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Do you think a mass exodus is possible or likely to happen from states like Texas, Florida, Arizona and Nevada someday?
Currently, there is a "mass exodus" from states like California and New York due to extremely high cost of living, chronic traffic, and all sort of problems associated with high population. However, I think that's a good thing. It should reduce housing costs in CA and NY, reduce traffic congestion and make those places more stabilized and better to live in.
Places like Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, Tampa, Orlando and Austin are well on track to becoming ultra expensive by 2030. Along with that will come extreme traffic congestion (which is already the case, but will only get worse). So, it seems to me that the problems with CA and NY are simply being shifted over to TX, FL and AZ and will only get worse. Moving the problems doesn't resolve the problems, ultimately.
I can imagine a situation in say 2030 where these major sunbelt metro areas are bursting at the seams, extremely expensive, congested and people looking to flee them for better pastures. Who knows, maybe, the next hotspots will be Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, etc.
It's just crazy now. Most, if not all of these sunbelt metro areas have home values that are HIGHER than the national median at this point. They are no longer cheap places to live. For example, housing in Tampa and Orlando areas are now on PAR with Connecticut (other than Fairfield County, CT)! Home values in Phoenix and Las Vegas areas are significantly higher than CT now! Dallas is now on par with CT, too! Where's the big COL advantage of living in the major sunbelt metros now???
I think the solution is for people to STOP HAVING BABIES!! Lol.
This past 1-2 weeks of anomalous weather notwithstanding, areas up north simply can't compete with the combination of decent weather, low cost of doing business, relative lack of legacy costs and low COL.
Even if the bigger cities get expensive and overcrowded, newer cities will be discovered (I.E. Birmingham, OKC, Memphis, Jackson, Little Rock, Tulsa, etc.) and they will start seeing a ton of growth. That's what happened with places like Charlotte and Nashville when Atlanta, Dallas and Houston got too expensive/crowded for some and this will be repeated in other places going forward.
This past 1-2 weeks of anomalous weather notwithstanding, areas up north simply can't compete with the combination of decent weather, low cost of doing business and low COL.
Even if the bigger cities get expensive and overcrowded, newer cities will be discovered (I.E. Birmingham, OKC, Jackson, Little Rock, Tulsa, etc.) and they will start seeing a ton of growth. That's what happened with places like Charlotte and Nashville when Atlanta, Dallas and Houston got too expensive/crowded for some and this will be repeated in other places going forward.
Of course the places up north can't compete on weather. But at this point, the COL advantage in the sunbelt is pretty much gone. Home values in Arizona and Nevada are now higher than Connecticut, for example. Florida is close behind. And the wages in these sunbelt states tend to be lower than they are up north. Horrible. Any tax differences are minor and not likely to have a major impact for most people.
More habitable land in Texas and Florida with less restrictive building onus will probably help curtail the issue somewhat. I do however question the water situation with building in the desert long term, so I’m less sure about the other two places. But yes, in the far future there could be further flight to cheaper places probably in the Sunbelt. But we are decades (if ever) out before eyes turn towards Mississippi turning into the next Florida. As for the Thomas Malthus closing, meh.
Not really. Warm weather will always be a priority for a lot of people.
That said, these states will have headwinds, and seem likely to at least slow down if not stagnate on average in the coming decades.
Climate change is the obvious largest reason. The weather will turn uncomfortable in some places. The "comfort belt" might move north a bit, contributing to a "half back" trend.
Related to that, the "push" factor of cold in northern cities might diminish.
Second, infrastructure tends to be an issue as places (a) grow and (b) age. It's a limiting factor and also needs expensive renewal. (Edit: good point about growth shifting to other southern cities, but they face the age factor already.)
Third, these cities are built on air conditioning and near-universal car use, which depend on very high energy use. If energy gets expensive or difficult, that would be another hurdle. (I don't predict this, as sustainable sources are gaining steam.)
Its is a huge misconception to compare places like Atlanta and Houston to LA and NYC when were talking about what cost of living could be. They will NEVER get close to that cost of living. The geographical constraints simply do not exist here outside of South Florida.
If people flee the sunbelt it will be because the economies dried up or global warm accelerated beyond what we thought it could become.
We also have to be honest: more people prefer hot weather to cold weather than the other way around. If people flee the sunbelt majors, it wont be to the Midwest or Northeast. It would be to other less crowded parts of the sunbelt.
Its is a huge misconception to compare places like Atlanta and Houston to LA and NYC when were talking about what cost of living could be. They will NEVER get close to that cost of living.
If people flee the sunbelt it will be because the economies dried up or global warm accelerated beyond what we thought it could become.
We also have to be honest: more people prefer hot weather to cold weather than the other way around. If people flee the sunbelt majors, it wont be to the Midwest or Northeast. It would be to other less crowded parts of the sunbelt.
Well yeah, that's why I suggested that any migration would likely occur within the sunbelt itself. For example, the next areas to be discovered will probably be within Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas.
Of course the places up north can't compete on weather. But at this point, the COL advantage in the sunbelt is pretty much gone. Home values in Arizona and Nevada are now higher than Connecticut, for example. Florida is close behind. And the wages in these sunbelt states tend to be lower than they are up north. Horrible. Any tax differences are minor and not likely to have a major impact for most people.
The bolded is true if you're comparing the big cities in the south with the big cities in the Midwest (excluding Chicago).
But I'd still say the small/mid-size cities have a solid COL advantage.
Not really. Warm weather will always be a priority for a lot of people.
That said, these states will have headwinds, and seem likely to at least slow down if not stagnate on average in the coming decades.
Climate change is the obvious largest reason. The weather will turn uncomfortable in some places. The "comfort belt" might move north a bit, contributing to a "half back" trend.
Related to that, the "push" factor of cold in northern cities might diminish
Second, infrastructure tends to be an issue as places (a) grow and (b) age. It's a limiting factor and also needs expensive renewal. (Edit: good point about growth shifting to other southern cities, but they face the age factor already.)
Third, these cities are built on air conditioning and near-universal car use, which depend on very high energy use. If energy gets expensive or difficult, that would be another hurdle. (I don't predict this, as sustainable sources are gaining steam.)
One thing southern cities/states generally don't have to worry about are the cost of pensions/union benefits, since much of their growth took place as that stuff was being dismantled.
Places like Michigan, Illinois, and New York are going to be heavily burdened by that (it's what bankrupted Detroit, is causing the financial problems in Chicago and what almost caused NYC to go bankrupt in the 1970s), on top of the cost to maintain their much older infrastructure.
For every seller their is a buyer. Folks are buying those expensive houses in California and New York, as those sellers flee to cheaper states. California and NY will not get cheaper by any means. Idaho has tripled in 5 years. we have million dollar homes in this valley now. Welcome to the great reset where rich will get richer and the poor, well we all know what poor folks get....
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