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Old 10-24-2014, 01:54 PM
 
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Someone () started investing in their jobs 401k in 1990 - i.e. 24 years ago.

Estimated say 230,000 in their money, some of which would have been matched by the company.
So say 250,000

They have about 400,000 in the account now.

So the account has increased by only 150,000 in 24 years.

How do you figure that as a rate of return?
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Old 10-24-2014, 02:46 PM
 
Location: California side of the Sierras
11,162 posts, read 7,651,588 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giesela View Post
Someone () started investing in their jobs 401k in 1990 - i.e. 24 years ago.

Estimated say 230,000 in their money, some of which would have been matched by the company.
So say 250,000

They have about 400,000 in the account now.

So the account has increased by only 150,000 in 24 years.

How do you figure that as a rate of return?
You would have to know how much was contributed each year.
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Old 10-24-2014, 06:20 PM
 
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Why? Why can't you use the total of money contributed for 24 years? Ok - so divide by 24.
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Old 10-24-2014, 06:45 PM
 
Location: San Jose
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giesela View Post
Why? Why can't you use the total of money contributed for 24 years? Ok - so divide by 24.
Not that simple. They could have contributed a large amount in terrible investments, or vice versa. You're missing a variable.
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Old 10-24-2014, 07:56 PM
 
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If you take the 150,000 you earned, and divide it by the 250,000 you contributed, you get 0.60 or 60%, so 150,000 is 60% of 250,000. Now this is the average % gain over 24 years, now divide .60 by 24 and your average annual rate of return would be 0.025 or 2.5%.

(150000/25000)=0.60

0.60/24=0.025 or 2.5%
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Old 10-24-2014, 08:04 PM
 
Location: San Jose
574 posts, read 697,833 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eccotecc View Post
If you take the 150,000 you earned, and divide it by the 250,000 you contributed, you get 0.60 or 60%, so 150,000 is 60% of 250,000. Now this is the average % gain over 24 years, now divide .60 by 24 and your average annual rate of return would be 0.025 or 2.5%.

(150000/25000)=0.60

0.60/24=0.025 or 2.5%
This doesn't work either, as the money slowly built up through time. Money contributed earlier had more time to accrue interest than money added later.

The only way to make this work is to make a lot of assumptions, such as that the amount of money contributed each year was the same (which is not true), or that it rose each year with inflation, etc. I'm sure there's a calculator that does this based on a chosen interest rate, but in this case you're looking to solve for the interest rate.
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Old 10-24-2014, 08:12 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eccotecc View Post
If you take the 150,000 you earned, and divide it by the 250,000 you contributed, you get 0.60 or 60%, so 150,000 is 60% of 250,000. Now this is the average % gain over 24 years, now divide .60 by 24 and your average annual rate of return would be 0.025 or 2.5%.

(150000/25000)=0.60

0.60/24=0.025 or 2.5%
Even if it were 60% that would be wrong since investments are accrued every single year and rate returns work in exponential form therefore you can't just divide it.

Your 2.5% is wrong and cannot be achieved as 60% divided by 24

The correct form is (1+r)^(1/n) or 1.6^(1/24) which would give you a rr of 1.97% a year. You may think this is small but with higher nmbers the differnces start to be really huge
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Old 10-24-2014, 08:31 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lusitano_ View Post
Even if it were 60% that would be wrong since investments are accrued every single year and rate returns work in exponential form therefore you can't just divide it.

Your 2.5% is wrong and cannot be achieved as 60% divided by 24

The correct form is (1+r)^(1/n) or 1.6^(1/24) which would give you a rr of 1.97% a year. You may think this is small but with higher nmbers the differnces start to be really huge
Sorry but this is correct for the average annual rate of return.

Average Annual Return | How To Calculate

The 0.60 has to be divided by 24 years.

I used the figures we were given. Could have also calculated: 400000/250000-1/24

Last edited by eccotecc; 10-24-2014 at 08:41 PM..
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Old 10-24-2014, 08:44 PM
 
2,236 posts, read 2,980,603 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RecentGrad1 View Post
This doesn't work either, as the money slowly built up through time. Money contributed earlier had more time to accrue interest than money added later.

The only way to make this work is to make a lot of assumptions, such as that the amount of money contributed each year was the same (which is not true), or that it rose each year with inflation, etc. I'm sure there's a calculator that does this based on a chosen interest rate, but in this case you're looking to solve for the interest rate.
Your absolutely correct but we have to use the facts we have to try and get a ballpark average annual rate of return.
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Old 10-25-2014, 09:33 AM
 
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Thank you for giving me a ballpark. Personally its the end number that matters. People who believe stocks are the way to go are always blah blah blahing down in the weeds about really complicated numbers.

How much did my money earn in average over x amount of years? That's what matters to people trying to figure out whether to put it in CD, or bury it in the back yard, or whatever.

And yes the person could suck at investments. Which is why its important to know that bottom line number. I suck at investments. I do not have some highly paid investment firm doing this for me. I do have the L fund managers at TSP doing just as badly as I did which does not make me happy.

So....a rough figure of 1.97. Barely better than the recent low rates at a bank. And probably going to get worse as I continue to lose in the downturn.

I think 401k's and stocks stuck for the average (or ok, below average) guy.

Feeling scared and p*ssed.
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