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I think terms would have been dictated out of Berlin. With the collapse of Russia in 1917, And without the USA being involved in ANY way, I think Germany would be in the driver's seat. I don't think the CP could have "won" the war however. It would be more of a negotiated peace, with the other side saving face. Keep in mind, the Germans needed a million men in Russia in 1918. That's the problem when new lands are acquired, troops are needed for occupation.
I have no clue what these terms could have been for the Germans, but I can see for example they keeping Alsace Lorraine, but losing some if not all their overseas colonies, and keeping the Russian lands. Ottoman Empire continuing and Austria Hungary getting some Russian lands as well.
It would be an interesting result because you would have a Germany dominating continental Europe economically but Russia's European borders would be where they are now.
Last edited by jobseeker2013; 12-19-2015 at 07:22 AM..
A quote from Churchill:
"America should have minded her own business and stayed out of the World War. If you hadn’t entered the war the Allies would have made peace with Germany in the Spring of 1917. Had we made peace then there would have been no collapse in Russia followed by Communism, no breakdown in Italy followed by Fascism, and Germany would not have signed the Versailles Treaty, which has enthroned Nazism in Germany. If America had stayed out of the war, all these ‘isms’ wouldn’t today be sweeping the continent of Europe and breaking down parliamentary government – and if England had made peace early in 1917, it would have saved over one million British, French, American, and other lives.”
(of course this was hypocritical in the extreme, as Britain and France - including fat Winston himself - were lobbying very hard for the US to come to their aid).
I think there's no way that Germany would've won (Austria was barely making it and the rest of their allies did not carry much weight). Militarily, the Entente forces were roughly equal in strength to the Central Power forces, but economically Germany and Austria were at their breaking point. The naval blockade of Germany worked and the High Seas Fleet was taught a lesson at Jutland and would not be able to lift the blockade. Russia however was in the first stage of collapse in the February of 1917 - they still held the front line somewhat, but it was very obvious that the front will collapse sooner or later. Without US entering the war, there would be far more desire on part of the Entente to make peace.
However, it's also questionable if German High Command and Kaiser were accessing the situation clearly enough and would agree to some concessions. They probably would be extremely arrogant and make excessive demands, so there's no guarantee that the peace would be negotiated in the end. There were still millions of German officers and generals who in 1920s believed that they would win the war had they not been "stabbed in the back".
The main impact of the arrival of American troops was on moral. Positive for the Allies, negative for the Germans. However, the brunt of the fighting in 100 Days Offensive which broke the back of German resistance was borne by the British and French armies around Amiens and the Somme. While the American army was involved in the Meuse-Argonne area and acquitted itself admirably, the Hindenburg line was broken by the 1st and 3rd British armies at Cambrai.
From a purely military point of view, the Allies would have probably won with or without American intervention. The Germans had been bled dry, the Allied blockade was starving them of war materials and food and their CP allies - Austro-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire - were more of a liability than an asset. What American involvement meant was that the Germans could not win and that had a huge effect on moral.
The Germans were beaten before the US entered the war, they were beaten ' on the home front' the British naval blockades meant that the people in Germany were starving, not just suffering shortages but starving to death, this is the main reason why they had to throw in the towel, it is also my understanding that the change in allied tactics (using hadware ie tanks as infantry support) was starting to have an affect (so I have read anyway).
Say during WWI the U.S had not given the allies any kind of support at all, do you think the CP could have won?
No, the Central Powers could not have won World War I without U.S. entry into World War I. Indeed, as far as I know, the U.S. was not decisive in halting the Western German offensive in 1918. Rather, logistics and Hindenburg's and Ludendorff's inability to think in strategic terms caused the 1918 German offensive in the West to fail.
A quote from Churchill:
"America should have minded her own business and stayed out of the World War. If you hadn’t entered the war the Allies would have made peace with Germany in the Spring of 1917. Had we made peace then there would have been no collapse in Russia followed by Communism, no breakdown in Italy followed by Fascism, and Germany would not have signed the Versailles Treaty, which has enthroned Nazism in Germany. If America had stayed out of the war, all these ‘isms’ wouldn’t today be sweeping the continent of Europe and breaking down parliamentary government – and if England had made peace early in 1917, it would have saved over one million British, French, American, and other lives.”
(of course this was hypocritical in the extreme, as Britain and France - including fat Winston himself - were lobbying very hard for the US to come to their aid).
When exactly did Winnie write that, though?
Quote:
I think there's no way that Germany would've won (Austria was barely making it and the rest of their allies did not carry much weight). Militarily, the Entente forces were roughly equal in strength to the Central Power forces, but economically Germany and Austria were at their breaking point. The naval blockade of Germany worked and the High Seas Fleet was taught a lesson at Jutland and would not be able to lift the blockade. Russia however was in the first stage of collapse in the February of 1917 - they still held the front line somewhat, but it was very obvious that the front will collapse sooner or later. Without US entering the war, there would be far more desire on part of the Entente to make peace.
However, it's also questionable if German High Command and Kaiser were accessing the situation clearly enough and would agree to some concessions. They probably would be extremely arrogant and make excessive demands, so there's no guarantee that the peace would be negotiated in the end. There were still millions of German officers and generals who in 1920s believed that they would win the war had they not been "stabbed in the back".
Completely agreed.
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