Good Chance of Dangerous Weather Outbreak Saturday (Birmingham, Huntsville: neighborhood, tornado)

[bmrisko]

Models are looking pretty good for a dangerous situation for most of central AL through middle TN for all of Saturday. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up in case you had outdoor plans for Saturday. From the Birmingham Wx office:

THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THAT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. EXPECT OUR OLD WARM FRONT TO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE AREA IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED AIRMASS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON....EVENING...AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...THE BACKING SURFACE WINDS AND MID AND UPPER JET WILL CERTAINLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG AND LONG-LIVED. NOT TO MENTION THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THESE CELLS. THE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE THREAT GOING UNTIL IT EXITS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS IS A HIGHLY DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT LOOMS FOR SATURDAY...

If this sort of thing interests you and you want to follow the thread from a WX forum...Severe threat through Sunday - Eastern US Weather Forums - Page 18

Stay safe everyone!

[Charles]

I've been watching this for about three days. I definitely will be watching for this. It looks like the biggest risk is not in the middle of the night so hopefully no 3AM tornado sirens. I prefer my tornado sirens between lunch and dinner and not during the Laker game.

[bmrisko]

Originally Posted by Charles

I've been watching this for about three days. I definitely will be watching for this. It looks like the biggest risk is not in the middle of the night so hopefully no 3AM tornado sirens. I prefer my tornado sirens between lunch and dinner and not during the Laker game.

Agreed...I'd rather be able see what's out there.

[Elizabeth_G]

Great...I finally get a day off to clean the garage and it has to be that day. Hubby will be thrilled, lol. Oh well, as Charles said, let's hope it's not in the middle of the night. May just turn out to be a great day of doing nothing I can do that!

[tam314]

This is without a doubt something everyone needs to keep an eye on. Make sure your storm shelters (if you have one) are ready to go and be sure to go over your severe weather preparedness plan with your family. Wouldn't surprise me if the Storm Prediction Center upgraded our area to a high risk for tomorrow. Any outdoor events scheduled for tomorrow should be planned for another day.

To paraphrase a bit of this mornings forecast discussion from the Huntsville WFO... any storms that do develop tomorrow have a good chance of producing tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

Some of my coworkers at UAHuntsville took all of our equipment (MAX Radar, MIPS fleet, etc) out to Oklahoma yesterday and will be following this system as it tracks toward our area. Some will also be running the ARMOR dual-pol radar... from a research perspective, I hope there is a good data set to work with.... but those storms need to occur away from population.

[Elizabeth_G]

tam314: Getting a bit nervous here. Sounds like it is really going to be bad. My elderly mother lives alone...if you really think it's going to be serious I'm going to get her tonight. What are your thoughts?

[Charles]

We made CNN.

"The areas most likely to see tornadoes tomorrow are:

* Northwestern Louisiana

* Extreme eastern Arkansas

* Most of Tennessee, including Memphis and Nashville

* Most of Mississippi

* Most of Alabama, including Birmingham and Huntsville

* Extreme northwestern Georgia."

from


Substantial risk of severe storms Friday, Saturday – This Just In - CNN.com Blogs

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Elizabeth_G

Getting a bit nervous here. Sounds like it is really going to be bad.

When locals get nervous, I get really nervous.

[tam314]

Everything tomorrow is lining up for a prolonged outbreak of long-track supercells/tornadoes. The only thing that may get in the way is rain/clouds from tonight that lingers into tomorrow morning and early afternoon. If that happens, the boundary layer (lowest few hundred meters of our atmosphere) won't be able to destabilize as much... so storms won't be as bad. If the sun is able to come out for a good period tomorrow, that's where we start worrying.

Some models up to now have been a mixed bag trying to depict that scenario... but it's looking more likely that there will be some clearing, allowing plenty of available energy to develop. Most of the tornado/shear parameters are very high... meaning that if the storms get going, they will start to spin, and tornadoes will develop. Now the chances that a tornado hits one particular spot/house/neighborhood/etc is pretty low and that's something we just can't predict (yet, maybe one day?). But chances are good now that there will be some tornadoes tomorrow somewhere.

Some of the area forecast discussions issued by the local WFOs (Jackson, MS in particular) have been downright alarming in what they expect. There is a fine line as a meteorologist that we have to walk trying to disseminate information to the public... you don't want to overhype an event... because even though everything looks like what you expect, all the models line up, everything is ready to go... the clouds linger tomorrow and nothing happens. Now faith is lost. Heck, most people already don't believe us anyway and a bust due to an overhyped forecast only strengthens their disbelief. The opposite is also true.

To get to your original question... depending on where your mother lives and how difficult it is transport her from place to place... I would wait until tomorrow morning and just keep an eye on the situation.

Now there should be storms tonight... but the severe stuff isn't expected until tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[bmrisko]

Thanks for the insight tam314...