if British had been victorious in Buenos Aires in 1807: independent Argentina and British Uruguay (war, influence)

[yofie]

The following is a proposed counterfactual/alternate history:

Once the British (under John Whitelocke) capture Buenos Aires in July 1807, they make the whole River Plate area (what they've captured up until then - Montevideo, Buenos Aires, etc.) a British protectorate. This would be a compromise between the policy of the previous British government (the so-called Ministry of All Talents) of conquering territory and the policy of the current British government of the time (the Portland administration, including such ministers as Castlereagh) of only economic influence in South America. In other words, it would basically be along the lines of the Ionian Islands protectorate.

This, of course, is assuming that Britain does not give back that area to the Spanish in 1808 once the French invade Spain. I think this is quite plausible because a. the Spanish Empire is quite weakened by that point, preoccupied with the war at home in Spain and b. the British see significant value (both mercantile and strategic) in the River Plate region, even though it's not quite as strategic as, say, the Cape of Good Hope.

A few years later or several years later (or perhaps even by the end of 1807), the Buenos Aires area - as well as along the western bank of the Rio de la Plata in general - becomes independent due to a. quite a strong preference on the part of the porteños for independence over Spanish or British imperial control and b. the British desire to cut down on administrative costs in South America - in favour of an informal empire - where possible. This way, Argentina (including Buenos Aires) has even more British influence than in real life, probably with a Westminster-style parliamentary system for at least several decades after that. Sort of like Cuba with American influence in the late 19th and especially early 20th centuries. It is, nonetheless, predominantly Spanish-speaking and with a Latin culture just like in real life. I'm not certain, as of yet, if that independent Argentina includes Cordoba, Cuyo, Tucuman, etc., as the capital of the Viceroyalty of La Plata moves to Cordoba after the British capture Buenos Aires, and it may just resist the advances of Buenos Aires potentially for years, even decades, and perhaps be a country of its own. I'm certain that such an Argentina does include Patagonia, though, because for a long time it was ruled from Buenos Aires in real life.

That independence of Buenos Aires does not sit well with the Banda Oriental; after all, Buenos Aires and Montevideo are rivals, and I don't think that Montevideo would like to be controlled by Buenos Aires for too long. That, together with the strategic value that Montevideo has for the British to a much greater extent than Buenos Aires - e.g. a naval base, closer to the open Atlantic, a smaller population that's easier to control, a buffer between Buenos Aires and Brazil - and together with Portuguese/Brazilian support (being natural British allies), makes Britain want to make a colony out of just the Banda Oriental (including the Misiones Orientales territory ceded to Brazil in real life in 1851 after some decades of dispute between Uruguay and Brazil). The headquarters of the British River Plate colony move to Montevideo from Buenos Aires at that point. Yes, there are plenty of threats to British (and Portuguese) interests coming from revolutionaries in the countryside like Artigas and the 33 Orientales (both of which in real life were instrumental in making possible the independence of Uruguay). But they could be pushed aside, even making a Boer-like trek to the Argentine Littoral right next door (like what Artigas did in real life in 1812 on a temporary basis); after all, they are allies with other provincial caudillos based in Entre Rios, Santa Fe, etc. Those revolutionaries could ultimate moving to Paraguay or Misiones and either set up their own republic or get integrated into an existing one such as Paraguay. The upshot for Uruguay is that as a British colony with much empty land and an environment hospitable to Europeans, it attracts a good number of British settlers. Uruguay becomes a mini-Canada of sorts, being about 75% English-speaking and 25% Spanish-speaking, and it evolves to become a First World country with a very high level of economic development and uninterrupted democracy.

I hope that all the above is quite workable. I think that it's certainly much more realistic, given the circumstances surrounding the 1806-07 invasions, than a British Argentina as a whole (Pampas, Uruguay, Littoral, Cordoba, Tucuman, Patagonia, etc.) which becomes Anglo and First World, no matter how much less sexy the former scenario outlined above is than the latter scenario. What do you think of all this?