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Commence baseless speculation here about downtown and the rest of the metro area.
Just some ideas, but share what you think the MSA will be like, even if your ideas are completely unfounded:
Traffic?
Demographics?
Political climate shifts?
Crime?
Schools?
Major neighborhood shifts for the better and worse?
What will be the condition of the economy / business climate compared to today?
How far will the downtown urban core spread?
How far will suburban sprawl spread?
Will it retain its uniqueness?
What will be new "hot spots" for growth?
Will we ever see skyscrapers?
Just how much will the city/area grow? Will we be considered a metropolis? (not ATL size, but "on the map" so to speak)
Will the overall metro focus on smart growth/urbanization/infill or continue following the typical Sunbelt sprawl model?
Last edited by MetroZetro; 12-04-2016 at 03:19 PM..
Honestly not that much will probably change other than Greenville will dominate even more than it already does and thats where the bulk of the population growth will go. Will still be under 2 million people.
Schools will be schools and traffic will be traffic. Will always be a conservative area, but should grow a bit more racially diverse.
Skyscrapers, sprawl, the core, hot spots, etc will all depend on the market. What IS likely is GSP will likely start to grow more dense. You should see these pockets between Anderson and Greenville and Greenville and Spartanburg start to fill in more.
Just my prediction. 20 years is far away make anything certain.
I think you'll see the continued revitalization of older areas and what's decent now, but on the edge, will become the newer revitalization projects in 20 years.
Think about the ballparks. Where Fluor Field is now and the former G-Braves stadium. Verdae is going to look significantly different.
I'd say the next big areas that need some investment and will probably get it are the southern end of things. The area down by Augusta and 291 and points south. Something needs to be done with lots of places down there. Starting with the property of the former Holiday Inn.
Politically, Greenville will not change much. As a metro, it will continue to grow at its current modest pace.......nothing close to dominating. Population wise, it should be in the 1.3MM range, nowhere close to 2MM.
The challenge for the upstate is to find the next BMW. BMW is building a plant in Mexico which may mean growth in Spartanburg will slow.
Another challenge is to attract talent....for the most part, college grads pass over Greenville and go to Atlanta, Charlotte, Charleston and to a degree Columbia. Greenville has become too dependent on retirees to help drive growth.
20 years is a long time.....a lot can change the growth curve positively and negatively.
Politically, Greenville will not change much. As a metro, it will continue to grow at its current modest pace.......nothing close to dominating. Population wise, it should be in the 1.3MM range, nowhere close to 2MM.
I think Jandrew5 was speaking of Greenville dominating the Upstate more in 20 years. And GSP (guess it should really be GSA) is already past 1.3 million; the entire Upstate CSA is in view here. In 2036, it will probably all be a singular MSA once again anyway. If some extra counties get added, it could very well be close to 2M people.
This thread will require thought for me over time. My initial thoughts will be on Greenville County.
I would expect Travelers Rest to exponentially increase in population to be on par with Greer, Mauldin and Simpsonville. Its annexation of Furman University in 2013 is the first step toward more annexation, and increase of population in its municipality.
The Moonville and Piedmont communities grow with residential, commercial and industrial development at a faster rate. These communities form the last major area of Greenville County to take off in growth. I would hope Interstate 185's extension in 2001 would help spur development. Fifteen years later, nothing has progressed.
Greenville County Schools will continue to increase in student population and will see increased competition from charter, private, and home schools.
Politically, Greenville will not change much. As a metro, it will continue to grow at its current modest pace.......nothing close to dominating. Population wise, it should be in the 1.3MM range, nowhere close to 2MM.
The challenge for the upstate is to find the next BMW. BMW is building a plant in Mexico which may mean growth in Spartanburg will slow.
Another challenge is to attract talent....for the most part, college grads pass over Greenville and go to Atlanta, Charlotte, Charleston and to a degree Columbia. Greenville has become too dependent on retirees to help drive growth.
20 years is a long time.....a lot can change the growth curve positively and negatively.
Right, Mutiny. Like he said, I was clearly taking about Upstate dominance. Most everyone who is moving to the Upstate is moving to Greenville. Based on current estimates, Greenville County has grown by more people since 2010 than all the other 9 Upstate counties combined. Greenville is only 795 sq miles of 6,168. That growth trend will only likely continue.
Greenville is not "dependent" on retirees, that's just nonsense. Myrtle Beach is becoming the greyest place on Earth and even they don't "depend" on retirees, they depend on tourism and hospitality. Of course Greenville is not going to have the jobs that Charlotte and Atlanta have, but the city will be well sustained for the future.
I think Jandrew5 was speaking of Greenville dominating the Upstate more in 20 years. And GSP (guess it should really be GSA) is already past 1.3 million; the entire Upstate CSA is in view here. In 2036, it will probably all be a singular MSA once again anyway. If some extra counties get added, it could very well be close to 2M people.
Metro Greenville today is around 850k give or take. Add Spartanburg County and you get to 1.150MM. Anything beyond that is pure speculation on what will or will not be added. But, adding over 800k to these numbers in 20 years in order to approach 2MM is not realistic. Greenville and Spartanburg counties are very large in terms of land and are growing towards one another, adding more counties to the metro is tough to see. But, a 2MM metro for the upstate.....no.
Greenville County's population at the time of the 2010 United States Census was 451,225. How soon could it surpass 500,000? What would Greenville County look like with 1,000,000?
Greenville County's population at the time of the 2010 United States Census was 451,225. How soon could it surpass 500,000? What would Greenville County look like with 1,000,000?
Based on the estimates, Greenville probably has already passed 500,000. If not, it's very close. The second half of your question is too hypothetical to really answer. All I can say is hopefully not how it does now.
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