Miami real estate continues to PLUMMET, another reason why not to buy till 2010 (Pembroke Pines: foreclose, renters)

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by MisterNY

I still think we have a way to go (down) with these prices....2009, too soon to say. I have a friend that works for a firm that processes foreclosures, and there is plenty of overtime for the workers...That's a good indicator (or bad, depending on how you look at things)..These prices have some way to go imho. At these prices, many units are still out of many people's reach. Those who got greedy, hiking these house prices are paying for it dearly. I'm so blessed for my situation...Buying here? I would not..Not now anyways..Rent for now, or if you were the sensible minority who bought at the right time, and did not suck the fat out of your house (equity) for stupid expenses like expensive cars that you could not afford or qualify for, you should be ok, and count your blessings. Let things work themselves out.

not to put a definitive time frame on all this but, the last time this happened it took close to 7 yrs for things to get back on track. This time I think is going to be a real drag, seeing as how we are heading into a absurd economic situation (things are just getting started). I read one report that puts unemployment within another year at or around 11%. I hope that is wrong but I fear it isn't. If that happens, any hope of this rebounding in a year is a pipe dream.

[triplenet]

Guys - There are already reports of housing prices stabilizing in certain areas and most economist forecast a 2009 recovery...

Before the end of 2009 you will hear that forclosures have declined, the stock market has rebounded and we are "slowing" moving forward...

But who knows

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by triplenet

Guys - There are already reports of housing prices stabilizing in certain areas and most economist forecast a 2009 recovery...

Before the end of 2009 you will hear that forclosures have declined, the stock market has rebounded and we are "slowing" moving forward...

But who knows

Well the foreclosure thing is impossible seeing as how Alt A loans will be resetting from now through to 2011/2012. This whole foreclosure mess is not just a sub prime issue. Sub prime was just the entree and the Alt A near prime and prime loans are the main course. Those near prime and prime Alt A loans start resetting this fall (next month) on through to 2011. It takes 3 to 7 years from the origination of these loans for them to reset. We must remember, it is the reset that triggers the foreclosures. By this I mean, the payments reset higher to the point where people can no longer afford to pay.

As for economist putting a year date on things, I am not so sure about that. By definition, my degree (international economics) makes me a economist (academically). These "economist" you mention are many of the same people who said oh the drop will only be 5%. Then they said oh only another 10% and so on and so on and time and time again they were wrong. You have to remember, a lot of these economist have ulterior motives. It would serve you better to understand exactly what happened in this run up. How it happened. Historically what home prices are supposed to be and how to calculate that price. Then you will be able to know when the bottom has been reached. Setting a date and time is impossible and many times economist are 100% wrong on their timing. I think the only ones of recent who have been spot on with virtually everything that has been happening is Nourel Roubini, Eric Jenzsen, and Peter Schiff

As for home prices stabilizing in some areas, that is true for areas where the run up was not drastic. However, the run up in south florida was one of the worst in the country along with Nevada, Seattle, California and NYC. So it is going to take a lot longer for those areas to bottom out. The bottom is based on sellers willingness to bring prices down to where they are supposed to be. That is a psychological aspect of all of this which no one can really predict accuratly.

There was a survey done out in Cali a few months back. People were asked about the value they felt their homes are worth. Most thought their homes were still worth peak prices. It just goes to show you, people are ignorant as sin and it is going to take a long time and a multitude of hardship to beset these people before they fall back to reality.

[florida_guy1234]

I promise that I'm not swimming in some twisted sense of schadenfreude here, but I really do find it hard to get upset about the situation with home prices. For people like me, who are still in school and who will be buying homes in South Florida within the next 10 years, this is great news. Do you feel any sympathy for the greed-ridden speculators who caused this situation in the first place? And let's face it, South Florida salaries don't exactly rival those in Boston or the Bay Area; when median home prices nearly approach $400K in a county as relatively poor as Miami-Dade, that simply means that a large (80%+) majority of residents would never be able to afford a home without the "aid" of some of the more exotic loan instruments that were floated during the boom. The same is true for the other 2 counties and, frankly, all parts of Florida that saw spectacular increases in prices. We are a low-wage state, and even a $250,000 home is out of reach for many Floridians. And I frankly don't want to see us become a state in which the only people who can realistically afford homes are the rich, the retirees, and foreign investors.

I do feel sorry, though, for the honest, hard-working, middle-class families who purchased homes near the peak of this mess and have seen much of their equity vanish. I also believe that's an area where the government should provide assistance (moral hazard? perhaps, but why do conservatives have a problem with this, but no problem with bailing out the greedy corporate SOBs who got us into this mess in the first place?)

