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So when the Army Navy Air Force and Marines outsources their tech and ops and personnel to non US citizens, that's when I'll wet my finger and point it in the air and say "this empire will soon fall".
It was a good run, folks.
All very interesting, but nothing in this addresses nukes and mass communications as well as modern warfare.
"1/2 of all males" could be exterminated and a couple females could push a button to launch enough nukes to vaporize a good part of the planet. There was nothing in ancient times to compare - not armour, not steel, not well built sailing ships or battlewagons. Nothing.
In the "olden days" you speak of the N. Korea deal would be solved very quickly. Israel would long ago have ceased to exist.
In many ways, the weak have an advantage today. This is why we "lost" in Vietnam and the current wars and are also scared of N. Korea. Yes, we are scared...not because they have a weak nuke or two, but because we are scared to act. If a single flea can make us itch so hard, maybe our power isn't as great as thought.
How about Pakistan? We would never invade them, even if they shielded Bin Laden (which they did). Yet we invaded Afghanistan and "lost" even there. Why? Pakistan has real nukes....that's enough to scare the Big Guys away.
In addition, as you well know, contractors from many nations have been involved in our fighting for a long time. These people fight for one reason - MONEY. Even our military had to be induced (either by force or by lowering standards and giving big bonuses) to staff up for Iraq in 2003-2006+
So, based on that, are you ready to call for The Fall?
The Roman Empire was vast and ruled about 60 million at the peak of it's power. At the time that was most of the world's population. Constant civil war and economic depredation ultimately led to it's downfall. Other world powers included Babylon, The Assyrians, and the British Empire. Today the US sits on that throne. History, however, shows that the rise and fall of these nations are tied to economics and eternal events. Even the greatest superpowers eventually succumbed and were subsequently replaced. So who will replace the United States if at all?
- Will it be China? Their economy has already surpassed the US but their financial sector is far less developed. They don't inject themselves much into non-Asian matters, often choosing "soft power". Additionally they don't have a Navy that can dominate the world's seas like the British Empire and the US.
- So what about India? Huge economy. They actually surpassed China in population but illiteracy and a malnourished labor force are detractors.
- Russia? Huge. Resource rich. Powerful military but underpopulated compared to other leading contenders (even if they absorbed the former Soviet countries).
- Brazil? Huge country strong in energy and minerals. There's no other South American power which can challenge Brazil for regional hegemony. A weak military with low human capital could make superpower status improbable though.
So who? Canada? France? Someone else?
None of these countries or any others can replace US as a superpower to the extent we are. They may think they can. You see either Russia or China sending aid everywhere in the world without expecting anything back?
You see them having the public aid package we have?
For all our faults we are a great country in the world. F we weren't why would people want to come here?
None of these countries or any others can replace US as a superpower to the extent we are. They may think they can. You see either Russia or China sending aid everywhere in the world without expecting anything back?
You see them having the public aid package we have? For all our faults we are a great country in the world. F we weren't why would people want to come here?
The Roman Empire was vast and ruled about 60 million at the peak of it's power. At the time that was most of the world's population. Constant civil war and economic depredation ultimately led to it's downfall. Other world powers included Babylon, The Assyrians, and the British Empire. Today the US sits on that throne. History, however, shows that the rise and fall of these nations are tied to economics and eternal events. Even the greatest superpowers eventually succumbed and were subsequently replaced. So who will replace the United States if at all?
- Will it be China? Their economy has already surpassed the US but their financial sector is far less developed. They don't inject themselves much into non-Asian matters, often choosing "soft power". Additionally they don't have a Navy that can dominate the world's seas like the British Empire and the US.
- So what about India? Huge economy. They actually surpassed China in population but illiteracy and a malnourished labor force are detractors.
- Russia? Huge. Resource rich. Powerful military but underpopulated compared to other leading contenders (even if they absorbed the former Soviet countries).
- Brazil? Huge country strong in energy and minerals. There's no other South American power which can challenge Brazil for regional hegemony. A weak military with low human capital could make superpower status improbable though.
So who? Canada? France? Someone else?
no one. but an alliance might: China-Russia is the most obvious possibility.
You cannot make a generalization, but there is no other country in the world with the specific combinations of:
1. Ability and willingness to WORK. In the end, economics - not military might itself - will rule.
2. Intelligence
3. Numbers
4. Location
The thing about being a "superpower" which we have already seen...is that superpowers are afraid of even the smallest country with a nuke. In fact, superpowers were afraid of N. Korea even before they had a bomb (if they even have a working one now is suspect...deliverable).
So it's the same story of losing in Iraq or Vietnam. How many TRILLIONS of dollars did one man (Bin Laden) and his small group cost us? Much more than we could afford (see our National Debt).
All those "American Allies" are looking at as differently right now and, in the end, self-preservation is their goal.
China actually has policies and does things. Meantime, the USA is largely mired in the past and cutting funds from Energy and Science and other things.
If "super power" means thousands of nukes and spending so much on security that your people are homeless, poor and doing without basics....well, then, we "win". But if it means...as I suspect it does and it will....efficiency, capability and then willingness to go above and beyond the Call of Duty militarily, then we quickly sinking.
Personally, I could case less about being a "super power" unless we are talking about health care, research, environmental improvement, increased efficiency, less waste and more happy and healthy people.
You can't take "super power" to the grocery store and buy food with it.
Note - one small example - the most valuable "hardware startup" of the last few years is a Chinese Company that makes drones - named DJI. No American company can even START to compete, let alone build even a basic working consumer model. Not even close. This technology is VERY important to most every facet of the future and yet we don't have it.
Those in the know have compared DJI to an early Apple. But it's MUCH more than that. Apple didn't invent anything comparable and, especially now, is only involved in evolution (improvement) of their stuff.
Take DJI times 100 or 1,000 or more and that is what is going on in China today.
Sure, we have Silicon Valley and the Boston area. But we don't have as many "hungry" people who are willing to establish multi-generational companies and take big risks to create stuff that doesn't exist yet.
Luckily for us, a S. African immigrant with the name Elon Musk does. Same goes with a Russian immigrant who started Google. We have some mojo....but not the numbers and not the population who are willing to work. Fewer and fewer of these smart people want to come to the US now that we have declared most of them unwelcome.
Is there anyone here who doubts that the average Chinese will work harder, longer and smarter than the average American?
Good post, except the last sentence. Are you of Chinese heritage, by any chance?
I think most immigrants of ANY ethnic/racial background tend to be very hard-working and determined. Don't you?
Too early for them. They haven't even mastered riding an escalator without injury and/or death.
I don't know when, and I hope it never happens, but whenever it does, it will most likely be China.
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