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1. Falling birthrates - "To keep up their lofty standard of living, citizens need new workers to serve them, whether as neurosurgeons in hospitals or as manicurists. This requires immigrants. But immigrants can splinter the dominant culture."
2. Globalized trade -"South Koreans, who believe in trade, are 17 times richer, live 10 years longer, and stand several inches taller than their (Northern) neighbors...But there’s a downside to trade. It shakes the customs and character of the nation.
3. Rising debt loads - "Why do we borrow more? Because we can! And because today’s politicians aren't held responsible for the debts they leave for our children and grandchildren."
4. Eroding work ethic - "We are seeing a structural shift: Millions have decided they just don’t care much for the idea of showing up for work in the morning and staying on the job until the end of the day."
5. The challenge of patriotism in a multicultural country - "Unless rich nations discover and embrace their national characters, they won't survive. In many schools, the Pledge of Allegiance and “My Country ‘Tis of Thee” have been pushed aside in favor of by self-esteem chants."
He mentions the Hapsburg, Ottoman, Roman Empires, etc. as example where these trends had their way. And he is not overly optimistic summing it up:
"Should the U.S. and European nations simply hold a “going out of business sale” while the wealthiest individuals sneak off to private islands or to New Zealand?"
History never exactly repeats itself. But countries don't last forever, either.
There is no question, IMHO, we are on the decline.
But one thing not on his list, but is a definitive barometer of a failing nation, is morality. The morality of this nation has been in a total free fall for the past 15 to 20 years- and there's no sign that it will let up.
3. Rising debt loads - "Why do we borrow more? Because we can! And because today’s politicians aren't held responsible for the debts they leave for our children and grandchildren."
4. Eroding work ethic - "We are seeing a structural shift: Millions have decided they just don’t care much for the idea of showing up for work in the morning and staying on the job until the end of the day."
I'd say these are 2 very big factors. If we are running up foreign debt then we can become slaves to that debt. If we aren't willing to work very hard, and continue with the currently lap of luxury lifestyle,then we will keep running up debt which will eventually choke us out.
I'd think that most people in America can readily admit to a certain amount of loathing when considering the current state of our political prowess as it relates to trade, foreign policy, education, economics, and most of what passes for our remedial solutions to these aspects of American life. I don't see many of these "factors" stated in the OP as a particular threat to the American empire, but I do see a possible Achilles heel in the fact of our inability to have an all inclusive economy. We now have more people living in that space of permanent economic marginalization than ever before, and millions more coming to that dead end life.
The demise of most empires of the past included a very steep rise in class hierarchy's, America was one of those places that defied the norm and offered quite a spread of prosperity to all comers. The trouble was that it didn't last all that long, prosperity became a more difficult thing to pursue, and more fell by the wayside, some even worse off than they were before coming here. We enjoyed a resurgence of prosperity due to the second world war and America again became a magnet for the world's poor, creating a post war affluence, and finally a glut of people chasing too few opportunities.
My guess is that no amount of patriotism, falling birthrates, etc, will ever change the face of America. Poverty and social unrest however are the real enemies we should fear. Reading through the various posts here on CD that are relative to our worst social problems opens the eyes to a view of America as a place that has changed, it's now popular to have a mindset that openly denigrates the victims of a failed economy, not to mention the fact of a huge and growing underclass who are being ignored by those who see poverty as a kind of just reward for their perceived lack of resourcefulness. If anything will drag us down it will be in that vein, most failed states ended their reign with a huge social divide and there is no evidence we will be any different in that respect.
I'd say these are 2 very big factors. If we are running up foreign debt then we can become slaves to that debt. If we aren't willing to work very hard, and continue with the currently lap of luxury lifestyle,then we will keep running up debt which will eventually choke us out.
Americans work longer hours and get less vacation time than basically every industrialized country. We're overworking not underworking. European-style vacation time would be a huge boost to worker productivity as people would actually have time to recharge, travel and relax.
