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GFS18z spaghetti plots. Suddenly Out to sea is the least likely. Plenty of time still but looks like Irma waits for the cold front to move across the U.S and then she makes the move
Considering those plots any direct impact on NC with the storm heading inland instead of north and land falling on the outer banks... it would be horrendous even inland where I live.
Newbie here
No weather knowledge
But am in DFW TX and have family and friends impacted directly by Harvey
Have daughter and her family just south of Sarasota, FL and a 2nd home there
Could someone explain what might happen if the cold front does not move as anticipated?
If it slows or speeds up, what might that do to Irma's path/power?
The idea of two Cat 4 hurricanes and possible rain system like Harvey within 3 wks of each other is very dire...
Basically if it fails to capture Irma and force her northward, then an East Coast landfall south of Cape Hatteras is almost certain.
Where do you guys find the spaghetti models & projections like the euro and GFS?
In addition to the ones mentioned above you can also try: TropicalTidbits (Current Storm tab & Forecast Models tab)
Two others are behind a pay-wall (WeatherBell & AmericanWeather) but they post maps regularly on their twitter feeds for free! (And no twitter account/login required): @ryanmaue @raleighwx
Keep in mind the models all have their own little quirks and/or pick up things differently. But if different models align consistently run to run then confidence is high and you pay attention.
11pEST 2 September 2017: Winds 110mph, moving West 14mph, pressure 973mb. Storm should continue to generally head just South of due West to WSW over next 2 days or so. Conditions around the storm and the storm itself have stayed relatively the same all day so no real changes. Hurricane Hunter NOAA, Air Force (& maybe eventually the Global Hawk drone!) begin directly/continuously monitoring Irma Sunday so that data will start feeding into the models late Sunday into Monday and that hopefully provides the models with better data.
High confidence in storm heading near the northern/northeast Lesser Antilles (Guadeloupe, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis, Anguilla, St. Martin) too early to say how close and what effects they'll have but increasing threat for them; Watches may potentially be posted by Monday.
British/US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico & Hispaniola should monitor the storm as well for possible impacts (near or far) but too early to say past that still, but most models currently have storm just North of them but trend has been slowly edging storm down closer.
Turks & Caicos islands & Bahamas should monitor storm progress closely as many models bring a strong intensifying hurricane near or through the region. Models widely differ on where the storm will go as it enters this region still. Lot of components at work and their timing, strength, speed, etc, and even a typhoon that used to be near Japan all play a role in where Irma will go. I like the trend that models in the short term are coming more in agreement with each other (=higher confidence in track), but long term they're still jumping around and have all kinds of different solutions so we wait and watch.
Great job/idea for those that mentioned earlier they went ahead and got more water, batteries, gas, etc since you'll likely use it anyways and if the storm did come your way you've beaten the rush to stores.
Last edited by Psychoma; 09-02-2017 at 09:52 PM..
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