[Corrie22]

They can't even make a prediction 4-5 days out...

...but these are the same a$$wipes that know a storm out in the middle of the ocean is 1 mph faster...and they can name it a hurricane

they are a joke.....

4-5 days from now..this storm is supposed to hit....and they are calling it everything from a major hurricane...to poof a nothing and disappears

do we do nothing?....is it balls to the walls and start boarding up?...we've only got 4 days

WTNT43 KNHC 200901
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

There has been little change in the organization of Tropical
Depression Thirteen during the past several hours. An area of
ragged but persistent convection continues near the estimated
center position, and there is some outer banding in the southern
semicircle. Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have
changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity
remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. The subtropical
ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to build westward to
the north of the Greater Antilles during the next several days, and
this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through
the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good
agreement with this scenario, but there remains a spread between
the GFS/UKMET on the south side of the guidance and the
Canadian/HMON on the north side. Overall, the envelope has shifted
a little to the south since the previous advisory and the new
forecast track, which lies just to the north of the consensus
models, is also nudged southward. The new track calls for the
cyclone to pass near the Leeward Islands in 36-48 h, near or north
of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 48-60 h, and then near or
over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas by 72 h.

Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for
strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to
moderate shear during forecast period. However, the guidance
responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions. The
HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane
by 120 h. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system
degenerating into an open wave by 120 h. The UKMET and Canadian
models are between these extremes. The weak GFS solution appears
to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility
as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the
cyclone. Between these factors and the possibility of land
interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

... they can name it a hurricane

they are ...

... reflecting their desire to project their notions of their own self-importance with all this naming.

Having said that, I do not think the service is useless: once warned after consulting the site and reading the discussion (some of which is, admittedly, over my head), I do consult other sources of information on the web for greater detail on current situation and forecasts.

In any case, I am prepared well in advance for any power outages and need for bunker-type shelter.

All the best!

[Corrie22]

calling it everything from gone to a major hurricane....4 days out....is totally frigging worthless
...not being able to predict....4 days out.....is totally frigging worthless

11 o'clock update.....hurricane in 96 hours....track has moved a bare tad north

[DanielAvery]

I just wish the weather-people on my local news would relax a bit and get some perspective. If it is not going to come anywhere near where we are, why even mention it? I have a local weatherman who feels the need to spend three or more minutes of his five-minute segment giving us every minute detail of some storm that even he has to admit (in passing) won't affect our weather whatsoever. Local news is supposed to focus on local events, not a storm heading for open ocean 3000 miles away.

I guess the hurricane center is catering to these fear-mongering weather-people, giving them more "updates" so they can key up the "woosh" graphics with bright red lettering and ominous music. "The hurricane center" says you should be worried! I mean, a palm tree frond fell to the ground in the parking lot---let's re-play that footage every two minutes for the next hour!

[k350]

Not worthless at all, while they do not get it down to the exact mile where it will hit, they do accurately predict the general area.

What I do not like, and this is for all weather people reporting, is when they talk winds, they always refer to the extreme winds right near the center, and make it seem the entire hurricane has such winds, disingenuous in my opinion.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by k350

Not worthless at all, while they do not get it down to the exact mile where it will hit, they do accurately predict the general area. .

no they do not...they change their prediction every few hours as the storm gets closer
...everything from do nothing....to balls to the walls

The NHC had everyone in Florida jumping from one side to the other with Irma...Andrew was supposed to hit Palm Beach and north

3 days out...NHC had Irma hitting Miami and north...that means do nothing in the Keys

their prediction has nothing to do with "general area" right now....they couldn't predict a nothing or a major hurricane 4 days out

[k350]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

no they do not...they change their prediction every few hours as the storm gets closer
...everything from do nothing....to balls to the walls

The NHC had everyone in Florida jumping from one side to the other with Irma...Andrew was supposed to hit Palm Beach and north

3 days out...NHC had Irma hitting Miami and north...that means do nothing in the Keys

their prediction has nothing to do with "general area" right now....they couldn't predict a nothing or a major hurricane 4 days out

I consider S. FL a general area. If a hurricane is coming, whether they say PB or the Keys, I am still taking the same action.

Being incorrect about the general area would mean they said it was suppose to hit Miami, but hit Jacksonville instead.

If you are sitting in Miami, and a hurricane is coming, whether they say Miami, PB, or the Keys, you should act as if it will come to you anyway, common sense.

[Arcenal813]

As an engineer, I oft times wish I had studied meteorology instead -- seems like it's mainly guesswork under the guise of scientific "studies."

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by k350

I consider S. FL a general area. If a hurricane is coming, whether they say PB or the Keys, I am still taking the same action.

Being incorrect about the general area would mean they said it was suppose to hit Miami, but hit Jacksonville instead.

If you are sitting in Miami, and a hurricane is coming, whether they say Miami, PB, or the Keys, you should act as if it will come to you anyway, common sense.

look before you type....

...the cone of death is the entire state of Florida including Cuba....they don't have a clue

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents

[atler8]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

calling it everything from gone to a major hurricane....4 days out....is totally frigging worthless
...not being able to predict....4 days out.....is totally frigging worthless

11 o'clock update.....hurricane in 96 hours....track has moved a bare tad north

Surely by this point in your life you should understand that our weather, and especially any kind of storm, does not perform in an exact, wholly-predictable manner as do things that are in the realm of the more exact sciences, i.e. for instance the wholly predictable chemical reactions that result when various compounds are introduced to each other.
I fully understand your frustration at being left hanging in the balance but we are not yet, and we may never be, at a point where we can say with absolute certainty how a storm may manifest itself.