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9Jun18 8pPDT/11EDT - Tropical Depression Three-E organizes enough to become Tropical Storm Bud, the second named storm of the 2018 East North Pacific basin.
Winds 40mph, moving NW 10mph, pressure 1003mb.
Looks to quickly strengthen with very warm waters to feed off of and shear lessening. May parallel South Mexico coastline and head generally towards the Baja region but waters are cooler along Baja's west coast (storm would weaken quickly) but warm to support a storm between Baja and Mexico mainland (but land interaction by then would also lead to weakening). This could also eventually lead to increased rain chances in portions of the SW US. Rapid intensification can't be ruled out while off the Mexico coast.
Official storm stats come from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 2 & 8 am/pm PDT (5 & 11am/pm EDT), when/if Watches/Warnings are posted then they also add updates of 5 & 11am/pmPDT (2 & 8am/pm EDT): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Hurricane force winds(75mph+) extend up to 25miles from storm center.
Tropical Storm force winds (39-74mph) extend up to 145miles from storm center.
Tropical Storm Watch issued for Mexico coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. (Watch means Tropical Storm conditions are possible within 24-48 hours).
Rain of 3-6inches, isolated 10inches possible in parts of Mexico, flash flood & mudslide threat.
Hurricane force winds extend up to 35miles from storm center.
Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 125miles from storm center.
Ships report shows TS winds just offshore of the Tropical Storm Watch area.
Has maybe 24hours or so to intensify before colder waters force it to start weakening.
Expected to weaken to a Tropical Storm, maybe a chance of a low end hurricane, before reaching Baja region, where water temps don't support a stronger storm.
12Jun18 - 8aPDT/11aEDT Winds 125mph, moving NW 6mph, pressure 950mb. The expected weakening has begun.
Arizona and parts of New Mexico could see scattered rainfall of nearly 0.50 to 1+inches of rain this weekend into Monday as the remnants of Bud move into the US:
I'd take the strength of the storm reports with a grain of salt at least until other corroborating measurements are taken when it gets closer to land. NOAA tends to " exaggerate" strengths when nobody can challenge them.
I'd take the strength of the storm reports with a grain of salt at least until other corroborating measurements are taken when it gets closer to land. NOAA tends to " exaggerate" strengths when nobody can challenge them.
Unless aircraft recon (NOAA, US Air Force, or drone) is flying physically through the storm then they're just satellite based estimated winds, center point location, and pressure but experience with different satellite channels/view types shows they should be around the correct reported measurements. There's always controversy of a storms winds when affecting land due to the friction of the land changing the wind speeds (up or down) and the fact that we really don't have a wide net of measurement tools in place (ie: just airports, some towers, on the occasional building or here and there weather station). Over open waters or open flat fields wind speed can reach their peak at ground level, but throw in trees, buildings, hills, etc it changes the wind that will be measured. You also need storms/rain to help bring that wind to the surface so when a storm is falling apart at landfall strong winds may only be in part of the storm (ie: Irma's back half was mostly missing). Need more on the ground measuring tools/systems. So unless we know yes it's a guess but it's an educated guess.
13Jun18 - 5aPDT/8aEDT Winds 70mph, moving NNW 2mph, pressure 990mb. And now a Tropical Storm as continues to fall apart.
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