What's the end game with North Idaho prices rising nonstop? (Coeur d'Alene: leasing, home builders)

[NW Crow]

CDA metro grew by about 1500 per year last decade, much less than previous 2 decades. Next decade? Could grow by 2-3,000 per year, perhaps less, maybe 4-5,000.

CDA itself and Post Falls will probably get at least half the growth. Rathdrum will continue to get a share- one hundred to a couple hundred per year. Sandpoint might get a modest share, probably less than Rathdrum but maybe equal. Bonners Ferry and St. Maries might get some, probably dozens per year (or less).

[Mister Torgue]

Originally Posted by Boone1791

So "cost of living" is that high in Bozeman? The only thing I know about Bozeman is my Gibson Songwriter 12-string was made at Gibson's acoustic plant there in 2018.

Apparently some of the topics in the MT forum here have some posts that either scare people because they aren’t as welcoming to outsiders (thanks Cali) or there is a measurable difference in COL (cost of living) in MT..? That’s what I need to find out because I just may take the job if offered then once I’m there begin scouting for property in NID. I figured someone here in the Idaho forum is more likely to give me truer unfiltered information on the subject which is why I mentioned it.

[nm9stheham]

Bozeman and Gallatin County MT (which includes Big Sky) has been a growth area in recent years, kinda like Missoula was 15-20 years ago. Boise is in that same mode, of being a desired destination for the latest stampede. I don't think the mentality of the Western gold and silver rushes of the past has changed!



The comment that this will be like SF will be true to some extent. SF has gone through several up and down cycles in the last 40 or so years, with some drops in-between. Anytime you get the bidding wars on property, like lately in Boise, prices are going to overshoot where they should be.



Boise was starting up on a big price increase when the recession hit in 2007, and it had a big drop. Now is is zooming again. Here is the graph for Boise house prices from and authoritative source: The St Louis Federal Reserve. You can find all sorts of house price histories with them.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS14260Q



BTW: Property taxes can go up with or without property value changes, if the municipality needs the money. In ID, property is re-assessed every year, and the tax rate reset to get the desired tax income. (This has been discussed here several times, and examples given for Boise.) If taxes go up with or without higher housing prices, it is either more government (growth means facilities need to be expanded), less government efficiency, or higher government operating costs (like pensions and so forth).

[banjomike]

Interesting website, nm9...
Boise's housing prices are almost identical to the state's in comparable graphs. The same booms and busts, but the state booms are a bit higher, and the busts aren't quite as deep.

This follows what I've suspected for many months; CDA is far from the only hot migration spot here. It's only one of many now, and the boom is statewide. In a seller's market like this, it's doubtful home prices will go down anytime soon.

How high could the prices go in CDA? I think good comparisons may not be possible in our state, as CDA is the only city of its size that has lakeshore.

[Mister Torgue]

Originally Posted by nm9stheham

Bozeman and Gallatin County MT (which includes Big Sky) has been a growth area in recent years, kinda like Missoula was 15-20 years ago. Boise is in that same mode, of being a desired destination for the latest stampede. I don't think the mentality of the Western gold and silver rushes of the past has changed!



The comment that this will be like SF will be true to some extent. SF has gone through several up and down cycles in the last 40 or so years, with some drops in-between. Anytime you get the bidding wars on property, like lately in Boise, prices are going to overshoot where they should be.



Boise was starting up on a big price increase when the recession hit in 2007, and it had a big drop. Now is is zooming again. Here is the graph for Boise house prices from and authoritative source: The St Louis Federal Reserve. You can find all sorts of house price histories with them.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS14260Q



BTW: Property taxes can go up with or without property value changes, if the municipality needs the money. In ID, property is re-assessed every year, and the tax rate reset to get the desired tax income. (This has been discussed here several times, and examples given for Boise.) If taxes go up with or without higher housing prices, it is either more government (growth means facilities need to be expanded), less government efficiency, or higher government operating costs (like pensions and so forth).

Thank you for your insightful post. Do you think the COL of MT is substantially higher than ID or even here in TX where it’s getting ridiculous?

[nm9stheham]

The St Louis Fed orgnatization is a wealth of info like this. They seem to be unique amongst all the Fed branches in this regard. I even found a study of the Spanish flu epidemic published by the St Louis Fed, IIRC around 12 years ago, which was instructive on what to expect on the present pandemic.

One one thing that occurs to me, BJM, is that the Idaho statewide price index will closely follow Boise and CdA, simply because those 2 markets comprise the big majority of house sales in the state. So the price history in places like Salmon or Challis or Moscow can be completely different.