1. Falling birthrates - "To keep up their lofty standard of living, citizens need new workers to serve them, whether as neurosurgeons in hospitals or as manicurists. This requires immigrants. But immigrants can splinter the dominant culture." Automation has and will continue to reduce the number of needed employees to perform the same work. A smart idea would be to reduce tuition for university bound students so we can ensure a better educated populace, but as it stands, education is stuck in a quasi non-proft/for-profit grey area. Alternatively, enacting family friendly policies would encourage a higher birthrate but as it stands, the US remains an extremely hostile nation for young families and the native birthrate will (and should) continue to go into freefall
2. Globalized trade -"South Koreans, who believe in trade, are 17 times richer, live 10 years longer, and stand several inches taller than their (Northern) neighbors...But there’s a downside to trade. It shakes the customs and character of the nation. We have been involved with globalized trade since day 1 of the US's existence, so that's not a problem. BTW North Korea has globalized trade but on a very limited scale, their main issue is the lack of a developed domestic free market which hinders the economy, also their main source of money, the soviet union, as been gone for a long time.
3. Rising debt loads - "Why do we borrow more? Because we can! And because today’s politicians aren't held responsible for the debts they leave for our children and grandchildren." Yep, shortsightedness and deregulating everything in the 80's gave the wealthy a bunch of money and the rest a bunch of debt.
4. Eroding work ethic - "We are seeing a structural shift: Millions have decided they just don’t care much for the idea of showing up for work in the morning and staying on the job until the end of the day." In an area of smartphones and 24/7 availability workers are burned out more than ever, and working more than ever. There is also little to no compensation for this work so can you blame people for their apathy?
5. The challenge of patriotism in a multicultural country - "Unless rich nations discover and embrace their national characters, they won't survive. In many schools, the Pledge of Allegiance and “My Country ‘Tis of Thee” have been pushed aside in favor of by self-esteem chants." The Pledge is a holdover from an era of Nationalism, and we all know how that turned out. Realistically, no one should every say the pledge of allegiance unless they are an adult applying for citizenship, and certainly not under aged kids. A better solution would be to read from the bill of rights every morning.
Americans work longer hours and get less vacation time than basically every industrialized country. We're overworking not underworking. European-style vacation time would be a huge boost to worker productivity as people would actually have time to recharge, travel and relax.
"Between 2000 and 2013, disability claims across the country surged 43%. Even though jobs have grown less dangerous, the chances of a judge approving a disability claim has jumped 50% since 1980."
He's talking about diminishing work ethic. I've noticed it too, how many people are "disabled" even though dangerous work has virtually disappeared.
Injuries that workers would have formerly despised have become a ticket for the gravy train. There's also the unending drone for paid family leave, paid this leave, paid that leave. Teachers are forever wanting more time for "training", "conferences" (cops and firemen, too), i.e., non-work. It goes on everywhere.
Interesting. Half these posts insist Americans are lazy no goods and thats why we are circling the drain and the other half insist that that is simply not true. That is the problem.
"Between 2000 and 2013, disability claims across the country surged 43%. Even though jobs have grown less dangerous, the chances of a judge approving a disability claim has jumped 50% since 1980."
He's talking about diminishing work ethic. I've noticed it too, how many people are "disabled" even though dangerous work has virtually disappeared.
Injuries that workers would have formerly despised have become a ticket for the gravy train. There's also the unending drone for paid family leave, paid this leave, paid that leave. Teachers are forever wanting more time for "training", "conferences" (cops and firemen, too), i.e., non-work. It goes on everywhere.
American physicians have provided a back door to Welfare for healthy, white Americans who cannot abide the stigma associated with conventional public assistance. American employers that have eliminated millions of jobs through outsourcing and/or automation don't get any criticism for that. Hey, more please. I've noticed the support for the Fortune 500 on City-Data. I suspect lots of investor types basing their fortunes, or their 401k's on the profits of The Market and thus a complete lack of any sympathy for the human wreckage left in the wake of the Corporate Greed Juggernaut.
There is no question, IMHO, we are on the decline.
But one thing not on his list, but is a definitive barometer of a failing nation, is morality. The morality of this nation has been in a total free fall for the past 15 to 20 years- and there's no sign that it will let up.
I'd say morality was screwed up from the beginning, and only in the last 15 to 20 years has it started to correct itself.
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