Growth in Larimer County since 2018 (Fort Collins, Loveland: extended stay, renting, condos)

[RosieSD]

It is very clear from the data that Larimer County has indeed grown a lot since 1980 -- must be shocking to people who've lived here since 1980. The fastest years for growth (percentage wise) seemed to have been in the 1980s.

But what about recently -- is Larimer County's population still "exploding" as some suggest?

I was curious to see data on this, so I went to the Colorado State Demographer's website (hat tip to NWCrow) to get factual data.

Data for 2022 is not yet available, so I looked at data from 2018 to 2021. Here are the results. If anyone wants to spend some time, you can also look at all years from 1980 on, to get a sense of when Larimer County grew the fastest. (Source: https://demography.dola.colorado.gov...html/muni.html)

Population change in Larimer County 2018 - 2021:

2018: 350661
2019: 356800
2020: 359815
2021: 362771

362771-350661=12110 more people in Larimer County since 2018

Data for 2022 is not yet available. If I spot an update, I'll post here.

Some data for various cities and areas in Larimer County from 2018 to 2021:

Fort Collins population change
2018: 166382
2019: 168275
2020: 170058
2021: 170755

170755-166382= 4373 more people in Fort Collins since 2018


Loveland population change

2018: 75322
2019: 76054
2020: 76341
2021: 77016

77016 - 75322= 1694 more people in Loveland since 2018

Larimer Unicorportated population change

2018 69515
2019 68663
2020 66805
2021 66666

69515-66666=2849 less people in unincorporated areas of Larimer since 2018

Berthould population change

2018: 8101
2019: 9409
2020: 10248
2021: 10801

10801- 8101= 2700 more people in Berthould since 2018

Estes Park population change

2018: 6412
2019: 6208
2020: 5884
2021: 5902

6412-5902=2700 less people in Estes Park since 2018

Tinmath areas within the County:

2018: 4433
2019: 5637
2020: 6740
2021: 7173

7173-4433=2740 more people in Tinmath (Larimer) since 2018


Wellington population change

2018: 10203
2019: 10639
2020: 11139
2021: 11437

11437-10203=1234 more people in Wellington since 2018

Windsor, areas located in Larimer:

2018: 6259
2019: 7488
2020: 7841
2021: 8126

8126-6250=1876 more people in Windsor (Larimer County area) since 2018

[RosieSD]

Some more interesting data from Colorado's State Demography office on Larimer's projected future growth.

The office forecasts that between 2021 and 2030, if population growth trends continue, the population of Larimer County will grow from 362,773 to 406,645. That's an increase in population of 43,872 people over nine years.

The population of Larimer County will also keep getting older (just like the rest of America) over this time period, according to the State's Demographer.

Population By Age

2021 (actual) 2030 (Forecast)

0 to 17 68,535 67,871
18 to 24 43,667 47,260
25 to 44 95,453 102,838
45 to 64 92,342 105,236
65 + 62,776 83,440

(Sorry for the messy formatting -- couldn't get City Data system to put it into properly spaced columns!)

Between 2020 and 2021, the number of births in Larimer County fell 2.17%. The number of deaths grew 10%. Of course, this time period covers the height of the Covid pandemic, so it definitely could be a factor in both numbers. But, it occurs to me that the reason population growth has fallen in unincorporated areas and Estes Park during this time period may be because the population in those areas is aging, and aging = closer to dying. Just a guess though.

In terms of jobs, the Demography office has data on how many jobs were/will be in individual counties from 1990 to 2050.

I'm not going to cite all of the data for each years, but here are a few selected data points -- the forecasted numbers may be useful for those thinking about relocating.

Number of jobs in Larimer County

1990 - 92,772 jobs

2000 - 154,796 jobs

2010 - 165,022 jobs

2020 - 204,007 jobs

2025 (FORECASTED) 230,710

2030 (FORECASTED) 248,062

2040 (FORECASTED) 275,818

2050 (FORECASTED) 297,469




Again, if you're interested in more data, including about other counties in Colorado, check out the State's Demography office website (link in first post above) It's a wonderful resource for learning about different parts of Colorado! Thanks again to NWCrow for pointing me to it.

[Mike from back east]

Possible that homes in Estes Park were bought up by investors who don't live and may not be counted as residents, but I'm not sure how such ownership is counted regarding census data. I can understand long time residents finally getting fed up with the tourist hordes and selling out to investors.