It will take some time for any downward price trend to take hold.... it takes a while for seller's price expectations to change, and if the present high prices are not to be had due to demand slowing in winter (like it typically does), then some property just may go off the market, and then inventory will get even tighter in the spring, and bang-o another price hike. Talk about your predictive crapshoot LOL.

And, we don't know what this winter has in store for the 'corona bug'; the case mortality rate may stay down and keep going down like it has across the US. The introduction of a vaccine may indirectly help the housing price market. If the fear of the more crowded spaces dissipates, we may see a reversal of the 'flight to safety' that is helping to drive this price jump in less urban area across much of the country.

[oregonwoodsmoke]

Originally Posted by Mister Torgue

......there is a measurable difference in COL (cost of living) in MT..?........ I figured someone here in the Idaho forum is more likely to give me truer unfiltered information on the subject which is why I mentioned it.

I'm a bit mystified why you would think that people who live in North Idaho would be up to date on the cost of living in Bozeman MT.

[Mister Torgue]

Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke

I'm a bit mystified why you would think that people who live in North Idaho would be up to date on the cost of living in Bozeman MT.

Lots of reasons. But I’ll just satisfy your curiosity with one reason, because of members like nm9stheham and the information they provided no matter the scale. Even if no one said a word I’d still be ok with it.

[nowhereman427]

Originally Posted by banjomike

Interesting website, nm9...
Boise's housing prices are almost identical to the state's in comparable graphs. The same booms and busts, but the state booms are a bit higher, and the busts aren't quite as deep.

This follows what I've suspected for many months; CDA is far from the only hot migration spot here. It's only one of many now, and the boom is statewide. In a seller's market like this, it's doubtful home prices will go down anytime soon.

How high could the prices go in CDA? I think good comparisons may not be possible in our state, as CDA is the only city of its size that has lakeshore.

Are the interest rates at a all time low?

[nm9stheham]

Originally Posted by Mister Torgue

Thank you for your insightful post. Do you think the COL of MT is substantially higher than ID or even here in TX where it’s getting ridiculous?

I am not sure I have a good answer. In what way is the TX COL getting our of hand? Property taxes? Cost of houses? Rents?

MT has higher vehicle taxes, and a higher property tax rate, but little sales/excise tax, and a moderate income tax rate. So it is the usual conundrum: What are you exact financial circumstances? If you have a big house, you are going to perceive the COL as higher in much of MT. Average tax burden in MT is generally a bit lower (again not by much) for the average citizen Vs ID. I personally would not make a decision based on the small difference; it is not like IL or NJ.

My personal perception is that the price of goods ought not be much different. But simple things like ID having a gasoline pipeline that is 'further out' can effect things like the cost of fuel. Here is an interesting map, IMHO: https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-...-the-pipelines

MT seems to be further 'along the curve' to developing bigger and more gov't, especially in the high growth areas with higher end owners/residents, like Bozeman and Missoula, and maybe Kalispell and Helena and a few others. 'further along the curve' for houses means things like a statewide GIS system for tax records, and more codes and code enforcement. IIRC, MT has adopted a statewide residential building code but ID and WY have residential building code adoption as a local county option.

Also things like codes, fees, and special taxes can have a very real impact. Great example: In Teton County WY (Jackson Hole area), if you build a house, then several big fees may come into play, depending on the house size, configuration, and location. Your building plans have to be prepared by an engineering firm for over modest size (ka$ching), the county charges thousands of $$ just to review the plans (ka$ching), you may need reviews for things like impacts on wild herd movements and fire areas, you may have to pay an 'affordable housing fee' (to help fund low-income housing) as part of getting the permit (ka$ching), and there are odd rules for square footage counting for higher permits fees like if the basement is more than 50% of the ground or if the garage is attached. (Yes, a detached garage counts as more square footage than the same garage attached in Teton County WY.) I spoke with the building dept there while working through those costs for a single story house of 2000 sq ft above ground on a 2000 sq ft basement, with 2 bay attached garage home in that county, and all these fees added up to around $30,000 + or -. Wowzer... And those are just the fees to the county..... the costs to work through everything for someone not building their own home has to be thrown on top of that (above and beyond the structural engineering fees).

The above is an outlier of how costly it can be, but when you consider going 1 county east to Fremont County WY, where there are not codes enforced outside of the town limits except the WY state electrical code, and no such fees, you can see the ways in which local gov't involvement can significantly drive up house costs.