[MisterNY]

Originally Posted by adam.g.harpool

I promise that I'm not swimming in some twisted sense of schadenfreude here, but I really do find it hard to get upset about the situation with home prices. For people like me, who are still in school and who will be buying homes in South Florida within the next 10 years, this is great news. Do you feel any sympathy for the greed-ridden speculators who caused this situation in the first place? And let's face it, South Florida salaries don't exactly rival those in Boston or the Bay Area; when median home prices nearly approach $400K in a county as relatively poor as Miami-Dade, that simply means that a large (80%+) majority of residents would never be able to afford a home without the "aid" of some of the more exotic loan instruments that were floated during the boom. The same is true for the other 2 counties and, frankly, all parts of Florida that saw spectacular increases in prices. We are a low-wage state, and even a $250,000 home is out of reach for many Floridians. And I frankly don't want to see us become a state in which the only people who can realistically afford homes are the rich, the retirees, and foreign investors.

I do feel sorry, though, for the honest, hard-working, middle-class families who purchased homes near the peak of this mess and have seen much of their equity vanish. I also believe that's an area where the government should provide assistance (moral hazard? perhaps, but why do conservatives have a problem with this, but no problem with bailing out the greedy corporate SOBs who got us into this mess in the first place?)

Very well said, Sir.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by adam.g.harpool

I promise that I'm not swimming in some twisted sense of schadenfreude here, but I really do find it hard to get upset about the situation with home prices. For people like me, who are still in school and who will be buying homes in South Florida within the next 10 years, this is great news. Do you feel any sympathy for the greed-ridden speculators who caused this situation in the first place? And let's face it, South Florida salaries don't exactly rival those in Boston or the Bay Area; when median home prices nearly approach $400K in a county as relatively poor as Miami-Dade, that simply means that a large (80%+) majority of residents would never be able to afford a home without the "aid" of some of the more exotic loan instruments that were floated during the boom. The same is true for the other 2 counties and, frankly, all parts of Florida that saw spectacular increases in prices. We are a low-wage state, and even a $250,000 home is out of reach for many Floridians. And I frankly don't want to see us become a state in which the only people who can realistically afford homes are the rich, the retirees, and foreign investors.

I do feel sorry, though, for the honest, hard-working, middle-class families who purchased homes near the peak of this mess and have seen much of their equity vanish. I also believe that's an area where the government should provide assistance (moral hazard? perhaps, but why do conservatives have a problem with this, but no problem with bailing out the greedy corporate SOBs who got us into this mess in the first place?)

I don't feel bad for them. If they would use their house for what its for and that's to live in and not as a ATM then the whole equity thing wouldn't be a problem.

[ready2move]

Originally Posted by adam.g.harpool

I do feel sorry, though, for the honest, hard-working, middle-class families who purchased homes near the peak of this mess and have seen much of their equity vanish. I also believe that's an area where the government should provide assistance (moral hazard? perhaps, but why do conservatives have a problem with this, but no problem with bailing out the greedy corporate SOBs who got us into this mess in the first place?)

The people that bought our Cooper City home in late 2006 are probably in deep du du right now. They bought the house with 100% financing at the very end of the peak. They have no equity. Taken with a grain of salt, the on line estimates show the house valued at about 100 grand less than what they paid for it.

[fauve]

^^^^ Yeah, seriously. Even someone who put 20% down in 2006, received a prime mortgage, and never touched a cent of equity, is in trouble now.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by fauve

^^^^ Yeah, seriously. Even someone who put 20% down in 2006, received a prime mortgage, and never touched a cent of equity, is in trouble now.

how are they in trouble? Because its worth less? If they bought the place to live in and not as a investment then they are good. If they tried to fancy themselves investors and didn't have the head for business, then yah thats another issue.

[MisterNY]

Originally Posted by ready2move

The people that bought our Cooper City home in late 2006 are probably in deep du du right now. They bought the house with 100% financing at the very end of the peak. They have no equity. Taken with a grain of salt, the on line estimates show the house valued at about 100 grand less than what they paid for it.

Yikes!! Seemingly, aside from investors, these types of buyers are also highly likely to abandon those properties. They put nothing down, and got nothing out of these houses (no equity whatsoever, being upside down at the moment), so many could care less if they get foreclosed on. (I count my blessings everyday, bought at the right time, got bought out at the right time as well).

I agree with Wild Style. A colleague of mine bought a 3/2/1 townhouse for $128k w/$0 down in 2001, here in Pembroke Pines (Silver Lakes to be exact). He borrowed $100k against the house, for nonsense, literally (no home repairs or upgrades, no investments, no medical emergency, not for college, has no kids etc, so really for nonsense as he regretfully stated). He wanted to sell, but feels he wont get much for the TH at the moment, after I showed him some townhouses advertised in his subdivision going for mid $200k ($225k-$250k). In 2005, they were selling for $350-$375k for the same ones. Talk about someone regretting what he did, with absolutely nothing to show for. Decisions, decisions....Dumbs ones at that.