in other parts of the country that vote Democratic.

Don't forget that the Dem majority leader is also not guaranteed of being sent back in 2010.....

[southernnaturelover]

Dems won't be able to depend on the large black turnout in '10 like they did last year. Just look at Saxby Chambliss, he picked up ten points in the second vote. I think there's a good chance Kay Hagan could be a one term Senator.