[StealthRabbit]

Having grown up and still know many in EP, speculation and dreams fuel RE valuations in resort areas, and there is enough new visitors to keep those dreams and higher than sustainable RE valuations alive. Most residents and property owners are not earning a living there, so RE valuations don't have to pencil out.

NoCO in general is quite richly priced for the wage workforce of local employment opportunities. (I note my first home,
$16k, built in 1921, 640sf... Is now listed FS at $334k). I expect NoCO to be in the overpriced housing range, and new growth will depend on the economy, and what premium new residents are willing to pay. Since the average age of residents is increasing, those buyers are willing to spend, because they don't have the time to wait. Thus extremely fast growth will probably plateau until wages get closer to home affordability. Expect the most decline in the 'me too' subdivisions of rural sprawl, but strong demand in existing desirable, fully developed, mature homes. Population might decline, and wealth per household grow. That can be a good thing for a community, as seniors consume high dollar services, but don't need expensive public infrastructure like schools and wider, faster city streets. Correctly planning the cities to meet the aging demographics of residents, will attract more residents who spend well on homes, services, healthcare, restaurants, and gifting. Get it right, and the economy and cities could rest in a very sweet spot. They better build more pickleball courts!

[RosieSD]

Good posts, Mike and Stealth.

StealthRabbit, you're spot on (as usual) about what we've seen in the Larimer County RE market. We'd pretty much need to spend what we could sell our house in CA for to get a close replacement in terms of size, quality and land in Larimer County.

We're now leaning towards a part time place that we could possibly move to full time when we're ready to downsize, so we've started looking at townhomes in Fort Collins, and are not finding any bargains, unless one is willing to live in a junky 1970s complex. We're here in Fort Collins now and just looked at a very nice soon to be built "townhome" complex out near Richards Lake aimed at "seniors" where the starting list price is $780,000!

[StealthRabbit]

Originally Posted by RosieSD

Good posts, Mike and Stealth.

StealthRabbit, you're spot on (as usual) about what we've seen in the Larimer County RE market. We'd pretty much need to spend what we could sell our house in CA for to get a close replacement in terms of size, quality and land in Larimer County.

We're now leaning towards a part time place that we could possibly move to full time when we're ready to downsize, so we've started looking at townhomes in Fort Collins, and are not finding any bargains, unless one is willing to live in a junky 1970s complex. We're here in Fort Collins now and just looked at a very nice soon to be built "townhome" complex out near Richards Lake aimed at "seniors" where the starting list price is $780,000!

Our friends who live on Hogan Dr (nice older subdivision off Harmony), Bought a few Condos nearby about 15 yrs ago and all are now paid off. (For their 'downsizing years').

I'd probably find a place near bike greenbelt, but would probably look in west Loveland near Big T River (Old hospital is now a senior CCRC residence with nice Mtn views).https://www.mbkseniorliving.com/seni...medium=organic There are a few duplexes near there which I was looking at. DS wants one of the duplexes across from Benson Sculpture Park. I miss daily swimming at TVHS for $0.75, I swim about a mile / day, being a bike ride from any of the (3) pools would be a plus for me)

There are also some "Eden Alternative' type places being built in Loveland. (I am not keen on the FAST traffic in FtC). We're too young for a CCRC typ, but there are also some senior coops in NoCo. Cousin in CoS just bought one. These are attractive to me, because they would be easy to leave for 6 months / yr and not have to worry about a thing.

As a retiree, I LOVE my views, now that I can stay home and enjoy the views. We just spent a week in Tucson with retired friends from Loveland. They are in a Del Webb (Oro Valley)with fabulous views and lots of wildlife. We really like to visit them often!

Good luck in your search. Several of our Loveland friends have sold at peak and headed to eastern CO and western NE for low cost housing (that comes at a price!!!) I drove those winter roads for decades, no thanks.

[RosieSD]

Thanks for the ideas, StealthRabbit. We love where we live now (and yes, we have outstanding views - and no close neighbors plus solar power and a well that allows us to be nearly self-sufficient).

That's why we don't see ourselves living in Larimer County (or Colorado) full time. But, we would like something small and lock and leave so we can continue to visit our daughter and new grandson for extended stays.

The house we've been renting for our month long stays the last three years will no longer be available after this stay, which is a shame, as it's perfect for what we need and we've worked out a deal with the current owner that is very reasonably priced, since she knows us. Oh well, I guess we'll just be on the lookout for another place in the meantime.

(If you happen to know of anyone interested in renting a house for three to four months every year, shoot me a DM.)